Why an opposition win in Istanbul weakens Erdo臒an鈥檚 grip
| Istanbul and Lisbon
For the true believers of Turkey鈥檚 ruling party, the opposition鈥檚 victory Sunday in Istanbul mayor鈥檚 race was inconceivable.
鈥淚t鈥檚 impossible, absolutely impossible,鈥� that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) could lose, predicted Ertu臒rul, a volunteer at a party kiosk on the eve of the vote.
And yet the AKP did lose control of Turkey鈥檚 commercial capital, decisively, in a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an that marks the further erosion of power of the Islam-rooted AKP, which has dominated Turkish politics for nearly two decades.
Why We Wrote This
A loss at the mayoral level by Turkey鈥檚 ruling party hardly heralds the end of President Erdo臒an鈥檚 authoritarian rule. What it does mean: The opposition is learning how to win.
Istanbul鈥檚 new mayor Ekrem 陌mamo臒lu 鈥� who ruled for 18 days in April, before his victory was annulled 鈥� declared that authoritarian rule has been dented in Turkey.
鈥淲e are starting a new page in Istanbul. On this new page there will be justice, equality, love,鈥� Mr. 陌mamo臒lu told supporters, as street celebrations erupted across the city. The people of Istanbul, he said, 鈥渉ave refreshed our belief in democracy [and] showed the world that Turkey still protects its democracy.鈥�
Indeed, Mr. 陌mamo臒lu, of the opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP), not only repeated his victory of March 31, when Turkey held national and local elections. He widened the margin of defeat for the AKP from 13,000 votes to some 775,000, in a city that was the launch pad of the AKP鈥檚 transformative political movement.
鈥淎 lot of folks I know were always wondering whether even their grandkids would ever see the end of the AKP,鈥� said Azize, a Ph.D. student, on election night. 鈥淏ut now, they lost Ankara, Antalya, and today Istanbul,鈥� she said, referring to other opposition-run municipalities. 鈥淣ow we鈥檙e thinking that we might see the AKP fall from power even in our own lifetimes.鈥�
During relentless campaigning this spring, Mr. Erdo臒an had cast the elections as one of national 鈥渟urvival,鈥� and said: 鈥淚f we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey.鈥� Mr. Erdo臒an, himself a former mayor of Istanbul, blasted Mr. 陌mamo臒lu as leading 鈥淐HP fascists鈥� who worked with 鈥渢errorists.鈥�
Days before the vote, Mr. Erdo臒an declared, 鈥淭he worst thing that could happen to Istanbul would be for CHP fascism, which we saw in the Gezi [2013 anti-Erdo臒an protests] and many other cases, to once again descend like a nightmare upon the city.鈥�
But on Sunday, the AKP candidate Binali Yildirim 鈥� a founder of the AKP, and a former prime minister and speaker of parliament 鈥� had to concede defeat in a city that is home to 18% of Turkey鈥檚 population and produces 32% of its economic output. Mr. 陌mamo臒lu won 54% of the vote, and Mr. Yildirim聽45%.
A 鈥榝ormula to win鈥�
鈥淭here is no doubt that [the] AKP has hit a glass ceiling and is in decline, in terms of its electoral power,鈥� says Asli Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, a Turkey expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
鈥淭his is mathematically evident that they are in decline. That doesn鈥檛 necessarily mean the end of the Erdo臒an era,鈥� she says.
鈥淭he country is undergoing a recession, and their votes have fallen significantly since 2015 levels,鈥� she says. She notes that the AKP majority in parliament depends on an alliance with an ultra-nationalist party and that splinter groups have formed within the AKP.
Moreover, the opposition, 鈥渇inally after two decades, understand the formula to win.鈥�
That formula included support from disenfranchised ethnic Kurds, who have felt the brunt of the AKP鈥檚 military-led crackdown on separatism and militants. Around 15% of Istanbul鈥檚 population is Kurdish.
Turkey鈥檚 shriveled economy has also been a factor in handing the opposition control of nine of Turkey鈥檚 10 largest metropolitan areas. Mr. Yildirim聽promised voters in Istanbul a host of financial benefits, from free data roaming for mobile phones to cheaper public transport.
The election result is a 鈥渂low to the political prestige of Erdo臒an鈥� as well as the AKP, which used Istanbul鈥檚 wealth and control of large contracts to finance the spread of its movement, says Sinan 脺lgen, a former Turkish diplomat and head of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul.
鈥淭he importance of Istanbul, for any political movement, just cannot be overstated,鈥� says Mr. 脺lgen.
鈥淚 would see this as a bit of rebalancing of the Turkish political landscape, [because] 65% of Turkey鈥檚 GDP would fall under the control of the opposition, in terms of local government,鈥� he says.
But he cautions against 鈥渆xaggerating the impact鈥� on national politics, since Erdo臒an remains at the helm of an all-powerful executive presidency, with elections not due before 2023.
Still, over time the CHP 鈥� the party founded a century ago by the secular father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atat眉rk 鈥� may use local governance to revitalize its powerbase, as the AKP once did.
It remains to be seen how smart they will be, in translating these increased capabilities into a more effective political strategy,鈥� says Mr. 脺lgen.
A party machine sputters
Either way, the loss of Istanbul spells trouble for Mr. Erdo臒an, and could deepen the divisions within the AKP.
鈥淭he days of Erdo臒an comfortably winning elections, like a piece of cake, are over. It鈥檚 getting much trickier for him,鈥� says Ms. Aydinta艧ba艧.
The AKP candidate Mr. Yildirim聽seemed to indicate as much during a lackluster campaign in which he had every advantage of the AKP political machine, but that machine appeared worn out, and he sometimes appeared reluctant to engage.
He arrived, for example, at Turkey鈥檚 first televised debate 颅in 22 years just minutes before the three-hour spectacle went live, while his rival was in his seat 40 minutes early.
And before a speech last week, Mr. Yildirim聽spoke off-camera to a Turkish television journalist setting up her microphones. She asked how he was doing.
鈥淭hanks,鈥� Mr. Yildirim聽replied, then laughed. 鈥淛ust don鈥檛 forget me after the election.鈥�
A correspondent for the Monitor provided election-day reporting from Istanbul.
