海角大神

On the fringes of Iran鈥檚 shriveled salt lake,聽once among the world's largest,聽are two competing visions of the future.

One is a desiccated apocalypse, where farmers with dirt-stained hands uproot dead trees from their parched land, and where wells that once flowed with sweet water are so聽salty聽that cows won鈥檛 touch it.

鈥淓ven if you are about to die, you can鈥檛 drink that water,鈥� says farmer Askar Alizadeh, surrounded by the twisted remains of torn-out trees聽near the former shoreline. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a catastrophe.鈥�

Yet a few miles away, just inland from this basin-turned-salt flat in northwest Iran, is a more promising vision. A pilot project is reclaiming an endangered farm with an efficient and pressurized irrigation system 鈥� the black plastic piping woven among grape vines and plum trees in the late-winter sun 鈥� that聽over the last three years聽has slashed water usage聽by聽80 percent and raised crop yields.

鈥淭hey have become new again,鈥� says Abdulali Aghabalazadeh, pointing in awe to new bark and stems on his farm. Other trees, just a few steps away but irrigated the old way, are stunted, have blotchy bark and are 鈥渞uined,鈥澛爃e adds.

Call it the perfect environmental storm that Iran is now trying to fix聽after decades of water mismanagement and wasteful practices聽that聽critically threaten agriculture and human health,聽and have now become a top security issue for聽President Hassan Rouhani鈥檚 administration. 聽

The salt-encrusted lakebed is only the most obvious example of聽a water crisis 鈥� yet hardly the worst 鈥� that is聽belatedly聽spurring Iran聽into聽action.

At Lake Urmia and elsewhere, Iran is adopting water technologies used widely for decades in other countries, including perennial foe Israel. Whether it succeeds in reversing the trend of water depletion could be聽a test case聽in聽an unstable, parched region where dams restrict cross-border water flows, and聽growing populations face a thirsty future.

鈥淗istorically water has led to the creation of civilizations, and to their destruction,鈥� says Davoodreza Arab, a water expert from Sharif University and member of a commission tasked with tackling Urmia鈥檚 water crisis. 鈥淧reserving the water for us is preserving our identity.鈥�

A thirsty nation

Even among thirsty countries Iran is in a category by itself, consuming almost twice as much of its renewable water (81 percent) as the next heaviest global user Egypt (46 percent).聽Lake Urmia, which聽the UN heralded as a biosphere in 1976, is now another Dead Sea that has shrunk in volume by 90 percent in聽the past聽decade.

Mr. Rouhani said last October that saving Lake Urmia was 鈥渧ery important鈥� and warned that聽wind storms spreading exposed salt particles could 鈥渄isrupt people鈥檚 breathing and destroy farming lands鈥澛爄n 10 of Iran鈥檚 31 provinces.聽In December he said agriculture and food security was more important than 鈥渢he range of our missiles鈥� in measuring Iran鈥檚 national power.

But the challenge is formidable. Iran鈥檚 annual rainfall of 200mm is one-third the global average, while the evaporation rate is thrice the world norm.聽A rapidly growing population faces perennial drought, a threat that is heightened by a sharp 20 percent decrease in rainfall in the past two decades, the result of global warming that scientists say afflicts many of the Middle East鈥檚 already arid countries.

鈥淲e are facing a hotter, drier future in this region, and Iran is at the epicenter of this crisis,鈥� says Gary Lewis, the United Nations Resident Coordinator for Iran.

For years, there has been fearful talk of summertime rationing of water in the capital, Tehran聽鈥� an action that would signal the gravity of Iran鈥檚 water crisis. At least a dozen provinces will have to be evacuated in the next 20 years if trends are not reversed, a water official told the Financial Times last August. Thousands of villages in Iran already rely on water tankers, the paper reported.聽

鈥淓ven if we have normal rainfall, we are going to face problems,鈥� says Issa Kalantari, a former three-time agriculture minister who heads the commission to restore Lake Urmia.

The agricultural sector absorbs 90 percent of Iran鈥檚 water, but yields just 15 percent of the nation鈥檚 GDP. Iranian households, too, are known for wasteful practices such as leaving taps on and using fresh water to hose down dusty courtyards and baking streets.

The Lake Urmia test case

To restore Lake Urmia, Iran has drawn up an ambitious $5 billion plan to boost the volume of water over the next decade five-fold from the current 2.5 million cubic meters. It鈥檚 unclear where the money will be found in an economy hammered by sanctions, low oil prices, and mismanagement. But officials say the government has made the project a priority and that mitigation is a cost-effective response.

鈥淭he lake is a pilot study for our water policies around the whole country,鈥� says Mr. Kalantari. 鈥淲e should reduce water usage for agriculture to at least 50 percent of renewable resources, or the country will be destroyed for lack of water supplies.鈥澛�

Iran is studying examples of lake conservation from the Great Salt Lake in Utah to the Aral Sea in Central Asia, and tapping into global expertise.聽But efforts have so far been slow. Last March, a panel of experts convened jointly by the UN and Iran鈥檚 government concluded that since 2010 plans 鈥渉ave not yet delivered significant action on the ground.鈥�

Under the 10-year plan, officials aim to cut water supplies for farmers by 40 percent, while maintaining their聽current output with smarter irrigation techniques. Some $1 billion is聽earmarked聽to compensate farmers; another $1 billion is to improve irrigation methods. Water-intensive crops like wheat that were once the norm are now being replaced by less thirsty ones. 聽

Then there are the 37 big and small dams聽built on waterways that feed the shriveled lake. Officials have suspended five new dams under construction. And a rash of illegal wells 鈥撀爊early half of the 88,000 sunk in the region 鈥撀燼re sucking dry aquifers that are hard to replenish.

Lake Urmia may be the poster child of Iran鈥檚 water shortage,聽but there are many others at greater risk. In the parched northeast, Khorasan province uses 130 percent of its renewable water, and the shrine city of Mashhad 鈥� where well water levels are dropping half a meter per year 鈥� is hostage to dams in nearby Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.聽

Likewise, in Shiraz to the south,聽farmers struggle with increasingly salty water. In central Isfahan, the river that shapes that historic city has dried up, turning farms to desert and affecting 2 million people who depend on farming. The Hamoun wetlands shared with Afghanistan to the southeast have virtually dried up too, and聽residents are scoured by increasingly frequent dust storms.

鈥淥ther regions are facing a more difficult situation, but we don鈥檛 see it because they don鈥檛 have a salt lake,鈥� says Kalantari. 鈥淭his is a bigger threat to Iran than the US or Israel.鈥�

The ghost town

Along a causeway that splits Lake Urmia in half, Iranians take a weekend drive to the salt-white shore to gawk at large boats moored in the mud, or to scrape off layers of salt to take home. Maryam, a housewife, says she used to swim here with her friends. 鈥淲e come here less and less because we feel sad,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like someone has passed away.鈥�

On the western edge聽of the lake, a young Iranian couple holds hands as they walk along the salt-encrusted聽lakebed. A聽nearby resort聽is virtually deserted, its picnic and ping-pong tables, playground toys, showers and changing rooms, all聽bereft of customers. On this bright, clear winter day, the actual water鈥檚 edge can鈥檛 even be seen.聽

Water activities have given way to Go Karts and flying model planes, in a bid to keep the lakefront resort alive. Up along the main road, paddleboats shaped like swans sit high and dry, and fade and crack in the sun.

鈥淚f this continues one or two more years, we can鈥檛 live here,鈥� says farmhand Hashem Salehi, sitting at a teashop in the village of Imam Zadeh. 鈥淚f the lake disappears and the salt comes up, life will be impossible.鈥�

鈥淓ven if the president himself says it, I don鈥檛 believe it. It鈥檚 all air,鈥澛燼dds another unemployed farmhand聽at the teashop. 鈥淓very year they say the lake will come back, but nothing happens. Why should we believe them?鈥�

The plan鈥檚 price tag for Lake Urmia may seem expensive, given Iran鈥檚 current economic woes. But the alternatives 鈥撀爏alt storms wrecking agriculture, freshwater wells turned to saline, spiraling health costs and the evacuation of residents from uninhabitable areas 鈥撀爈ooks even worse.

At a rough estimate, officials suggest that the wholesale relocation of Tabriz city, which has 2 million residents, would cost $500 billion, far more than Iran鈥檚 entire annual economic output.

Unless improvements are made, residents face 鈥渓iving essentially in a salt bowl, where dust is blowing around like a whirlwind in a Martian landscape,鈥� says the UN鈥檚 Mr. Lewis. 鈥淭hen you can鈥檛 sell apples and crops 鈥� nobody will eat them because you don鈥檛 want to bite into salt.鈥�

A revolutionary sucking sound

After聽seizing power in 1979, Iran鈥檚聽clerics聽tried聽to become self-sufficient in agriculture, but had little technical know-how. Dams were built聽before distribution channels; wells were drilled everywhere. 鈥淲e focused on getting water out of the ground, but not the best way to use it,鈥� says Kalantari.

One result is that of Iran鈥檚 total 160 billion cubic meters of 鈥渟weet鈥� water in ancient aquifers, already some 123 billion cubic meters has been used,聽most of it since 1979. Of that water, 75 billion聽was sucked away during the 8-year rule of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which ended in 2013.

Generous subsidies give farmers little incentive to conserve. While most Iranians pay 2.5 cents for a kilowatt of electricity, for example, a farmer pays just half a cent.聽Diesel is also heavily subsidized for agricultural users. Still, despite these cheap inputs, Iran grows just 65 percent of the food that it consumes. Nor is it clear how it could ever go it alone, since only 11 percent of its land is arable (the rest is mostly desert or mountains.)

Those facts mean that 鈥渢here is not a lot of wiggle room here,鈥� says Lewis. 鈥淚鈥檓 thinking 20 to 30 years down the line to a situation that鈥檚 hellish, and the fact that we can try to fix that now by doing sensible things.鈥�

Conservation and farming

Iran鈥檚 success hinges of making fundamental changes,聽from learning to conserve and recognizing that Iran鈥檚 water resources are increasingly limited, to implementing cost-effective and workable government policies.

鈥淭he people of this region would really like to see the lake restored, but one reason it is dried up is because of the people themselves,鈥� says Hadi Bahadori, the deputy governor of West Azerbaijan province, who has a PhD in engineering. It鈥檚 鈥渧ery difficult to convince the people 鈥撀爏ome of them don鈥檛 believe us.鈥�

Waiting for salvation is the Golezadeh clan, as they look at their uprooted trees and taste the brine. The nearest fresh water is half a mile away and comes from a single spigot that serves 24 families. For a decade they have shifted to less water-intensive crops like hot peppers, though Mohammad Golezadeh complains of poor returns. 鈥淲e have to make ends meet. We were born here; we don鈥檛 leave,鈥� he says.

Several pilot projects are underway here, working with the UN鈥檚 Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, with $2 million in Japanese funding, to educate and lower water usage. The聽aim is to expand ten-fold to 10,000 hectares in the next year the amount of farmland using drip irrigation,聽part of the 10-year plan to save the lake.聽

Iran鈥檚 late embrace of drip irrigation, pioneered in Israel half a century ago and widely copied in other agricultural countries, carries an ironic sting. In the early part of the 1st millennium BC, Persian rulers built a complex and extensive irrigation system that employed聽vertical shafts and sloping tunnels called聽qanats. Many are still in use today, but have largely been superseded by modern deep wells. 聽

鈥淣ow it seems that the people are believing us more, because we take them to the pilot villages, and they hear from the mouths of other farmers that this has solved their issues,鈥� says Bahadori.

Among the true believers are those on the pilot farm, where the government paid 85 percent of the cost of installing new irrigation piping and pumps. 鈥淭his is California!鈥� says Mr. Aghabalazadeh, the farmer, pointing to the black plastic tubing on his farm. The process costs $5,000 per hectare, but it has聽revitalized his farm.

He says farmers now recognize that modern irrigation is the way forward. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take time, [but] when I see other farmers, I beg them to do it. If everyone does the same thing, 90 percent of Lake Urmia will be saved.鈥�