海角大神

With Wednesday鈥檚 assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist 鈥� widely seen as the latest strike in a broader covert war 鈥� and impending sanctions targeting Iran鈥檚 oil industry, tensions between the Islamic Republic and the West have escalated to their highest pitch in years.

The assassins remain unknown, but Iran is vowing to strike back against the US and Israel for the killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan.

Iran鈥檚 hard-line Kayhan newspaper stated that retaliation is 鈥渓egal under international law,鈥� and that 鈥渁ssassination of Israeli officials and military members are achievable. One Iranian intelligence official was quoted by the hard-line Rajanews warning that 鈥淚ran鈥檚 reactions will extend beyond the borders [of Iran] and beyond the region.鈥�

The fevered rhetoric is further proof, analysts say, that what began as a US-led carrot-and-stick policy designed to goad Iran into dropping any aspirations of developing nuclear weapons has turned into a purely punitive approach that leaves Iranian leaders little reason to cooperate.

鈥淭hey have very few tools in their tool kit right now, and in a sense we have pushed them into a corner with sanctions,鈥� says Anoushiravan Ehteshami, an Iran specialist at Durham University in England.

鈥淪o what else do [Iranian leaders] have to lose? If they retaliate, they can change the game a bit, and that鈥檚 what they are doing,鈥� says Mr. Ehteshami. 鈥淥f course, when you start changing the game a bit, you don鈥檛 quite control how much you change. You can unleash all kinds of forces.鈥�

Indeed, the stage appears set for a highly volatile year, as both the United States and Iran prepare for important elections, Tehran faces key decisions on its nuclear program, and an Iranian-American convicted of spying sits on death row in Iran.

Vow to answer 'threats with threats'

When Iran鈥檚 supreme religious leader looked out on his nation鈥檚 strategic landscape in mid-November, he saw many gathering storm clouds.

Enemies were readying tougher sanctions 鈥� perhaps to embargo oil, Iran鈥檚 economic lifeblood. They were killing Iranian nuclear scientists. They had sent the computer virus Stuxnet to disrupt Iran鈥檚 uranium enrichment. Their agents were reportedly inside Iran, replacing street signs and bricks in buildings with new ones equipped with radiation detectors.

And the United Nations nuclear watchdog had just published details of alleged 鈥渟ystematic鈥� nuclear weapons-related work by Iran through late 2003, and declared of 鈥減articular concern鈥� more episodic work as recently as 2009 鈥� prompting fresh global opprobrium.

So Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a warning that Iran would 鈥渁nswer threats with threats.鈥�

鈥淚ran is not a nation to sit still and just observe threats from fragile materialistic powers which are being eaten by worms from inside,鈥� Khamenei told military college students in Tehran on Nov. 10. 鈥淚ran will respond with full force to any aggression or even threats in a way that will demolish the aggressors from within.鈥�

Since then, Khamenei has stayed true to his promise. When the US and Israel staged or announced military exercises in the neighborhood, so did Iran, unveiling new rocket and missile capabilities.

When the Obama administration said it would target Iran鈥檚 central bank and oil flows with fresh sanctions, some Iranian officials warned they would respond by closing the Straight of Hormuz 鈥� the most important single chokepoint for global oil supplies. (Senior Iranian military officers later backtracked.)

Dangerous assumptions

And as the US, Israel, and the European Union (EU) stepped up the pressure and sanctions began to bite, Iran repeated that its goal was producing peaceful energy 鈥� not bombs 鈥� and then enhanced its efforts earlier this month, when it not only began enriching uranium at a new, deeply buried facility, but produced its first prototype fuel rod.

鈥淸Khamenei] has made very clear that he鈥檚 not going to back down,鈥� says Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii. In recent days Iran鈥檚 sacred 鈥済uide鈥� stated that Iran was engaged in a crucial battle, comparing it to those of centuries ago when Muslims fought nonbelievers.

She says hard-line Iranian leaders are operating on the basis of dangerous assumptions.

鈥淭hreatening to close Hormuz may sound insane, but attacking Iran by the United States or Israelis is even more insane, so they operate on the presumption that this will not happen,鈥� says Ms. Farhi, who has closely followed Iranian politics for decades. Other assumptions: that Iran can withstand any attack; that the US is weak; and that the economically weak EU is also politically weak.

The Obama administration has also held to its own premise that Iranians don鈥檛 give in to pressure unless it is a lot of pressure. The US has 鈥渙perated under that assumption without realizing that we have reached a point where the policy of sticks and carrots has become only a policy of sticks,鈥� says Farhi. 鈥淭here is absolutely no incentive for Khamenei to do anything else. At this point, what do they get out of compromise?鈥�

That is the question Iran鈥檚 leaders will be asking themselves ahead of fresh global nuclear talks 鈥� the first in a year 鈥� expected soon in Turkey.

鈥淭here is a danger: You can actually talk war into happening,鈥� says Ehteshami, coauthor of 鈥淚ran and the Rise of its Neoconservatives.鈥�

This year is full of uncertainties that are shaping the agenda, he says. Iran鈥檚 March parliamentary election 鈥� the first since the 2009 presidential election that sparked mass protests, has been described by some as the 鈥渕ost important鈥� since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

And in the US presidential election, where being tough on Iran is a no-lose policy, Republican candidates are openly talking of war.

鈥淚t is how these have come together in such an unfortunate fashion,鈥� says Ehteshami, 鈥渢hat makes the situation very volatile and dangerous.鈥�