Is Trump's travel ban really a 'blessed ban' for ISIS?
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For liberal critics, as well as some Republicans, President Trump鈥檚 temporary travel ban couldn鈥檛 have been a better gift to Islamic State militants, the same terror group that Mr. Trump has pledged to crush. Some arguments say the ban, which blocked US admittance of travelers from seven majority-Muslim countries for 90 days, could give the appearance that the West agrees that it is indeed at war with Islam 鈥 IS's worldview 鈥 thereby buoying recruitment and funding for a group whose star was fading.
But in the immediate wake of the executive order, that argument was more speculative than concrete, based on assumptions derived from what experts have said about how Islamist terror groups attract new members, rather than in how IS actually responded to the news.
Some evidence has since emerged: IS-friendly chatrooms, where sentiment tends to reflect that of the group鈥檚 rank and file, have pointed to the order as evidence of a 鈥渃lash of civilizations,鈥 terrorism expert Mia Bloom . And New York Times terrorism correspondent Rukmini Callimachi, reporting from Mosul, tweeted that one resident of an IS-controlled part of the city said that IS members had been 鈥渙penly celebrating鈥 the ban, dubbing it the 鈥淏lessed Ban鈥 鈥 an echo of Al Qaeda鈥檚 term for the 鈥渂lessed invasion鈥 of Iraq in 2003.
But IS propaganda outlets have remained silent about the ban, a silence that聽appears to hint at less-than-obvious strategizing from the group鈥檚 leadership and underscoring the聽complex sources of the group鈥檚 appeal.
"叠测听苍辞飞听飞别听丑补惫别听蝉别别苍听滨厂滨厂听尘别尘产别谤蝉听补苍诲听蝉耻辫辫辞谤迟别谤蝉听箩耻尘辫颈苍驳听耻辫听&补尘辫;听诲辞飞苍听飞颈迟丑听驳濒别别听补迟听产补苍,鈥 聽in a tweet on Wednesday.
"Yet we still have not seen an *official* ISIS statement regarding the ban and Trump. By contrast, al-Qaeda has put out several," she went on.
"I have to say I don't get that. Why is ISIS in its official pronouncements being silent on Trump & on the ban?"
The visa ban adds an element of uncertainty to the campaign against IS, banning citizens from Iraq 鈥 a close military ally and one of the campaign鈥檚 leaders 鈥 at a time when the US-backed coalition has expressed confidence that it could drive the group from remaining strongholds over the next several months. But it鈥檚 unclear whether it could conjure a waning aura of excitement surrounding IS, a factor some experts say has been overlooked in dissections of its appeal.
"It is phenomenally exciting for them to be part of this, this secret club,鈥 said John Horgan, of the University of Massachusetts' Center for Terrorism and Security Studies, in a 2015 interview with the Associated Press. "And once that takes root ... that excitement completely outweighs anything we can do to try to counter it."
Elsewhere, the ban's galvanizing of other hardline, fundamentalist opponents of the United States has been clearer. In Iran, Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei heralded it as the 鈥渢rue face of America.鈥
The effect, analysts say, may be the opposite of what鈥檚 intended: spurring average Iranians to rally around a ruling system whose hard lines they often chafe against.聽聽海角大神鈥檚 Scott Peterson reported this week:
鈥淚f Trump intended to damage Iran, he missed it, as the nation now is gathering behind the聽nezam聽[governing system] and supporting it,鈥 says an Iranian official in Tehran who asked not to be named.聽
鈥淎s long as [US] policies target the聽nezam, people would say that it is the system which wants to be the black sheep and does not abide by international norms,鈥 says the official. 鈥淏ut now it is different鈥. Trump is putting back in place the small parts of that wall of distrust that were [pulled down] by the nuclear deal.鈥
For terror groups, though, officials of enemy states can embolden them, "but not always in as visible or simple a way as is often implied," said Charlie Winter, a senior research fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, .
"I am in no doubt that Trump's executive order will make the lives of ISIS and its like-minded rivals easier, but I would be wary of drawing too linear a link."