海角大神

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Western sanctions aiming to cause panic and shortages among Russians . The scene at the suburban Europark shopping mall in Moscow seems to bear that out.

A few Western-owned stores, like The Body Shop and L鈥橭ccitane, have notices pasted on their doors that cite temporary closure, with no reason given. But many local franchises, selling luggage, curtains, appliances, perfumes, shoes, fashion clothing, and electronics, all seem to be working as usual.

Editor鈥檚 note: This article was edited in order to conform with Russian legislation criminalizing references to Russia鈥檚 current action in Ukraine as anything other than a 鈥渟pecial military operation.鈥�

The giant French-owned Auchan hypermarket downstairs has bursting shelves and full stocks of almost everything from toilet paper, to fresh meats and vegetables, citrus fruits and bananas, to a wide range of domestic cheeses and dairy products. Only if you were looking for a few specific products, such as Kellogg鈥檚 brand muesli or Finnish cream cheese, might you notice they are gone.

Two months into the 鈥渟pecial military operation鈥� against Ukraine, accompanied by the most comprehensive barrage of sanctions ever leveled against any country, Russian life, at least around Moscow, looks shockingly normal. that huge majorities of Russians don鈥檛 expect the sanctions to have any impact on their lives, and almost 10% say they didn鈥檛 even know about the situation.

鈥淔or the most part we are still living in our previous reality,鈥� says Ivan Timofeev, a sanctions expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry. 鈥淏ut at some point we will begin transitioning to a new reality, and then it will be very hard to ignore the deep changes we shall have to make.鈥�

鈥淭hings actually seem better鈥�

If you happened to be at loose ends in Moscow this week and wanted to sit in an upscale coffee shop, sip a latte, and use the Wi-Fi, you鈥檇 be spoiled for choice. Restaurants, beauty salons, grocery stores, car repair services, indeed, the full range of consumer services are still operating almost normally. Thanks to 鈥� which was trading at around 130 to the U.S. dollar barely a month ago but has climbed above its pre-February value, to around 80 鈥� the price hikes, though very real, are not yet too worrisome.

Back at the Europark mall, clearly named in a more optimistic time, you need to squint hard to spot the emerging supply gaps.

At the food court upstairs, McDonald鈥檚 and KFC have been shuttered for weeks. But there is still a pizza stand, an Asian wok place, and a Vietnamese restaurant. Baskin-Robbins continues to dispense about a dozen flavors of ice cream. Teremok, a Russian fast-food outlet that serves up borscht, blini (pancakes), pelmeni (meat dumplings), and Russian salads (vegetables in mayonnaise), seems to be enjoying newfound popularity. Irina, eating some combination of that with her preteen son, Vova, insists the choices are probably healthier now.

鈥淭hings have been strange for quite a while,鈥� she says. 鈥淟ast year, during the pandemic, none of these shops were even open. Things actually seem better.鈥�

If you were craving American-style fast food, nearby outlets of Burger King and Subway are doing a roaring business with their signature offerings. That can be explained by the franchise system, which really took off in Russia over the past decade or so. The head offices of those companies may have left Russia, but the individual outlets continue working.

The manager of a local Burger King, who didn鈥檛 want his name mentioned, says that he can source almost all the items on his old menu locally, and carry on indefinitely. He admits a few adjustments will have to be made, including new packaging and some substitute condiments and seasonings. It won鈥檛 look, or perhaps taste, exactly the same, but most people won鈥檛 even notice, he insists.

鈥淚 am pretty sure food isn鈥檛 going to be a problem no matter how serious the sanctions get,鈥� says Mr. Timofeev. That鈥檚 a politically potent point, since major turning points in Russian history have often been driven by the curse of famine. 鈥淩ussian agriculture is pretty self-sufficient today and whatever outside inputs, like seeds and equipment, can probably be replaced.鈥�

And those foodstuffs that Russia does need to import can be acquired from countries that are not part of the West鈥檚 sanctions regime. Some of the biggest sources of citrus fruits are Turkey and former Soviet countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. And Russia gets its sugar largely from Brazil, which has not signed on to sanctions.

Obviously Russia has no domestic energy shortages. Prices for home heating and electricity are stable and relatively low. No potential shocks there. The price of gasoline in Moscow was 53 rubles per liter [about $2.85 per gallon] last week, and hasn鈥檛 changed much in recent years.

Fred Weir

Customers line up at Teremok, a Russian fast-food outlet that serves soups, dumplings, cabbage rolls, and pancakes, at the Europark shopping mall in suburban Moscow, on April 28, 2022.

Back to the 鈥�90s?

When asked, many Russians say that whatever happens, they will find ways to cope. That perspective is probably informed by their past lives in the former Soviet Union, an economy that survived seven decades producing almost everything it consumed, from cabbages to paper clips to rocket ships. During the near-total economic implosion in the 1990s, Russians grew their own food, routinely used pirated versions of software and movies, and fell back on barter, family, and community networks to survive.

No one seems to believe the present crisis is going to get that bad. But experts warn that it鈥檚 early, and the real crunch in supply chains and crippled industrial capacities probably won鈥檛 arrive until at least next year.

There are serious worries about parts and servicing for the Japanese and European cars that millions of Russians drive. Most Western automotive giants are among the hundreds of foreign companies that have pulled out of Russia since February, shredding their warranties in the process. The cost of many spare parts has leapt by as much as 50% in recent weeks, according to .

But new logistics chains are already being sourced to companies in China, the article says, a big manufacturer of car parts for the whole world.

Even brand-name Western products will keep arriving through 鈥済ray distribution鈥� networks, much like those pioneered by other sanctioned countries like Iran, says Andrei Movchan, an independent economist. One of many examples of how that works is , which promises to purchase any goods the customer wants, and pass them on for payment in rubles to the Russian end user.

鈥淚t will be more difficult and expensive, but nobody will have to go without their gadgets and other comforts,鈥� says Mr. Movchan. 鈥淚n the longer term, Russian industry is capable of producing a lot of things, or it can be ramped up to do so. It鈥檚 just that it will be the technology of 20 years ago, worse quality, higher costs. That鈥檚 not good, but we can survive it.鈥�

And then there鈥檚 outright piracy, a fixture of 鈥�90s life in Russia, now set to make a comeback. For example, several Moscow cinemas are currently screening 鈥淭he Batman鈥� and other first-run Hollywood films, even though their licenses to do so have been revoked. That鈥檚 controversial, even in Russia, and there is a heated discussion about it in the entertainment press.

鈥淚鈥檓 afraid we are headed back to the future,鈥� says Alexey Raevsky, director of Zecurion, a Moscow cybersecurity firm. He says the departure of Western competitors has been a big boost to his business.

鈥淲hen we are talking about software development, there is no issue of spare parts or physical facilities. It鈥檚 just a digital code,鈥� he says. 鈥淎s they say, nature abhors a vacuum. I talk to people in places like Iran and Syria, where they are strictly forbidden to buy Microsoft or Cisco software, but they say they always have the latest installed on their computers. I鈥檝e never asked them how they do that, but I am sure we鈥檒l find out.鈥�