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Will UK's Cameron reap rewards at Thursday's Euro summit?

The European Union seems likely to capitulate to Britain's reform proposals at the Euro Summit on Thursday. Why is giving in better than the alternative for the EU?

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Yves Herman/REUTERS
A Union Jack flag is raised next to European Union flags ahead of a visit from Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on Tuesday.

Representatives of nearly 30 European nations will gather together on Thursday to discuss immigration and Britain鈥檚 proposed exit (or 鈥淏rexit鈥) from the European Union (EU). Those who oppose a 鈥淏rexit鈥 hope that Thursday鈥檚 conference can find some common ground.

Britain has been discussing the potential for a 鈥淏rexit鈥 for some time. After David Cameron鈥檚 re-election to the post of Prime Minister in 2015, he embarked on a quest to renegotiate the terms of Britain鈥檚 membership in the EU.

to Donald Tusk,聽the President of the European Council, Mr. Cameron enumerated principles that Britain hoped the EU could embrace, including preserving sovereignty and competitiveness and immigration reforms.

Although France has traditionally been the country that is most reluctant to make special deals with Britain, Tufts University professor Dr. Enrico Spolaore says that in this case, 鈥渢he largest opposition comes from Eastern European countries.鈥

This is because many of the immigrants that would be impacted by Britain鈥檚 new welfare policy towards immigrants could be from Eastern European countries. Under Cameron鈥檚 proposed reforms, immigrants would not qualify for the same level of welfare as British citizens. The issue of immigration in Europe as a whole is .

Thursday鈥檚 talks could be critical to the future of the EU.

鈥淪ome people in the EU appear to be unconcerned if UK does vote to leave,鈥 says Kostas Lavdas, a professor in the聽Fletcher School for international relations at Tufts, 鈥渁s they don't see the potential implication of the start of the breakup of EU as a whole. But most do.鈥

While some have taken a pessimistic view of the talks, predicting a collapse of the European Union if Britain votes to leave the EU in a referendum this summer, others cite the EU鈥檚 determination to keep Britain as a member as a reason for optimism.

"I am not entering into the details of a plan B, because , we have a plan A,鈥 said European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, 鈥淏ritain will stay in the European Union as a constructive and active member of the Union."

Others, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are also invested in preserving the Union. It seems likely, says Spolaore, that there will be many concessions after the Euro Summit.

Indeed, it seems likely that many of the reforms Cameron is advocating . The BBC reported on Tuesday that many influential members of the European Parliament support the reforms, and consequently Britain鈥檚 continued presence in the EU.

鈥淎ll three [members of leading factions] made clear their support for the proposals on the table,鈥 said , 鈥渁nd said they were ready to take any necessary EU legislation through the European Parliament swiftly.鈥

Some say that if the EU makes exceptions for Britain, it will set a precedent for all member countries. Once the rules are opened for Britain, any country may attempt to gain exemption from one or more of the EU鈥檚 rules for membership.

Reuters reports that at least one parliamentary official expressed concern for the future of European government after a pro-reform vote, saying the legislature is unpredictable: 鈥淚t can be monkeys with guns."

Due to the current level of instability in Europe, however, some economists and political scientists say that despite the precedent it could set, it is best for all that Britain remains in the EU.

鈥淎n agreement may to some extent reaffirm the continuing potential for a multiple-speed Europe, an anathema for federalists,鈥 says Lavdas, 鈥淏ut a Brexit would be the worst-possible scenario for all concerned.鈥

In general, the outcome of the talks could see a trend towards an increasingly flexible EU. 鈥淭he idea of having a common federal policy amongst 28 member states is Utopian,鈥 says Spolaore, 鈥淚鈥檇 like to see a more practical solution.鈥

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