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Spain鈥檚 Supreme Court is set to rule on the country鈥檚 鈥渢rial of the century鈥� within weeks, deciding the fate of 12 activists and politicians from Catalonia. The defendants are on trial over their involvement in the region鈥檚 Oct. 1, 2017, independence vote, which Madrid considered an act of rebellion.

The separatist saga has polarized Spain鈥檚 politics, and the trials have been a lightning-rod issue for separatist sympathizers and a resurgent far-right. Several observers say the country hasn鈥檛 been so divided since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.听

Regardless of the court鈥檚 decision, it is almost certain to frustrate one of the two groups. The court and country are caught, as the old Spanish saying goes, between the sword and the wall.

What are the charges?听

Ahead of the 2017 independence vote, Spain鈥檚 Constitutional Court ruled the planned referendum illegal. When the Catalan government proceeded anyway, a trial was inevitable, says Sofia Perez, a political science professor at Boston University.

The dozen defendants face charges, varying from misuse of public funds to rebellion, over their role in the referendum. Controversially, some are being held in 鈥減reventive detention鈥� and will have spent two years in jail by the time a decision is announced. Potential penalties range from a temporary ban on holding public office to a maximum of 25 years in prison.

Crucial to the Supreme Court鈥檚 ruling will be how it frames the independence vote. Protest or coup d鈥檈tat? Separatists call it the first and Spanish nationalists the second. To choose between the two, experts say, the judges must decide whether the ensuing violence came from the referendum鈥檚 organizers or the state police.

Why do Catalans want to secede?听

Since Spain鈥檚 15th-century union through the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella, Catalonia has often chafed at its role in the Spanish state. With a distinct language and culture, it has tried and failed to divorce its Castilian partner multiple times. The region is now home to about 16% of Spain鈥檚 a fifth of the country鈥檚 GDP.

Until recently, most Catalan nationalists focused on autonomy 鈥� increased ability to self-govern 鈥� rather than outright separatism, says Dr. Perez. A shift to secession, she says, comes from myopic policy on both sides.

In 2010, Spain鈥檚 constitutional court voided a new Catalan autonomy statute 鈥� essentially a regional constitution 鈥� that would have increased regional autonomy. The ruling enraged Catalans, sparking large protests and radicalizing many of its politicians.听

Around the same time, Spain鈥檚 economy crumbled in the financial crisis, during which unemployment reached 25%. In periods of austerity, many Catalans felt they were propping up Spain鈥檚 poorer regions, paying in more than they were getting out.听

Before the referendum, says Dr. Perez, separatism was just a threat meant to win concessions from Madrid. But Madrid and Barcelona eventually settled into a zero-sum game of chicken in which their positions became entrenched. From the start, almost no one wanted the legal battle that the conflict has brought, she says.

鈥淭he more radical elements on both sides ... made this situation much worse,鈥� writes Sebasti谩n Royo, a professor at Boston鈥檚 Suffolk University, in an email. 鈥淭hey fed each other.鈥�

Still, even at the independence movement鈥檚 peak in October 2017, just under half of Catalans supported secession, according to polls from the Catalan government.听听in July indicated that number had fallen to around 44% as the separatist movement loses momentum and fractures.听

What will a ruling mean for Catalonia and Spain?

Spain has other regions that have sought independence before 鈥� most notably the Basque Country. Catalonia seems the least content at the moment, but Madrid isn鈥檛 taking any chances. Charging secessionist leaders is one way of keeping other independence movements in check, says Gemma Sala, a professor of political science at Grinnell College in Iowa.

Decisions deemed too harsh from Spain鈥檚 top court may invigorate the faltering separatists. Softer verdicts could energize Spanish nationalists, eager to call the state too cavalier. Whether outcry will come from Madrid or Barcelona, there is little chance everyone walks away happy.听

鈥淥ne thing it certainly won鈥檛 do is to bring people together,鈥� says Dr. Sala. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a winner, a loser, or no one. Conciliation won鈥檛 happen through courts.鈥�