Will the West really back Ukraine 鈥榝or as long as it takes鈥�?
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Ned Temko Columnist
| London
It has become the forgotten war, overshadowed by the conflagration in the Middle East.
Yet Ukraine鈥檚 increasingly difficult battle against Russia鈥檚 invasion force 鈥� far from having gone away 鈥� is entering a crucial stage.
The next few weeks could go a long way to deciding how and when it ends.
Why We Wrote This
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy fears his allies鈥� commitment may be flagging. He lost an opportunity to rally them this weekend when an aid donors鈥� meeting was called off because Hurricane Milton is keeping U.S. President Joe Biden at home.
That鈥檚 because Russia鈥檚 troops have been pushing inexorably forward in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, while its missiles and drones have pounded towns, cities, and critical infrastructure across the country.
And Ukraine鈥檚 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is urgently trying to shore up what he fears is flagging commitment from the United States and his other key Western allies.
He was dealt a fresh setback in that effort this week from an unexpected source: Mother Nature.
With Hurricane Milton bearing down on Florida, U.S. President Joe Biden postponed a meeting this weekend in Germany of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group 鈥� the coalition of nearly 50 countries that Washington assembled to help arm Ukraine after Russia鈥檚 invasion.
Leaders from key NATO allies, including Mr. Biden himself, were due to attend, and Mr. Zelenskyy was hoping to persuade them to provide the support he鈥檚 convinced is needed to turn the battlefield tide in Ukraine鈥檚 favor.
The meeting had taken on even greater importance after he failed to win a firm commitment from Mr. Biden to support his 鈥渧ictory plan鈥� during White House talks at the end of last month.
Part of the challenge Mr. Zelenskyy will face, when the leaders do eventually convene, is to convince them that he can meaningfully shift the course of a war in which both sides have taken enormous casualties and in which neither seems able to deliver a knockout blow.
persuading Washington to loosen its restrictions on Ukraine鈥檚 use of the long-range missiles it鈥檚 been given by the U.S. and Britain. Washington has long resisted taking that step out of concern that Russia might attack NATO鈥檚 European flank in response.
Being able to use the missiles鈥� full range could allow Ukraine to strike at drone and missile bases inside Russia, as well as disrupt supply lines to its invading troops.
The Ukrainians are also seeking weapons to outfit 14 new brigades that have been trained by NATO over the past two years.
They believe all that would allow them to build on their surprise August incursion into Russia鈥檚 Kursk region, where they still hold hundreds of square miles of territory.
It would also balance Russia鈥檚 widening coalition of military supporters. This week, there was a might send troops to fight in Ukraine. And Iran, a key supplier of drones for the Russian invasion force, is now also delivering ballistic missiles.
Yet what Mr. Zelenskyy really hopes to accomplish is to reinforce the underlying political message that resonated so powerfully in allied capitals in the early months of the invasion.
That message is stark: that the security of Europe and America itself would suffer if Russia succeeds in subjugating a neighboring country for having chosen to align itself with the democratic West.
Mr. Zelenskyy will argue that there is now a growing risk the conflict will end in just such a victory for the Russian president. That could happen with either with a negotiated settlement on Mr. Putin鈥檚 terms, or with open-ended warfare that will eventually devastate Ukraine without exhausting the capacity of a far larger, more populous, and rearmed Russia.
His immediate concern is that the world has shifted its eyes to the conflict in the Mideast.
That has pushed Ukraine down Washington鈥檚 list of policy imperatives, even as U.S. election politics have been making it harder for Ukraine鈥檚 message to break through.
The Republican candidate in next month鈥檚 presidential election, Donald Trump, has criticized the scale of U.S. support for Ukraine. He has voiced sympathy for Russia鈥檚 contention that it has a legitimate claim to Ukraine. And he says he鈥檒l end the war within days of the election if he wins.
That helps explain the urgency of Mr. Zelenskyy鈥檚 efforts.
It may also explain why he鈥檚 been pinning his hopes on the broader allied meeting in Germany. For his message does resonate with European NATO members.
Britain, France, and those countries lying nearest Russia 鈥� Poland and the Baltic states 鈥� share Mr. Zelenskyy鈥檚 view of the peril in allowing Mr. Putin to win. They agree that Moscow might well then threaten other neighbors.
Their chances of persuading Washington to join a concerted new show of support for Ukraine may depend on an even broader international argument.
It is that after the U.S. made repeated pledges to back Ukraine 鈥渇or as long as it takes,鈥� permitting Russia to prevail would weaken trust in Washington among allies far beyond Europe.
In Asia, for instance, where China has vowed to 鈥渞eunite鈥� the island democracy of Taiwan with the mainland.
Elsewhere, too. Mr. Putin is due to meet Iran鈥檚 new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, at the end of this week. And that may signal repercussions in the very part of the world that has been crowding Ukraine off America鈥檚 top-priority policy agenda:
The Middle East.
