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Fears are rising about what would happen to Europe鈥檚 energy supply if Russia were to invade Ukraine and then shut off natural gas exports in retaliation for聽United States and European sanctions.

The tensions show the risk of聽Europe鈥檚 reliance on Russia for energy, which supplies about a third of the continent鈥檚 natural gas. And Europe鈥檚 stockpile is already low. While the U.S. has pledged to help by boosting exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, there鈥檚 only so much it can produce at once.

It leaves Europe in a potential crisis, with its聽gas already sapped聽by a cold winter last year, a summer with little renewable energy generation and Russia delivering less than usual. Prices have skyrocketed,聽squeezing households and businesses.

Here鈥檚 what to know about Europe鈥檚 energy supply if聽tensions boil over聽into war and聽Russia is hit with sanctions:

Will Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe?聽

No one knows for sure, but a complete shutoff is seen as unlikely, because it would be mutually destructive.

Russian officials have not signaled they would consider cutting supplies in the case of new sanctions. Moscow relies on energy exports, and though it聽just signed a gas deal with China, Europe is a key source of revenue.

Europe is likewise dependent on Russia, so any Western sanctions would likely avoid directly targeting Russian energy supplies.

More likely, experts say, would be Russia withholding gas sent through pipelines crossing Ukraine. Russia pumped 175 billion cubic meters of gas into Europe last year, nearly a quarter of it through those pipelines, according to S&P Global Platts. That would leave pipelines under the Baltic Sea and through Poland still operating.

鈥淚 think in the event of even a less severe Russian attack against Ukraine, the Russians are almost certain to cut off gas transiting Ukraine on the way to Germany,鈥� said former U.S. diplomat Dan Fried, who as State Department coordinator for sanctions policy helped craft 2014 measures against Russia when it invaded and annexed Ukraine鈥檚 Crimea peninsula.

Russia could then offer to make up the lost gas if Germany approves the contentious new聽Nord Stream 2 pipeline, whose operators could face potential U.S. sanctions even though a聽recent vote to that effect failed.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press鈥� that the Biden administration has coordinated with its allies and that 鈥渋f Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.鈥�

Interrupting gas supplies beyond the Ukrainian pipelines is less likely: 鈥淚f they push it too far, they鈥檙e going to make a breach with Europe irreparable, and they have to sell the oil and gas someplace,鈥� Mr. Fried said.

What can the U.S. do?聽

It鈥檚 a major gas producer and already is sending record levels of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by ship worldwide. It could only help Europe a little.

鈥淲e鈥檙e talking about small increases to the size of U.S. exports, whereas the hole that Europe would need to fill if Russia backed away or if Europe cut Russia off would be much larger than that,鈥� said Ross Wyeno, lead analyst for Americas LNG at S&P.

The聽Biden administration has been talking with gas producers聽worldwide about whether they can boost output and ship to Europe, and it has been working to identify supplies of natural gas from North Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S.

The administration also is talking with buyers about holding off.

鈥淚s there some other country that was planning to get an LNG shipment that doesn鈥檛 need it and could give it to Europe?鈥� said Amy Myers Jaffe, managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University, mentioning Brazil or countries in Asia.

Over the past month, two-thirds of American LNG exports went to Europe. Some ships filled with LNG were heading to Asia but turned around to go to Europe because buyers there offered to pay higher prices, S&P said.

Is there enough liquefied gas worldwide to solve the problem?聽

Not in the event of a full cutoff, and it can鈥檛 be increased overnight. Export terminals cost billions of dollars to build and are working at capacity in the U.S.

Even if all Europe鈥檚 LNG import facilities were operating at capacity, the amount of gas would only be about two-thirds of what Russia sends via pipelines, Ms. Jaffe said.

And there could be challenges distributing the LNG to parts of Europe that have fewer pipeline connections.

If Russia stopped sending just the gas that goes through Ukraine, it would take the equivalent of about 1.27 shiploads of additional LNG per day to replace that supply, said Luke Cottell, senior LNG analyst at S&P. Russia also could reroute some of that gas through other pipelines, reducing the need for additional LNG to about a half-shipload per day, he said.

Is Russia already supplying less gas?聽

Russia has been fulfilling its long-term contracts to supply gas to Europe, but it鈥檚 been聽selling less on the spot market聽and hasn鈥檛 been filling the storage containers it owns in Europe, experts say.

鈥淚t鈥檚 already happened. It鈥檚 not theoretical,鈥� Ms. Jaffe said.

Russian cutbacks to spot gas supplies have contributed to聽sharply higher natural gas prices in Europe. They went as high as 166 euros ($190) per megawatt hour in December, more than eight times their level at the start of 2021. Prices have fallen to under 80 euros per kilowatt hour as more LNG arrives.

But consumers are feeling the crunch in聽higher electric and gas bills. European governments are聽rolling out subsidies and tax breaks聽to ease the financial stress on households.

Is there impact in the U.S.?聽

As the U.S. ramped up LNG exports, domestic prices of natural gas also rose. More than 10% of gas produced in the U.S. last year was exported, said Clark Williams-Derry, analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

U.S. gas prices spiked by more than 30%聽in the last week of January, primarily because of an approaching winter storm in New England, Mr. Williams-Derry said. But prices also were affected by tighter U.S. supplies amid uncertainty over Russia, he said.

鈥淩ussia is disturbing European gas markets, with the U.S. talking about exporting basically the next 鈥楤erlin airlift鈥� for natural gas to Europe,鈥欌�� he said.

If the U.S. pushes for increased LNG exports, prices at home would likely rise, Mr. Williams-Derry added.

Ten Democratic senators, led by Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Angus King of Maine, recently urged the Energy Department to study the effect of higher exports on domestic prices and pause approvals of proposed terminals. They said they understood 鈥済eopolitical factors鈥� give rise to sending more gas.

鈥淗owever, the administration must also consider the potential increase in cost to American families,鈥欌�� the senators said.

This story was reported by The Associated Press.聽Cathy聽Bussewitz reported from New York and Matthew Daly from Washington.