Nuclear talks: What does Iran have the 'right' to do?
| Geneva
At聽the Iranian聽nuclear聽negotiations, the diplo-speak is familiar:聽talks are 鈥渉ard,鈥� 鈥済aps remain,鈥� and 鈥渄ecades of mistrust鈥� must be overcome. But diplomats also describe a 鈥減ositive atmosphere,鈥� and renewed 鈥渄etermination鈥� by Iran and the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) to strike a deal聽after a near miss just two weeks ago.
A full day of talks resumed in earnest today, after kick-off meetings聽on Wednesday. The last Geneva round ended without a deal, when more demands were made of Iran in the final hours. Now Iran says聽that if it is to agree to limits on its enrichment capacity and a stop to key nuclear work, it expects more sanctions relief and other incentives in return.聽
Finding a new and acceptable balance for both sides 鈥� and clarifying the details to make it happen 鈥� is what is obsessing negotiators now in the snowy, sleet-swept Swiss city.
On the table is an initial six-month deal that aims to stop Iran鈥檚 nuclear program from advancing, while聽negotiators hammer out a comprehensive final pact聽that聽prevents Iran from ever creating a nuclear weapon.
Iran would stop its most sensitive uranium enrichment to 20 percent purity, convert its stockpile to fuel use only, halt work on a heavy water reactor at Arak, and agree to robust verification measures in exchange for a modest lifting of sanctions that have crippled its economy.
So what still needs to be done?聽And is there sufficient trust and flexibility to bridge the many gaps that remain?聽
鈥淭he main obstacle is the lack of trust because of what happened at the last round,鈥� Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran鈥檚 deputy foreign minister and a senior negotiator,聽told Iranian media today.聽He noted 鈥渕ajor differences鈥� meant聽that聽there was only a 鈥渃hance鈥� of a deal by聽Friday. 鈥淎s long as trust is not restored, we cannot continue constructive negotiations," he said.
Iran聽insists on its "right" to keep enriching uranium聽for peaceful purposes a demand that was聽a sticking point in聽previous talks over the past two years, when Iran and the P5+1聽traveled聽from Istanbul to Baghdad to Moscow to Almaty, Kazakhstan, in search of a deal.
鈥淭he principle of enrichment is not negotiable but we can discuss volumes, levels and locations,鈥� said Mr. Araghchi,聽noting that this issue was "one of the most difficult, important and sensitive parts" of the talks. His words echoed those聽of Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, who said yesterday that Iran would 鈥渘ot retreat one step鈥� from its nuclear rights, and that Iran鈥檚 鈥渞ed lines must be observed鈥� in any deal.
A semantic compromise聽appeared to come聽from Iran鈥檚 Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who聽in recent days said Iran already had the 鈥渞ight鈥� to enrich, so it did not need to be officially recognized by the P5+1.
A senior US official said talks were getting into the 鈥渘itty-gritty details,鈥� but cautioned on raising hopes too high. 鈥淭his is difficult. This is tough. There is a lot at stake for every country in the room.鈥�
Officials in Washington have also hinted in recent days at a compromise on enrichment, such that Iran's rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty might be recognized 鈥� but not explicitly its "right" to enrich. Both sides would then interpret that fudge as they desired, leaving聽Iran with de-facto enrichment on its own soil.聽
鈥淒o I believe this issue can be navigated in an agreement? Yes I do. And we will see if that can be done or not,鈥� the US official told journalists in Geneva.
Sanctions trade-off聽
Beyond enrichment, negotiators may confront a minefield in finding a mutually acceptable trade-off between what Iran does, and what it gets.聽
鈥淭he [removal of] oil and banking santions will be part of the negotiations and聽measures聽of the other side in the first step,鈥� Araghchi said today, according to a translation by the semi-official Fars News Agency.
The US official had a very different view,聽confirming that Washington only foresees聽modest relief on聽trade in petrochemical and precious metals, and access to some frozen cash reserves abroad,聽which may add up to as little聽$5 billion.聽
鈥淭he sanctions relief that is being contemplated 鈥撀爄f we get an agreement 鈥撀爄s quite small and does not undermine in any way the core architecture of our oil, banking and financial sanctions, which have to remain in place until we get a comprehensive agreement,鈥� said the senior聽US official
As for the rest of the crippling sanctions on Iran, these would be "vigorously" enforced during the six-month deal, the official added.
From the US side, this preliminary step will include enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, the heavy water reactor at Arak, as well as the capacity of enrichment, stockpiles of enriched material, verification and monitoring, and 鈥渉ave general parameters for a comprehensive agreement,鈥� adds the official.
Those parameters are almost certain to include, for the US and P5+1, the long-term objective of ensuring that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon, and for Iran, recognition and normalization of its nuclear program under strict monitoring.
鈥淲e have made a lot of progress, but some issues really need to be clarified,鈥� said another Western diplomat. 鈥淚 sensed a real commitment鈥rom both sides. Will it happen? We will see. But as always the devil is in the details.鈥�
Verification of facts on the ground
What kind of details are聽likely being negotiated now, for the six-month deal?聽For example, one is likely working out how to turn the stated ambition of diplomats 鈥� such as halting Iran鈥檚 sensitive 20 percent uranium enrichment 鈥� into verifiable facts on the ground.
A sense of what the specialists are grappling with can perhaps be seen in the proposal put forward by the P5+1 to Iran in March 2013, which was leaked to 海角大神.
That offer focused on a different issue: making inoperable the centrifuges that enrich uranium at Iran鈥檚 deeply buried Fordow facility, which has a capacity for just 3,000 centrifuges.聽But it dove deeply into technical requirements such changed piping and valve requirements, for example, and "draining UF6 gas from in-process cold traps".
In Geneva, 鈥淭here are very technical issues at stake; it is important to have a clear understanding on technical elements in order to ensure a robust and viable agreement,鈥� says the Western diplomat. 鈥淭his needs to be done in a proper way 鈥撀爓e will take the time we need.鈥�
And there are domestic politics to consider, if only so that both sides can present a new deal as a "win," if not "win-win."
鈥淚f we agree on something, definitely that means there are enough things for us to take back home,鈥� Majid Takht-Ravanchi, a member of Iran鈥檚 negotiating team, recently told the Monitor.
鈥淚f there is going to be an agreement 鈥撀燼nd it鈥檚 a big 鈥榠f鈥� 鈥� definitely enrichment is something we need to take back,鈥� said Mr. Ravanchi. 鈥淲e are not very much attached to a specific wording鈥ut what is important is the concept of enrichment [that] has to be somehow reflected in the document.鈥�
On this point 鈥� selling a deal to critics at home 鈥� the US and Iran are on the same page.聽Even this initial deal 鈥減oses risks for everyone at the table,鈥� says the senior US official. 鈥淲e all have domestic constituencies. We all have skeptics.鈥�
