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The resignation of Kofi聽Annan, the point man for international efforts to bring peace to Syria, emphatically confirmed what events on the ground had already been making clear: The country鈥檚 fate is far more likely to be decided by force than by negotiations.

The former U.N. secretary-general鈥檚 announcement Thursday that he was ending his attempt to negotiate an end to the conflict came amid a sharp increase in fighting that began after a bomb killed four top security aides to President Bashar Assad last month.

While government forces subsequently pushed insurgent bands out of the capital, Damascus, they are now locked in what could be a decisive battle for the northern city of Aleppo, Syria鈥檚 commercial hub and most populous urban center.

鈥淢ost people have concluded that this is not going to be settled by talk at the U.N., but by developments on the ground,鈥� said Robert Malley, a former Clinton administration official now with the International Crisis Group think tank.

In comments to reporters Thursday,聽Annan聽voiced an opinion he had never before uttered publicly 鈥� that, as part of the solution he had been seeking for Syria, Assad would have to go.

鈥淭he transition meant President Assad would have to leave sooner or later,鈥澛燗nnan聽said in Geneva.

He cited the Syrian government鈥檚 鈥渋ntransigence鈥� and the opposition鈥檚 鈥渆scalating military campaign鈥� as major impediments to his peace efforts, along with a lack of unity in the international community on how to deal with the crisis.

The conflict in Syria, analysts say, has already moved into a new phase that in some ways resembles 1980s Afghanistan, a kind of proxy war for foreign interests in which Western-backed guerrillas are fighting to topple an ally of Moscow.

While the Kremlin does not have troops in Syria, as it did in Afghanistan, Assad received diplomatic cover from Russia, a long-time ally. And Assad also maintains the backing of Iran, a neighbor and regional power.

The Obama administration this week reportedly signed off on clandestine action by the CIA on behalf of the Syrian rebels seeking to overthrow Assad. The White House has also agreed to bolster 鈥渘on lethal鈥� aid to the opposition and make it easier for outside groups to aid the rebels.

The United States and its allies are providing increasing amounts of aid to a highly decentralized rebel force that has a substantial Islamist element 鈥� including some admitted sympathizers with al-Qaida.

Washington has said it is not supplying arms to the rebels. That task appears to have been outsourced to allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Those Gulf monarchies, dominated by Sunni Muslims, are intent on helping Syria鈥檚 Sunni majority overthrow Assad鈥檚 government, which is dominated by the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

The departure of聽Annan, who served since late February as the U.N. and Arab League peace envoy to Syria, would seem to signal the unraveling of his six-point peace plan. Inside Syria, both sides in the conflict have long ignored聽Annan鈥檚聽blueprint, which, among other things, called for the withdrawal of troops and armor from populated areas.

Instead, the small contingent of U.N. observers still on the ground in Syria said this week that the government had begun using jet fighters 鈥� a significant escalation of previous tactics. Meanwhile, insurgents were deploying tanks and other heavy weaponry seized from the military.

On the ground, the brutality of the conflict is increasingly evident, with almost daily reports of 鈥渕assacres鈥� by both sides. A widely circulated video uploaded onto YouTube this week documented the execution of alleged pro-government militiamen by rebels.

Annan, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, voiced deep frustrations with his effort to overcome profound divisions among global powers on how to stop a conflict that has already cost more than 10,000 lives.

鈥淚 can鈥檛 want peace more than the protagonists, more than the Security Council or the international community for that matter,鈥澛燗nnan聽said. 鈥淪yria can still be saved from the worst calamity 鈥� if the international community can show the courage and leadership necessary.鈥�

The spillover effect has already been enormous. Fighting has sent more than 200,000 refugees streaming into neighboring nations, including Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq. Cross-border battles have erupted along the Lebanese frontier, while Turkey moved up troops and anti-aircraft batteries to its border after Syria shot down a Turkish warplane.

It remains unclear what exactly the U.N. can do. Major powers such as the United States and its allies are hesitant to intervene militarily in Syria, with its complex ethno-religious makeup and its still-formidable military arsenal.

Russia, with veto powers in the Security Council, was determined to avoid any kind of Libya-style Western intervention. On three occasions, Russia and China blocked Security Council resolutions that could have led to sanctions against the government of Assad, whose family has ruled Syria for more than 40 years.

Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., praised聽Annan聽for taking on a 鈥榯hankless and difficult task.鈥� She blamed the Syrian government, and without naming them, the Russians and the Chinese, for its failure.

Annan鈥檚聽mission 鈥渃ould never have succeeded so long as the Assad regime continuously broke its pledges to implement the Six Point Plan and persisted in using horrific violence against its own people,鈥� she said, adding that Security Council members who blocked resolutions that would have penalized Assad 鈥渆ffectively made Mr. Annan鈥檚聽mission impossible.鈥�

Russian officials appeared to be surprised by聽Annan鈥檚聽resignation, and one official put the blame on the West. 鈥淎nnan聽must have quit because he realized he will not get the backing he needed from the West,鈥� said Leonid Kalashnikov, deputy chief of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament.

Annan聽assigned blame to all Security Council members, complaining that at a time 鈥渨hen the Syrian people desperately need action, there continues to be finger pointing and name calling in the Security Council.鈥�

(Staff writers Paul Richter in Washington and Sergei L. Loiko in Moscow contributed to this report.)

漏2012 Los Angeles Times

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