Trump-Putin summit prospect brings Moscow in from the cold
-
Ned Temko Columnist
| London
Welcome back, Vladimir! All is forgiven.
That鈥檚 the message President Donald Trump delivered, first in a phone call last week, and now very publicly, to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
No matter how this ultimately affects negotiations over Ukraine, the country Mr. Putin invaded three years ago: Mr. Trump鈥檚 embrace of the man who started Europe鈥檚 most devastating conflict since World War II is likely to have a lasting impact on U.S. alliances worldwide.
Why We Wrote This
President Trump鈥檚 readiness to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with the aggressor, Vladimir Putin, while blaming the victim, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has thrown the Western alliance into its worst crisis since World War II.
One of its immediate effects seems irreversible.
In a major victory for Moscow even before Ukraine talks have begun, the U.S. president has abandoned a core element of the allied response to Mr. Putin鈥檚 unprovoked war: isolating Russia and excluding it from the top table of world diplomacy.
After last week鈥檚 phone call, the first such contact since the 2022 invasion, Mr. Trump sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Moscow鈥檚 delegation also included Mr. Putin鈥檚 top foreign policy aide and the head of Russia鈥檚 sovereign wealth fund.
All three men are still subject to international sanctions imposed after Russia鈥檚 attack.
If, as Mr. Trump predicted this week, he and Mr. Putin hold summit talks in the coming days, Moscow鈥檚 diplomatic isolation will be in tatters.
So, too, will be a long-unquestioned consensus among the U.S. and its allies: that Mr. Putin鈥檚 invasion and destruction of Ukraine represent a danger to Europe鈥檚 security and a violation of international law, and are simply wrong.
In recent days, Mr. Trump has increasingly echoed Mr. Putin鈥檚 narrative about the war.
He has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a 鈥渄ictator鈥� who bore responsibility for the war, because he could have negotiated a way out by simply ceding parts of his country to Mr. Putin.
Mr. Trump added that, like the Russian leader, he believed Mr. Zelenskyy should hold an election 鈥� delayed because of the war 鈥� before being given a seat at talks to determine his country鈥檚 future.
Mr. Trump claimed recent polls had Mr. Zelenskyy 鈥渄own at 4% in approval rating,鈥� in an apparent nod to Kremlin arguments that he lacks political legitimacy.
In fact, the suggests he enjoys nearly 60% backing, comfortably above Mr. Trump鈥檚 own poll numbers.
Beyond the alarm in Europe at Mr. Trump鈥檚 U-turn on Russia, allies further afield will be worried about what the move portends for his broader foreign policy in the next four years.
Until now, countries such as Japan, or Australia, have shared the Europeans鈥� view that by signaling their readiness to address Mr. Trump鈥檚 concerns about investment and trade, they might find sufficient common ground to ensure their decades-long partnerships held firm.
In the early weeks of Mr. Trump鈥檚 second administration, the rule of thumb has been to avoid overreacting to public statements they find worrisome. Private discussions with Washington, they trust, will yield more considered policies.
That is still what European governments want to believe regarding Ukraine, having taken some encouragement from more nuanced statements by U.S. officials including Secretary of State Rubio and Mr. Trump鈥檚 Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg.
They know, however, that only Mr. Trump鈥檚 voice will matter in the end.
And he appears to have developed a far more coherent overall view of what he wants to accomplish in the world than he had during his first term.
It is a vision of an America laser-centered on its own economic interests聽鈥� wielding its influence, above all through the threat of tariffs, to drive harder bargains with its allies. Mr. Trump鈥檚 use of his personal leverage to shape relations with other world leaders and rivals, such as Vladimir Putin, is key to his vision.
During his first term, America鈥檚 alliances survived some battering to emerge largely unscathed.
But that was in part due to the presence of senior figures 鈥� such as former National Security Adviser John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, CIA director and later Secretary of State 鈥� who intermittently tried to moderate Mr. Trump鈥檚 thinking.
That was the case, for instance, during a first-term bout of summitry with similarities to this week鈥檚 Russia embrace: his meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
After their first summit, he surprised Asian allies by suddenly canceling regular military exercises by U.S. and South Korean forces 鈥� adopting North Korean vocabulary by referring to them as 鈥渨ar games.鈥�
But in the end, despite what Mr. Trump had described as a political love affair with Mr. Kim, North Korea refused to give up its nuclear weapons program, as Mr. Trump had demanded it should.
European governments believe it is equally unlikely that Mr. Putin will abandon his stated conditions for ending the war, including recognition of Russia鈥檚 annexation of eastern Ukraine and a refusal to accept Ukrainian membership of NATO.
Their deepening concern is that Mr. Trump, who said Wednesday that the Russians 鈥渉ave the cards鈥� in negotiations over Ukraine鈥檚 future, might, in fact, agree with the Russian leader鈥檚 arguments.
In the absence of any sign so far of serious pushback from within the administration, that will leave European countries, and Ukraine, to fend for themselves.
