Germany without Merkel: Where does Europe鈥檚 engine go next?
| Berlin
Nina Sch枚nefeld speaks of growing up in Berlin with a half-Korean best friend, and Turkish, Serbian, and South African classmates. Multicultural, inclusive, and forward-thinking: That鈥檚 the vision that she, as an artist and documentary filmmaker, believes should be Germany鈥檚 present and future.
There鈥檚 just a small problem: 鈥淭he far-right wing has taken over these villages in Germany,鈥� says Ms. Sch枚nefeld, whose most recent film deals with a dystopic future in which autocrats pushed democracy underground. She鈥檚 worried Germany is headed in the same direction.
Germany鈥檚 traditional parties are partly to blame, says Ms. Sch枚nefeld. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e too old-fashioned, too honest, too out-of-touch. They haven鈥檛 been knocking on doors,鈥� she says. 鈥淵ou have whole villages with signs saying, 鈥楾his is the way to Adolf Hitler鈥檚 birth town.鈥� They have to take care of this movement.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Angela Merkel has set the path of Germany and Europe for two decades. But with the chancellor鈥檚 tenure nearing its end and her one-time heir apparent now out, the vision of Germany's future is suddenly unclear.
Germany is at a political inflection point. Helmed by Chancellor Angela Merkel for nearly two decades, the once formidable 海角大神 Democratic Union (CDU) has presided over a prosperous Germany that earned the world鈥檚 respect. But over the last decade, the far-right and far-left have steadily picked away at its flanks.
Now, with Ms. Merkel鈥檚 hand-picked successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, stepping down from party leadership and a battle for succession underway, the path forward for Germany鈥檚 political mainstream looks shaky. Will Germany鈥檚 next leader continue Ms. Merkel鈥檚 risk-averse status quo, or will he use the muscle that comes with being Europe鈥檚 largest economy to chart a new course for the country 鈥� and for Europe?
鈥淚t would be tempting for the next chancellor to fill his calendar with domestic issues,鈥� says Jan Techau, director of the Europe Program at The German Marshall Fund. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 a luxury that won鈥檛 happen. You need to be gutsy.鈥�
Migration issues, whopping losses
Late-February elections in the city of Hamburg saw the CDU鈥檚 support whittled down to 11%, pegged by analysts as a 70-year low. Earlier in the year came another sign of weakness: The local CDU in the state of Thuringia aligned with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to help defeat a left-wing governor, the first time a mainstream party had aligned with the far-right since the Hitler era. The resulting furor ultimately had national repercussions, prompting Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer to step down.
That local party鈥檚 defiance demonstrated not only Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer鈥檚 tenuous grip on power, but also the complexity in figuring out what to do with extremist parties. In short, not everyone agrees. Meanwhile, after enjoying peak popularity in 2013, polling at more than 40%, the CDU is now logging support nationally around .
Stamping out the far-right is a domestic challenge that could easily consume the leadership; its rise was enabled, in part, by the issue of migration. In 2015, Ms. Merkel suspended a protocol about 鈥渟afe鈥� countries, which ultimately led to 1 million refugees entering Germany.
Ms. Merkel鈥檚 party was seen as 鈥渢oo open and welcoming, and not tough enough,鈥� says Mr. Techau, the analyst. 鈥淏oth on security, but also not demanding enough from newcomers to integrate and learn the language.鈥�
Neglect, and the rise of the Greens
Then there鈥檚 the feeling that Germany has long-neglected domestic issues of great importance, including failing to upgrade digital infrastructure that鈥檚 among the oldest and slowest in Europe. A recent survey from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in fact, found that Germany ranked 29th out of 34 industrialized economies for internet speeds.
鈥淲e have a low degree of digitization, and in order to get a permit to run fibers from Point A to Point B, it takes forever,鈥� says Yorck Otto, president of Germany鈥檚 leading business association for small and medium-sized companies.
鈥淐razy levels of bureaucracy,鈥� he says, are also hindering startup culture and miring companies in months, if not years, of paperwork. Taxation rates in Germany are also among the highest in Europe, a point that comes up in almost every conversation about domestic politics.
Enter the Green Party, which has swept into the European mainstream with its timely emphasis on social justice and climate change. It has resounded with a progressive middle class that鈥檚 finding it increasingly difficult to identify with the older, more staid mainstream parties. The Greens are no longer the forbidding no-meat, no-car eco-nerds of yesteryear, and are now the second-largest party in Germany after the CDU.
鈥淵ou can drive an SUV and vote Green and feel good about yourself,鈥� says Josef Janning, a political scientist and former fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e cashmere sweaters now 鈥� soft and very convenient.鈥�
鈥淓xtremist parties make everything more complicated,鈥� continues Mr. Janning. 鈥淎s they gain power it begs the question of whether to align with them, or ignore them. Squeeze them out, or integrate them?鈥�
Meanwhile, Germany鈥檚 role in foreign affairs has become a real concern. Attention to national security has slipped under Ms. Merkel, and Europe can no longer rely on the United States to police the Middle East.
鈥淒oes Germany feel any sense of agency? To do the geopolitical hedging, taking fights, picking sides, and create outcomes?鈥� asks Mr. Techau. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been shying away from that, but without Germany, Europe cannot move.鈥�
Jockeying for position
A handful of men have raised a hand to rule Germany鈥檚 biggest party. A special conference to choose the next leader is scheduled for late April.
Armin Laschet, premier of Germany鈥檚 largest state of North-Rhine Westphalia, is the most moderate of the declared candidates, and is among the favorites to win.聽Health Minister Jens Spahn, a young politician who鈥檚 recently enjoyed high visibility dealing with COVID-19鈥檚 arrival in Germany,聽earlier announced his own ambitions, but Mr. Laschet recently recruited him as his potential deputy, with the idea that he shores up the conservative wing of the party. The former parliamentary-leader-turned-financier Friedrich Merz, who ran against Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer in the last round, is the most business-friendly of the bunch. Ms. Merkel鈥檚 former environment minister, Norbert R枚ttgen, is also in, representing the least likely bid.
Thus begins months of 鈥渘avel-gazing and soul-searching,鈥� says Mr. Janning, the analyst, who expects a more 鈥淕ermany-centric political rhetoric鈥� in the future.
Yet others believe Germany鈥檚 next leaders should resist the temptation to focus only on domestic challenges. 鈥淕ermany is aware of its responsibility for a strong Europe,鈥� says former parliamentary journalist Verena K枚ttker, who remarks that closing ranks with the rest of Europe will increase the bloc鈥檚 negotiating power on everything from trade to peacemaking. 鈥淥nly together can we face the USA, China, and Russia on equal footing.鈥�
Timing is important. The businessman, Dr. Otto, says the CDU must figure out its organizational setup 鈥渘ow, not tomorrow. Now.鈥� Even so, he expresses confidence in the bench that鈥檚 been waiting patiently. 鈥淭he CDU has the ability, the power, the people, the talent to bring Germany forward within Europe and the world, though the world has gotten very difficult and violent.鈥� Among other issues, Dr. Otto says he鈥檇 like to see stronger efforts to stamp out cyberterrorism against German companies.
鈥淭hese are our voters鈥�
On a cold February night, one week after Ms. Kramp-Karrenbauer鈥檚 resignation announcement, Bernd Pfeiffer joined a dozen CDU members in a backroom of a popular pub in Friedrichshain. It鈥檚 a district where the far-right has succeeded in plucking away CDU voters. The worry 鈥� as well as the excitement in the room 鈥� was obvious.
鈥淚t is our duty to do the hard work to push the right out so that they are no longer in parliament,鈥� opined Mr. Pfeiffer. 鈥淭hese are our voters. These are our voices. We need them in order to be a people鈥檚 party again.鈥�
The words 鈥渓eft鈥� and 鈥渞ight鈥� were dominant in the meeting, as the attendees mulled over what kind of leadership team might best tackle that task. One said that center parties are always strong when an outstanding personality shored up both the left and right flanks, such as legendary, blue-chip politicians Helmut Kohl and Franz Josef Strauss, respectively. The group murmured.
Later, in an interview, Mr. Pfeiffer said he鈥檚 working behind the scenes to make sure the CDU remembers its roots. Though he鈥檚 vowed never to join the far-right, Mr. Pfeiffer said his inflection point as a longtime CDU loyalist came over Ms. Merkel鈥檚 controversial decisions on immigration. 鈥淲e have a strong asylum policy, and that鈥檚 great. But we also have 450 people a day who cross our borders without papers. And no one does anything.鈥�
A tax adviser who grew up in a village outside Hamburg, Mr. Pfeiffer is president of the 海角大神 Union in Berlin, a faction within the party that advocates for conservatism. Since the party鈥檚 leadership has been in question, his phone has been ringing. And ringing. 鈥淭wenty-four hours a day,鈥� he says, giving his black Samsung a concerted shake. 鈥淗undreds and hundreds of messages. Offering support, wanting to join.鈥�
His excitement is palpable, but so is that of Ms. Sch枚nefeld, the artist, whose studio is just a mile or so west of his district. Like Mr. Pfeiffer, she also talks about reforming high taxes on the middle class, but she also speaks of fixing the education system. 鈥淵ou have to refresh the whole system. You have to start from scratch.鈥�
