Unity is key, say experts anticipating debates at NATO summit
| Washington
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues with no end in sight, NATO鈥檚 much-celebrated unity faces fresh strains when leaders gather for their annual summit this week in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The world鈥檚 biggest security alliance is struggling to reach an agreement on聽admitting Sweden聽as its 32nd member. Military spending by member nations lags behind long-standing goals. An inability to compromise over who should serve as NATO鈥檚 next leader聽forced an extension聽of the current secretary-general鈥檚 term for an extra year.
Perhaps the most difficult questions are over how Ukraine should be eased into NATO. Some maintain admitting Ukraine would fulfill a promise made years ago and be a necessary step to deter Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Others fear it would be seen as a provocation that could spiral into an even wider conflict.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 ready for membership in NATO,鈥� President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview airing Sunday. He said joining NATO requires countries to 鈥渕eet all the qualifications, from democratization to a whole range of other issues.鈥�
He said the United States should provide long-term security assistance to Ukraine 鈥� 鈥渢he capacity to defend themselves鈥� 鈥� as it does with Israel.
Bickering among friends is not uncommon, and the current catalogue of disputes pales in comparison with past fears that聽Donald Trump would turn his back on the alliance聽during his presidency. But the current challenges come at a moment when Mr. Biden and his counterparts are heavily invested in demonstrating harmony among members.
鈥淎ny fissure, any lack of solidarity provides an opportunity for those who would oppose the alliance,鈥� said Douglas Lute, U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is eager to exploit divisions as he struggles to gain ground in Ukraine and faces political challenges at home, including聽the aftermath聽of a brief revolt by the聽Wagner mercenary group.
鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to present any openings,鈥� Mr. Lute said. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to present any gaps or seams.鈥�
By some measures, the war in Ukraine has reinvigorated NATO, which was created at the beginning of the Cold War as a bulwark against Moscow. NATO members have聽poured military hardware into Ukraine聽to help with its counteroffensive, and Finland ended a history of nonalignment to become聽NATO鈥檚 31st member.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 appropriate to look at all the success,鈥� Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky told The Associated Press. 鈥淪o I think the invasion has strengthened NATO 鈥� exactly the opposite of what Putin anticipated.鈥�
He noted Germany鈥檚 shift toward a more robust defense policy as well as increase in military spending in other countries.
The latest test of NATO solidarity came Friday with what Mr. Biden said was a 鈥渄ifficult decision鈥� to provide聽cluster munitions聽to Ukraine. More than two-thirds of alliance members have banned the weapon because it has聽a track record聽for causing many civilian casualties. The U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are not among the more than 120 countries that have not signed a convention outlawing the use of the bombs.
As for Ukraine鈥檚 possible entry into NATO, the alliance said in 2008 that Kyiv eventually would become a member. Since then, little action has been taken toward that goal. Mr. Putin occupied parts of Ukraine in 2014 and then tried to capture the capital in 2022 with his invasion.
鈥淎 gray zone is a green light for Putin,鈥� said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland who is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Ukraine鈥檚 president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, called for a unified signal from NATO on Ukraine and for his country to join the alliance.
鈥淚t would be an important message to say that NATO is not afraid of Russia,鈥� Mr. Zelenskyy said through a translator in an ABC interview, when asked whether he would come to Vilnius. 鈥淯kraine should get clear security guarantees while it is not in NATO. And that is a very important point. Only under these conditions our meeting would be meaningful. Otherwise, it鈥檚 just another politics.鈥�
The U.S. and Germany insist that the focus should be on supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, rather than taking the more provocative step of extending a formal invitation to join NATO. Countries on NATO鈥檚 Eastern flank 鈥� Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland 鈥� want firmer assurances on future membership.
NATO could decide to elevate its relationship with Ukraine, creating what would be known as the NATO-Ukraine Council and giving Kyiv a seat at the table for consultations.
Also in the spotlight in Vilnius will be Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, the main obstacle to Sweden鈥檚 attempts to join NATO alongside neighbor Finland.
Mr. Erdo臒an accuses Sweden of being too lenient on anti-Islamic demonstrations and militant Kurdish groups that have waged a long insurgency in Turkey.
Sweden recently changed its anti-terrorism legislation and lifted an arms embargo on Turkey. But a man聽burned a Quran outside a mosque聽in Stockholm last week, and Mr. Erdo臒an signaled that this would pose another hurdle. He equated 鈥渢hose who permitted the crime鈥� to those who perpetrated it.
Turkey and the U.S. are also at an impasse over the sale of F-16 fighter jets. Mr. Erdo臒an wants the upgraded planes, but Mr. Biden says Sweden鈥檚 NATO membership has to be dealt with first. Mr. McConnell said in the AP interview that he supports the sale of the fighter jets to Turkey 鈥減rovided that the membership of Sweden is settled.鈥�
It鈥檚 not the first time that Mr. Erdo臒an has sought to use a NATO summit for Turkish gain. In 2009, he held up the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as secretary-general but agreed to the move after securing some senior posts for Turkish officials at the alliance.
Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who leads the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there鈥檚 growing frustration among allies toward Mr. Erdo臒an, building on concerns about his ties to Mr. Putin, democratic backsliding, and sanctions evasion.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e tried playing nice,鈥� Mr. Bergmann said. 鈥淭he question is whether it鈥檚 time to get much more confrontational.鈥�
Hungary鈥檚 prime minister, Viktor Orban, is also delaying his country鈥檚 approval of Sweden鈥檚 membership. In response, Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is blocking a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Hungary.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 want members who aren鈥檛 interested in doing everything possible to strengthen the alliance rather than the pursuit of their own or individual interests,鈥� Senator Risch said. 鈥淚鈥檓 just sick and tired of it.鈥�
But he rejected the idea that these disagreements are a sign of weakness within NATO.
鈥淭hese are kinds of things that always arise in an alliance,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he fact that we鈥檝e been able to deal with them and will continue to deal with them proves that this is the most successful and strongest military alliance in the history of the world.鈥�
At least one potentially difficult issue is off the summit agenda. Rather than seek consensus on a new NATO leader, members agreed to extend the tenure of Jens Stoltenberg, who鈥檚 held the job since 2014, for a year. It鈥檚 his fourth extension.
Most members wanted a woman to be the next secretary-general, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had been considered a favorite. But Poland insisted on a candidate from the Baltic states because there had already been two Nordic secretaries general in a row. (Mr. Stoltenberg was a Norwegian prime minister and Mr. Rasmussen was a Danish prime minister.)
Others are skeptical of accepting a nominee from the Baltics, whose leaders tend to be more provocative in their approach to Russia, including supporting Ukraine鈥檚 desire to rapidly join NATO.
More disagreements loom over NATO鈥檚聽updated plans for countering any invasion聽that Russia might launch on allied territory.
This story was reported by The Associated Press.聽AP writer Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed to this report.
