海角大神

The euphoria听last month听of听the Kurds who moved forward with a controversial听referendum听on independence in Iraqi Kurdistan is quickly giving way to alarm as the central government of Iraq and powerful regional neighbors make good on their听pledges听to push back.

Predictably,听conflict听has听flared听in the oil-rich city and region of Kirkuk, long at the heart of tensions between the Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government and the central authorities in Baghdad. Iraqi federal forces moved in late听Sunday听and were quickly within city limits and in charge of key installations in the area, including two major oil fields.

Of special concern to the Kurds, analysts noted, was Baghdad鈥檚 growing coordination with both Turkey and Iran, all keen to make sure that any independent Kurdish state is thwarted. Another concern is that US policy in the region has been so focused on fighting the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) that other local and regional struggles have been overlooked.

Kirkuk, home to Arabs and Turkmen as well as Kurds, came under the control of the Kurdish peshmerga听forces in the summer of 2014, when the Iraqi Army melted away in the face of a rapid advance by ISIS forces. It was the sun-kissed Kurdish flag rather than the black jihadist banner that finally rose triumphant over checkpoints and government installations of Kirkuk,听but that did not end the dispute over who was rightly in charge of the city.

Kurdish authorities insisted on holding the Sept. 25 independence referendum in Kirkuk as well as other disputed territories that fall outside their autonomous region. The vote was vehemently rejected by Baghdad, with the Iraqi Supreme Court ruling that it was unconstitutional.

Turkey and Iran, concerned that an independent Kurdistan could inspire their own restive Kurdish minorities,听also opposed it in the strongest terms and took some punitive measures.

In the conflict-prone region, only Israel stood out by voicing clear support听for the Iraqi Kurds鈥� move, but analysts say it is unlikely to get involved if conflict ensues.

The international community largely opposed听the poll even though Kurdish authorities said it was non-binding. Baghdad, however, has ruled out any dialogue with Erbil unless the referendum result is declared null. Its military offensive on energy-rich and strategic Kirkuk shows it is not willing to accept a fait accompli.

Divisions among Kurds

On Monday, the Kurdish flag was lowered听at the provincial council building, signaling a shift in the balance of power that will be difficult for a听large segment of听Kurdish forces to听stomach or听reverse. But听the September referendum and events in Kirkuk has听also laid bare enduring divisions among Iraqi Kurds.

The opposition Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)听had only supported听the referendum when it became clear that it was moving forward no matter what. The quick fall of Kirkuk and limited bloodshed so far is attributed by Kurdish security officials and analysts to the withdrawal of PUK forces.

They were the dominant power in the city, and pulled out with their heavy weapons.

There have been reports of clashes and casualties as a result of the Kirkuk offensive, but no side has given a death toll.听The development puts the United States, which has backed both Kurdish forces and Iraqi forces in the fight against听ISIS, in delicate position and raises the specter of further escalation.

The Peshmerga General Command听in Erbil issued a statement saying the attack was 鈥渁 flagrant declaration of war against the nation of Kurdistan.鈥� It warned the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi would pay a 鈥渉eavy price鈥� for initiating the conflict.

The statement slammed PUK officials for abandoning strategic areas to the mainly Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi forces and听what it said were听Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guards. And it decried the use of American weapons that had been given to Iraqi forces in the context of fighting ISIS.

US Sen. John McCain听was more outspoken, expressing听concern over reports that Iranian-backed forces were part of the assault and听over听the 鈥渕isuse鈥� of US听weapons.听The attack on Kirkuk began two days after the Trump administration slapped new sanctions against Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is influential in Iraq.

鈥淭he United States provided equipment and training to the government of Iraq to fight ISIS and secure itself from external threats 鈥� not to attack elements of one of its own regional governments, which is a longstanding and valuable partner of the United States,鈥澨齋enator McCain听said.

Cracks in the alliance

Analysts have long been warning that US partners in the war against ISIS in Iraq were heading for a fight, a risk that has been exacerbated by the Kurdish referendum moving forward and the near-complete defeat of ISIS in Iraq and neighboring Syria.

Kurdish officials see no reason to cede territory that they helped protect from ISIS. As a Kirkuk front line commander, Kamal Kirkuki, put it to 海角大神 ahead of the referendum: 鈥淭he only thing tying us to Baghdad is the fight against ISIS.鈥�

Even听though Mr.听Abadi initially signaled that there would be no force used in the dispute with the KRG, Iranian-backed militias had been making threats against Kurdish听peshmerga听in Kirkuk in the wake of the referendum, says Ahmad Majidyar,听director of the IranObserved Project at the Middle East Institute.

鈥�(Kurdish President听Masoud)听Barzani didn鈥檛 think that the Baghdad government would send forces to recapture those disputed areas in Kirkuk,鈥� says Mr. Majidyar. 鈥淭he decision that the Baghdad government has taken has been taken in consultation with Iran and Turkey. That puts the Barzani leadership at a complete disadvantage.鈥�

US officials tried to dissuade the Kurdish leadership from holding the referendum听Sept. 25, but they were not successful, he adds.听The main reason why this political tension is developing into a military one at a time that the US has significant presence and influence in Iraq,听he says,听is because Washington has focused exclusively on the fight against ISIS and overlooked political developments in Iraq and also neighboring Syria.

鈥淚t is Major General Qassem Suleimani, who is the head of Iran鈥檚 Quds force, who is mediating between the [Kurds and Baghdad]听and shaping the future of Kirkuk,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t's not the United States.鈥�

Risk of escalation

Analysts say that the fact that most of the听peshmerga听forces left their Kirkuk strongholds without a real fight is what听prevented major bloodshed, but warn the underlying reasons that brought about this situation听and the risks of escalation remain in place when neighbors are adamant to prevent an economically viable and independent Kurdistan.

Washington-based Middle East defense analyst听Farzin Nadimi says that by taking Kirkuk and restoring its control over oil resources, Baghdad has increased leverage to push the Kurds into a negotiated settlement. It remains to be seen if Iraqi federal forces try to advance deeper into the Kurdish heartland.

鈥淚ran wasted no time in condemning and taking action to oppose this referendum,鈥� says Mr. Nadimi. 鈥淎nd they will continue to do so.鈥�

While some criticize Mr. Barzani for overplaying his hand and pushing forward with the referendum rather than postponing it, others point out that no time would have been deemed auspicious by the international community to redraw the borders of the Middle East.

鈥淥bviously they didn鈥檛 expect this level of opposition,鈥� says Nadimi. 鈥淚ran and Turkey have had a very long history of Kurdish counterinsurgency, and they would听by no means accept an independent Kurdistan on their borders that would be a model for their own Kurdish population.鈥�