As Russia and Ukraine press drone war, NATO finds itself caught in crossfire
| Brussels
As Ukraine stepped up its attacks on Russia in recent weeks, the war has spilled over into NATO territory with increasing frequency, prompting allies to grapple with what, exactly, they owe one other in a time of war.
Jammed and spoofed by both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, drones laden with explosives have strayed off target, occasionally crashing and causing fires in countries on the alliance鈥檚 eastern flank. In some cases, NATO fighter jets have scrambled to shoot them down. On Friday, a Ukrainian naval drone in Romania鈥檚 Black Sea port of Constanta. Officials in Kyiv accused Russian forces of jamming the vessel.
Staunch Ukraine supporters, Europeans along the Russian border have long been vocal about Ukraine鈥檚 right to defend itself, and about the blame Moscow bears for starting the war and the majority of incursions in the course of it. NATO members last year recorded 18 Russian airspace violations, for example, three times as many as in 2024, according to a February .
Why We Wrote This
Supporting a neighboring country that is defending against an invasion is tricky. You want to help it deflect incoming attacks. But those deflections could end up hitting you. It鈥檚 just the sort of problem that NATO members are wrestling with regarding Ukraine.
But Ukraine鈥檚 increasingly aggressive battle strategy is forcing Kyiv鈥檚 front-line neighbors to grapple with the spillover effect it is having on them 鈥� even as they are aware that posing the question plays into Russian narratives designed to divide the alliance.
鈥淲hen Ukraine is as forward-leaning as it is right now, it can put NATO countries in a troubling position,鈥� including creating 鈥渟ignificant political pressure and tremendous anxiety,鈥� says Kristine Berzina, senior fellow in defense at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington.
Eastern European officials want to keep their citizens 鈥� not to mention voters 鈥� safe from drones and threats of Russian retaliation. They also want embattled Ukraine to win the war, which would be to their benefit as well.
Ukraine and its NATO neighbors, Ms. Berzina says, are 鈥渟traddling a tough line.鈥�
Widening margins of error
A Russian drone last week slammed into an apartment building in Romania, wounding a woman and child. Romanian officials, quick to reassure citizens that they were not under Russian attack, also noted that it was the first time civilians there had been hurt during the four-year war.
Of the roughly 29 drone incursions in Romania since February 2022, when the war began, more than half of these, some 16, occurred in the first five months of 2026.
Russia is the war鈥檚 aggressor, but Ukraine has increasingly been going on the offensive against its occupier and, as it does, has been more willing to push things, some analysts say.
Throughout May, Ukrainian drone incursions caused a political crisis in Latvia 鈥� amid charges that top officials weren鈥檛 doing enough to protect their people 鈥� and also forced some 2 million Finns in Greater Helsinki to take shelter. Five days later, Lithuanian lawmakers headed underground, too, as a drone approached Vilnius.
A senior Swedish military official last month told Reuters that Ukraine seemed to be deliberately flying its drones close to the Baltic border with Russia in order to use these countries as a sort of shield. Russia, the official posited, was reluctant to fire into NATO territory and start a confrontation 鈥� giving Ukrainian drones a better chance of hitting targets inside its enemy鈥檚 borders.
When a Ukrainian drone, which likely veered off target after it was jammed by Russia, crashed a few dozen yards from an apartment building last month, Estonia鈥檚 defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, pressed Kyiv publicly, if measuredly, to be more careful.
鈥淲e鈥檝e said to the Ukrainians all the time that if you鈥檙e attacking Russian positions or Russian targets, then these trajectories have to be as far from NATO territory as possible,鈥� Mr. Pevkur told The Associated Press.
A Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson duly apologized to its 鈥淏altic friends鈥� for 鈥渟uch unintended incidents.鈥�
It was a bit of a 鈥渟orry, not sorry鈥� moment, though, as Ukraine鈥檚 strikes deep in its occupier鈥檚 own territory 鈥� hitting critical oil infrastructure and sometimes raising costs for average Russians 鈥� are a big success as far as Kyiv is concerned, notes Benjamin Friedman, policy director at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington.
These attacks, like the one on St. Petersburg last week during an economic summit billed as Moscow鈥檚 answer to Davos, are in part designed to raise awareness of the war鈥檚 costs among the Russian public, and ideally generate opposition to it, according to a May analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.
For this, Kyiv lately seems 鈥渨illing to offend allies more than in the past,鈥� Ms. Berzina says. 鈥淏ut they are also being more successful.鈥�
Less risky than it seems?
This success comes at a cost, however. On NATO鈥檚 eastern border, daily life in the wake of drone incursions has at times ground to a halt as schools close and citizens take shelter. Along with the economic and domestic policy implications, this exposes gaps in military preparedness, too.
Latvia鈥檚 defense minister resigned last month, as did the prime minister days later, after Ukrainian drones, likely redirected by Russia, penetrated the country鈥檚 airspace without timely public alerts, raising questions about the adequacy of air defenses.
Russia takes advantage of these occasions to size up gaps in NATO鈥檚 military response and accuse Baltic countries of letting Ukraine use their airspace, with the veiled threats these charges imply.
Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev seemed to try to stoke such fears last month. 鈥淵ou should realize your authorities have unilaterally entered into a war with Russia,鈥� he warned in a social media post. 鈥淒on鈥檛 be surprised by anything. The peaceful sleep is over.鈥�
But given Russia鈥檚 reluctance to fire into NATO territory, and the security guarantees that come with NATO membership, Eastern front countries are more protected from Russia than they often acknowledge, Mr. Friedman says.
Still, at a certain point, their interests with Kyiv diverge. As a country whose independence is at stake, Ukraine views 鈥渁 lot of things [as] fair game that might be uncomfortable for the West,鈥� he adds. From Ukraine鈥檚 perspective, escalation is a plus if it leads to 鈥渆ven more help and commitment from NATO countries.鈥�
They might tell Ukraine to 鈥渃ut it out,鈥� and to use the resources to instead conduct these strikes on the front lines or 鈥渕ore tactically relevant targets,鈥� Mr. Friedman notes. But he adds that Kyiv likely won鈥檛 listen, unless the United States or one of the 鈥渂ig countries鈥� like Germany pushes the matter.
In the meantime, European governments along the Russian border are pursuing antidrone technology. Tolerance for such incursions among the general public might even grow with Ukraine鈥檚 battlefield gains, some analysts say.
But what officials owe citizens for now, Ms. Berzina says, is frank conversation. 鈥淭hey are capable of understanding complex situations 鈥� it doesn鈥檛 help to infantilize them.鈥�
What does help is leaders explaining 鈥渉ow much can be done, how much can鈥檛 be done, and what risk will continue to exist,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭hat element of honesty can, I think, help counter outrage.鈥�
