Could Obama, Iran's Rouhani meet 'accidentally' at the UN next week?
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| Washington
Editor's note: This story was updated to include White House comment released after publication.
Signs are plentiful and growing that Iran and the United States are preparing to take advantage of the recent election of a centrist president in Tehran to break a logjam in stalled nuclear talks and ease a generation of mutual hostility.
From public statements to official Twitter feeds and Facebook pages,听Iran鈥檚 government has听launched a campaign听to portray a tone of reason and compromise on issues ranging from Holocaust denial to resolving the nuclear standoff.
Iran鈥檚 new President Hassan Rouhani听affirmed听last Friday Iran's bedrock position that it must keep its nuclear program to produce electricity, but called for new steps听in stalled negotiations:听鈥淲e want the swiftest solution to听[the nuclear impasse]听within international听norms.鈥澨齃ikewise, Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi听on Monday听told the UN's nuclear watchdog agency in Vienna that Iran was determined to end the nuclear dispute, saying: "This time we are coming with a more full-fledged 鈥 desire for this."听
The contrast with years of combative rhetoric that defined Iran鈥檚 former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could not be sharper.
There has already been an unprecedented exchange of letters between US President Obama and Rouhani. Mr. Obama told ABC News he had 鈥渞eached out鈥 to his Iranian counterpart, saying that Iran might play a role in solving the Syria crisis and prompting speculation that Obama and Rouhani might 鈥渁ccidentally鈥 bump into each other during the UN General Assembly in New York next week. If it happens, it will be the first direct interaction between the two country's presidents听since Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution听prompted听a bitter break in relations.听
A White House official said today that Obama has no plans to meet with the Iranian leader, but did not entirely听rule out the possibility.听
The previous Iranian negotiating team 鈥渨asn鈥檛 genuinely interested in making a nuclear deal,鈥 says听Robert Einhorn, who听until last May was the US Department of State鈥檚 special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, and a member of the US nuclear negotiating team.听They were 鈥渋deologically indisposed鈥 to finding an accommodation with the West, hindered by 鈥渢otal self-delusion鈥 about the impact of sanctions and US and Western resolve, and they 鈥渞esisted all compromise.鈥
鈥淭his new leadership is very, very different,鈥 says听Mr. Einhorn, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, speaking in recent days at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. He described Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif听鈥 who will handle the Iranian side of the talks 鈥撎齛s one of the best diplomats he had 鈥渆ver seen."
鈥淭hey are realistic, they鈥檙e pragmatic, they have no illusions about the economic predicament they are in," Einhorn says.
A framework forms听
Analysts say that contours of a nuclear deal to permanently cap Iran's nuclear program are increasingly clear, but that perennial stumbling blocks remain. The goal of world powers is to structure Iran's program so that it can produce only energy, not nuclear weapons. Iran insists its program is solely for peaceful purposes.
Iran has signaled a willingness to curb its most sensitive nuclear work 鈥 uranium enrichment to 20 percent purity, which is a few technical steps from bomb-grade 鈥 and accept far more intrusive inspections and monitoring. In return, Iran expects the US and other world powers it is negotiating with (known as the P5+1, with Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) to substantially ease sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy, and to recognize Iran's "right" to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
鈥淚鈥檓 optimistic about a resolution on the nuclear program because what we want is not fundamentally different from what the international community wants鈥 for Iran鈥檚 nuclear program to not be diverted towards weaponization,鈥 says Nasser Hadian-Jazy, an international relations expert at Tehran University who is familiar with the thinking of Iran's new government, in an interview.听
He says Iran is ready to embrace a 鈥渞obust鈥 verification system, resolve outstanding issues of past weapons-related work, and perhaps eventually cut back the number of centrifuges currently installed to enrich uranium from the听current 18,000-plus.
While Iran's sprawling enrichment complex at Natanz will likely be on the table, Hadian-Jazy says that the smaller, deeply buried enrichment facility at Fordow 鈥 which is virtually impregnable to US or Israeli airstrikes, and has been a key focus of the P5+1 at nuclear talks 鈥 will not be up for discussion. And if Iran is willing to scale back the number of operating centrifuges, it will not likely accept limits on improving the technical capacity of those those centrifuges that remain.
"There are red lines," says Hadian-Jazy.听鈥淭his is the endgame I am talking about. Don鈥檛 expect [the Iran team] to go there and say that, 鈥榊es, we are ready to cut the number of centrifuges.鈥 But at the end I believe that is possible,鈥 he says.
What's 'acceptable'?
What is not yet clear is how Iran's red lines can gel with those of the US and P5+1 at the negotiating table, and if they will be enough. US officials have long said that "all options," including military force, were "on the table" in dealing with Iran, and in听the ABC interview, Obama cautioned Iran not to read too much into the US-Russia deal over Syria鈥檚 chemical weapons, which averted US military strikes while agreeing to dispose of all of Syria鈥檚 chemical arms.
"They shouldn't draw a lesson that we haven't struck听[Syria], to think we won't strike Iran," Obama said. "On the other hand, what they should draw from this lesson is that there is the potential of resolving these issues diplomatically."
Dispute over what both Iran and the US consider an 鈥渁cceptable鈥 form of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program have overshadowed multiple rounds of talks since early last year in Istanbul, Baghdad, Moscow,听and Kazakhstan.
But the US goal to limit Iran鈥檚 breakout capability听to race secretly for a bomb听听鈥 听entailing limitations on the number and types of centrifuges, and the size and quality of Iran鈥檚 stockpiles of enriched uranium 鈥撎齣s such that, 鈥渢o be acceptable, any enrichment capability in Iran would require much greater restriction than 鈥撎齭o far, at least 鈥撎齟ven Iran鈥檚 new leadership is prepared to concede,鈥 says听former US official听Einhorn.
New spirit of compromise
Can that form the basis of progress? Obama may have more executive leeway to sweeten the deal听with sanctions relief听than commonly thought,听says Kenneth Katzman, a Persian Gulf specialist for the Congressional Research Service. He may be able听to quickly ease some US measures听in the course of a negotiating process, despite tough and time-consuming standards required by Congress to remove some sanctions entirely.
鈥淭he Iranian people need to understand sanctions would not be erased in one day, true,鈥 said Mr. Katzman, speaking at the Atlantic Council. 鈥淏ut if you look at the way the sanctions work, the president, the executive branch, still has a lot of discretion about how to apply the sanctions.鈥
Banking on that 鈥 and buoyed by the high expectations of a new negotiating team and political reality in Iran since the shock June election of Rouhani 鈥 the Iranians have sought to show themselves as ready to deal.
鈥淲e should not expect Rouhani to perform miracles, but there is a good chance he sets Iran back on a sensible course,鈥 said Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, also speaking at the Atlantic Council.
鈥淏oth at home and abroad, [Rouhani] knows that politics and diplomacy involve compromise, a word that did not exist in the last eight years in the political jargon of Iran鈥檚 foreign policy,鈥 says Ms. Esfandiari. 鈥淗e knows what concessions he can secure, and what concessions he has to make.鈥