ISIS advance in Iraq forces Gulf donors to rethink their patronage
When the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) escalated its fight against fellow rebels in Syria late last year, private donors in the聽Persian聽Gulf were rattled. For three years, a network of clerics and Sunni politicians聽had funded anti-regime groups in Syria, including other jihadi factions such as聽Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhut al-Nusra 鈥� groups now at war with ISIS.
First, the donors tried reasoning with ISIS: all rebels should work together against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In October, Kuwaiti donor Mohammed Haif聽聽on Twitter that there had been聽a meeting聽of聽elders trying聽to reason with ISIS members and their families.聽Another Saudi cleric, Yousef bin Abdallah Al Ahmad, tried聽聽between the leader of ISIS and Salafi brigade Ahrar al Sham.聽
But by early 2014, it was clear the talks had failed. Mr. Haif warned ISIS to聽. Other donors alleged sedition: ISIS is 鈥渁ctively seeking to burn all the gains of the Syrian jihad,鈥� another Kuwaiti donor,聽the cleric聽Shafi Al Ajmi,聽聽in a Tweet.
In the last two weeks as ISIS has seized large swathes of Iraq, however, the Gulf donor community is regrouping. ISIS鈥檚 military success聽appears likely to attract new support to its cause,聽even from聽former critics聽who want to back a winner. Yet that very military success 鈥撀燼nd the spoils that it brought to ISIS and its Sunni allies in Iraq 鈥撀爉akes the group less dependent on outside sponsors and ultimately harder to control.
Private donors are estimated to have given hundreds of millions of dollars to Syrian rebels since 2012, , which until last year did not have a law on the books prohibiting the financing of terror. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also supported various anti-regime groups in Syria, though they all deny backing ISIS.
Whatever the nuances of Gulf funding of Syrian fighters, Iraq鈥檚 Shiite-dominated government is ready to believe the worst. , Iraq鈥檚 cabinet accused Saudi Arabia of supporting ISIS and other groups in Iraq and said the Saudi government 鈥渟hould be held responsible for the dangerous crimes committed by these terrorist groups.鈥澛�
Saudi Arabia has denied the accusations. On Wednesday, the聽聽said that Saudi deputy crown prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz al-Saud was meeting with the Iraqi foreign minister to discuss the regional situation.聽
Indeed, it and other Gulf states fear that ISIS is recruiting their nationals who may eventually target the homeland, just as Al Qaeda did in the past.聽Saudi Arabia聽聽an official terrorist organization earlier this year and increased penalties for anyone caught supporting or fighting with them.
鈥淚SIS and some of these other groups positioned themselves as enemies of the Gulf monarchies,鈥� says Emile Hokayem,聽Bahrain-based聽senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 鈥淭hey never miss an opportunity to attack Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states.鈥�
Celebrating Iraqi victory
The official position of governments like Saudi Arabia is one thing. But some of the same donors who once decried ISIS in Syria are celebrating their Iraqi victory.
鈥淲hat is happening in Iraq is a people鈥檚 revolution against oppression and tyranny,鈥� Kuwaiti donor Hajjaj Al Ajmi,聽聽on Twitter on June 16.聽A young Sunni cleric, Mr. Ajmi has spent much of the last two years traveling in and out of Syria to visit the brigades he has funded.
One reason why donors are reconsidering is the success ISIS has had in Iraq. They see the group鈥檚 rapid advance in northern and western Iraq as a broader and legitimate Sunni聽revolt against Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki鈥檚 Shiite Islamist ruling circle. Numerous聽聽have joined ISIS to drive out Iraqi government troops from Mosul, Tikrit, and other cities.
鈥淲hat is happening now on the ground in beloved Iraq is the result of the policies of oppression and exclusion, corruption鈥� by the Iraqi government, argued a June 14聽聽from the International Union of Muslim Scholars, an聽international聽Muslim Brotherhood-linked group led by Qatar-based cleric Yousef al-Qaradawi. Salafi groups in Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia issued a joint聽聽on June 13 accusing the Iraqi government of 鈥渢urning [the country] into a failed state.鈥�
Salafis belong to a Muslim movement that wants to restore the "pure" Islam, as they see it, that prevailed during the time of the prophet Mohamed, in the 7th century. Some Salafi's are peaceful and eschew politics, but many of the modern strain of jihadis, including Al Qaeda, also belong to the movement.
Self-sufficiency
If ISIS鈥檚 advance聽in Iraq聽does attract new聽private聽donations聽from the Gulf, it may not be to ISIS itself, which is already flush from extortion and protection rackets聽in northwest Syria and Iraq鈥檚 Anbar province.聽Add in oil smuggling and bank raids in Iraq, and the group looks increasingly self-sufficient.
鈥淒onor support probably hasn't been significant, at least in recent years,鈥� says a Doha-based financial analyst, who asked not to be named. 鈥淚SIS's goal to govern, including self-financing, is what sets it apart from the others.鈥�
Money may instead be aimed at pushing other聽extremist聽Sunni聽groups聽in Syria and elsewhere聽to adopt an ISIS model: Territorial control and military might, not the small, disparate cells favored by Al Qaeda's central command, which has repudiated ISIS.聽
鈥淭here is no doubt that the most radical people in the region will see ISIS as a successful model,鈥� says Mr. Hokayem. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 going to be very difficult for the Gulf states to keep an eye on and restrain their own citizens.鈥�
Even Syrian opposition groups opposed to ISIS may be forced to shift. Abu Mariya Al Qahtani, a chief Jabhut Al Nusra commander in Eastern Syria,聽on June 11 that he would not congratulate 鈥渕urders and killers鈥� but that he did welcome 鈥淎llah鈥檚 victory鈥� in Iraq.
If ISIS becomes the gold standard for jihadi groups, private donors could see their work sidelined.
鈥淭he groups that are most threatening are the ones who manage to move from an external financing model to and internal financing model,鈥� says Tom Keatinge, a former banker聽at J.P Morgan聽who writes聽and consults聽on terrorism financing.聽鈥淚SIS has taken that to a whole new level. The money they have is similar to the military budget of a small European country.鈥�
