海角大神

As Iranians erupted in celebration over the victory of Hassan Rohani, they knew what they wanted from their president-elect: more social freedoms, a better economy, and less 鈥渞esistance鈥� to the rest of the world.

The centrist cleric has promised them as much. But Iranian politics are an unruly tangle in which moderate agendas have often been wrecked by hard-line factions. Will Mr. Rohani be able to bring change without upending the Islamic Republic? Has this regime insider 鈥� who declared in 1999 that student protesters 鈥渨ould be punished as corrupt on earth who waged war on God鈥� 鈥� learned lessons from those chaotic days and those of the 2009 Green Movement protests? And will he have the mettle to achieve the promised transformation?

鈥淚t will be challenging for Rohani to make changes. People need to be more patient; they cannot expect to see immediate results,鈥� says Azadeh, an engineer and mother in central Tehran who asked that only her first name be used. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just up to the president. But because he is a strong personality and has a lot of support from influential politicians, he can succeed.鈥�

Rohani was able to defeat the five conservative candidates in a surprise first-round win because of endorsements from two reformist former presidents: Mohammad Khatami, who won landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 on promises of change, and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Their support 鈥� and their apparent faith in an electoral process that many Iranians had given up on after the fraud-tainted 2009 vote 鈥� swept Rohani to what he called a 鈥渧ictory of wisdom and moderation鈥� over extremism, although he remains close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

鈥淧eople want more freedom and civil rights and economic prosperity,鈥� says a bearded musician in Tehran who plays classical Persian music. 鈥淚 think that even with the factions within the establishment, Rohani will be able to fulfill his promises because the [ruling system鈥檚] goal right now is to calm society.鈥�

Mixed record

Even though Rohani聽took an uncompromising line against pro-democracy protesters in 1999, his own children are believed to have links to the opposition Green Movement activities, as do the offspring of many senior officials.

Rohani never spoke out about the protest and crackdown in 2009, but he says he will work to release Green Movement leaders and former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi from house arrest.聽

鈥淚n the suppression of the Green Movement, Rohani did not stand up for protesters,鈥� notes Azadeh. 鈥淢aybe it was his tactic to save face to become a presidential candidate. But let鈥檚 see what he does in the future.鈥�

Those events were a learning experience for Rohani and to a degree Mr. Khamenei, reflected in his call just days before the election for those 鈥渨ho don鈥檛 want to back Islamic system鈥� to vote anyway, for the nation.聽

Rohani has promised a 鈥渃ivil rights charter鈥� and has spoken frequently about broader political and social rights and less government interference in people鈥檚 lives. The conservative establishment has lined up to praise his victory, and police have clearly been ordered not to prevent street celebrations.

鈥淭hese are signs of wisdom, that they have learned from the previous mistakes,鈥� says an Iranian analyst in Tehran. 鈥淭here is this strange capability of the Islamic regime for survival. Under tremendous pressures they get very close to the precipice, and something happens and they turn back ... to avoid very, very big disasters.鈥�

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Hassan Rohani is faking it,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淭he question is, will he make it? Will he be allowed 鈥� or will he be able 鈥� to have room enough to do that?鈥�

Balancing act

The answer may depend on how Rohani balances competing pressures. He knows many Revolutionary Guard commanders from his role managing the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, but he is also close to figures like Mr. Rafsanjani, who were pilloried by hard-liners for fomenting the 2009 鈥渟edition鈥� that shook the regime to the core.

鈥淭here has always been some apprehension about [Rohani] in the security and intelligence establishment, about his hard-line credentials being insufficient on national security,鈥� says an Iranian political scientist in Washington. 鈥淪o he鈥檚 going to have some problems with those guys, no matter what.鈥�

His tough approach to the 1999 student uprising came amid fear of 鈥渃haos and a real collapse of the system,鈥� says the academic. 鈥淭hat position does not necessarily repudiate the overall moderate orientation [today]. The time was different, and of course [Rohani] has grown and changed.鈥�

As for chances of a resurgence of the vigilante groups that were active during the Khatami era, and deployed in the 2009 crackdown?

鈥淭here is a growing sense among even hardcore conservatives that those tactics are no longer paying off or could be deployed,鈥� says the political scientist. 鈥淚鈥檓 not ruling out the possibility of those vigilantes regrouping and starting again; that depends very much on how Rohani reacts and how Rohani plays the game.鈥�

The Monitor correspondent and sources have been left unnamed for security reasons.