海角大神

For a man facing what some describe as the most potent threat of his political career, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan certainly seems confident.

After almost a week of nationwide protests calling for his resignation, he went ahead with a scheduled four-day trip to North Africa.听

鈥淏y the time I return, this issue will most likely have reached an end,鈥� Mr. Erdogan told reporters in Morocco June 3.听

What started as a small sit-in against the redevelopment of a park next to Istanbul鈥檚 Taksim Square has escalated into a mass outpouring of antigovernment anger. Erdogan, however, has so far refused to give an inch.听

He dismissed demonstrators as 鈥渧agabonds鈥� and 鈥渆xtremists,鈥� blaming the unrest on the 鈥渟courge鈥� of Twitter. He vowed to press ahead with plans to revamp Taksim Square, including replacing four-acre Gezi Park with a replica of an old Ottoman barracks building to house shops and apartments. And he further enraged the mainly secular demonstrators by reiterating his plan to construct a mosque in Taksim 鈥� which, along with the Ataturk Cultural Center facing it, is considered a symbol of the secular, Western-oriented reforms instituted by Turkey鈥檚 modern founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.听

Building a mosque in Taksim Square has long been a goal of Turkey鈥檚 Islamists, 鈥渋n part because it鈥檚 the epicenter of [Istanbul鈥檚] secular nightlife, but also because there鈥檚 a gigantic cathedral that鈥檚 visible from there. There鈥檚 a church, but no mosque,鈥� says Jenny White, an anthropologist at Boston University who has studied Islamic movements in Turkey.听

鈥淒oes the whole Taksim Refurbishment Project boil down to a kind of score-settling contest in Turkey鈥檚 culture wars?鈥� asked Can Erimtan, a Middle East analyst and historian in a recent article in Istanbul Gazette.听

That鈥檚 one take. Others attribute Erdogan鈥檚 intransigence to an unassailable belief in his own judgment, fostered by unrivaled power.

鈥淚f they call a person who is a servant of the nation a dictator, I can find nothing to tell them,鈥� Erdogan said Sunday. 鈥淚 have no concern but to serve my 76 million citizens.鈥�

鈥淗e has the typical syndrome of the lonely autocrat,鈥� says Cengiz Aktar, a political science professor at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul. 鈥淗e decides by himself, he doesn鈥檛 consult, and he cannot evaluate the consequences of his actions.鈥�

Ironically, this follows Kemalism, the authoritarian, nationalist, rigidly secular ideology inspired by Ataturk that Erdogan has spent his career fighting, Mr. Aktar says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 behaving as a genuine and authentic Kemalist. It鈥檚 top down: I decide and you support, and what I decide is good for you.鈥�

Social engineering?

In recent months, Erdogan has made pronouncements that, to many Turks, smack of social engineering. Last year, while demanding school reforms, he said he wanted to raise 鈥減ious generations.鈥� He also declared the yogurt drink ayran the national beverage 鈥� a title traditionally given to the alcoholic drink raki.

Erdogan has humble origins. He grew up in a conservative family in a working class Istanbul suburb and played semiprofessional soccer as a young man. After turning to politics, he climbed steadily through the ranks of Turkey鈥檚 Islamist political movement.

鈥淗e was very charismatic. He was also single-minded,鈥� recalls Ms. White, who interviewed and shadowed Erdogan after he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994. 鈥淗e鈥檚 like a bulldozer; he takes over every situation and is absolutely strategic and pragmatic. I can鈥檛 imagine that that鈥檚 changed.鈥�

As mayor, he gained a reputation as a competent administrator who improved the city. Then, and in his first years as prime minister, he won over liberals by swearing loyalty to a secular system of government. Since its founding in 2001, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) has insisted on the label 鈥渟ocial conservative鈥� rather than 鈥淚slamist.鈥�

Ayse Onal, a journalist and onetime friend of Erdogan, was one of those won over. She was attracted by Erdogan鈥檚 opposition to the military 鈥� self-appointed guardians of Ataturk鈥檚 legacy 鈥� and his departure from the Kemalists鈥� hostility to Turkey鈥檚 minorities. Western governments were also won over.

The military was long the antagonist of political Islam, indirectly forcing the country鈥檚 first Islamist government from power in 1997. But Erdogan has broken its grip, facilitating trials targeting top military officials for allegedly plotting coups. Despite limited progress, the government is in peace negotiations with the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party.听

Today, Erdogan might be right to be confident. He has presided over a decade of sensational economic progress. Per capita income and gross domestic product have soared, and earlier this year, the country finished repaying the International Monetary Fund, ending a 52-year relationship. Despite a slowdown, Turkey recently achieved investment-grade status from two ratings agencies. National debt has dropped from 78 percent of GDP to about 40 percent today.

The growth has spurred a boom in infrastructure projects and international prestige 鈥� and it has been reflected at the ballot box. AKP has won each election with ever-larger majorities, netting nearly 50 percent in 2011.

鈥淎lmost half of society voted for him, and that power has tainted him,鈥� says Ms. Onal, who is no longer in contact with Erdogan. 鈥淗e lost his mind and his sense of justice. He became one man operating on his own.鈥澛�

Erdogan is unlikely to be able to continue like that now. 鈥淧eople will take to the streets now every time he makes a unilateral action,鈥� Aktar says. 鈥淭hey no longer fear him.鈥�

This week, on the Ataturk Cultural Center 鈥� the building Erdogan wants to destroy 鈥� protesters draped a banner that stated simply, 鈥淪hut up Tayyip.鈥澛�