海角大神

Around the world, politics are polarizing. From Brexit to Brasilia, from the District of Columbia to the Danube, leaders are ruling from the further reaches of the political spectrum. In today鈥檚 belligerent global mood, is there any fruitful ground for a moderate politician to plow?

Starbucks founder Howard Schultz thinks so; he says the U.S. two-party system is broken, and he鈥檚 planning an independent bid for the presidency. In London, 11 centrist members of Parliament who broke away from the Conservative and Labour parties last month think the same thing as they consider founding a new party.

Polls suggest that a centrist coalition could unseat Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in next month鈥檚 general elections, while in France President Emmanuel Macron is still battling to justify voters鈥� faith in his brand of centrism.

Are these the tentative hints of a new direction, a sign that the populist pendulum may have swung its full arc? Or are they destined to be crushed by angry voters seeking radical solutions from demagogues?

鈥淭he problem with centrism is that its style of moderation and compromise is not in fashion at the moment,鈥� says Pascal Perrineau, a veteran French political analyst. 鈥淏ut its strength is that it seeks solutions beyond the tired old left-right divide. One can imagine new political space emerging from the wreckage of the old system.鈥�

The American moderate

That seems to be Mr. Schultz鈥檚 hope. He says that the two-party duopoly that has long ruled the United States is now a broken system and that 鈥渋t鈥檚 time for a centrist candidate not affiliated with either party to be president.鈥�

Given the intensity of partisanship in today鈥檚 America, and the structure of the Electoral College, his chances of success look slim. But a moderate running on the Democratic ticket, such as former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, or two-term Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, might be better placed to capture and harness the middle ground.

鈥淭here鈥檚 certainly a place鈥� for moderates in national politics, says Seth Masket, director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, in an email.

鈥淏etween Trump鈥檚 behavior and the progressive policies of many of the leading Democratic candidates, more moderate voters may feel they don鈥檛 have great options, and they might see someone like Hickenlooper providing one,鈥� Dr. Masket says.

Both parties have been pulling away from the center for a number of years. Conservatives dominate the Republican Party at all levels, and it is liberals such as new Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York who are providing the Democrats with energy and policy ideas such as the Green New Deal.

Three-quarters of Republican voters call themselves conservatives, and just over half of Democrats describe themselves as liberal 鈥� up from 38 percent in 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president.

Moderate candidates in both parties are few and far between, says Danielle Thomsen, author of 鈥淥pting Out of Congress: Partisan Polarization and the Decline of Moderate Candidates.鈥�

鈥淭hey鈥檙e just not running for office at the same rate鈥� as liberals or conservatives, her research has found. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 really changed dramatically,鈥� she says. 鈥淣ow they鈥檙e only about three or four percent鈥� of each party鈥檚 candidates.

When they do run, they face the sort of challenge that a presidential candidate such as Mr. Biden would be up against: how to fashion a campaign platform that appeals to all the diverse types of moderate in the U.S. political landscape.

Polling by Pew Research Data has found that white voters without a college degree make up 30 percent of Democratic moderates and conservatives, black voters comprise 22 percent, Latinos 21 percent, and white college graduates 16 percent.

Mr. Biden appears potentially capable of appealing to a wide range of demographics, but his main asset as a moderate 鈥� and an asset just as important as any particular policy 鈥� is his avuncular, genial style. In today鈥檚 America, moderation of demeanor and rhetoric could be the key to any centrist presidential candidate鈥檚 chance of success.

Blue and White

As general elections draw near in Israel, there is clearly a growing appetite for such an approach in that country, where the tone of political discourse has grown increasingly bitter over the 10-year rule of hard-line, right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

For the first time, the principal division in the country is not between Jews and Arabs but between left-wing and right-wing Jews, according to a recent study by the Israel Democracy Institute, a leading think tank.

Seeking to bridge that gap is the new 鈥淏lue and White鈥� party, created by a merger of two centrist parties and named for the colors of the Israeli flag. The latest polls put the newcomer ahead of all rivals in the elections next month, as the leftist camp shrinks and moderate right-wingers desert Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 Likud party.

Blue and White is tapping a sentiment that Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 divisive rhetoric, such as his attacks on the media and the criminal justice system, has gone too far, say analysts.

鈥淭here is an agreement among those on the left and some on the right that the incitement has to stop, that it is not OK to call left-wingers traitors, as has been legitimized by this government,鈥� says Gayil Talshir, who teaches politics at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Pollsters have found that while Israeli voters still care about security and peace, they are increasingly concerned by more day-to-day matters. Blue and White, led by a retired general, has serious security credentials but is also focusing on education, health care, public transport, and the cost of living, says Asaf Zamir, one of the new party鈥檚 parliamentary candidates: 鈥淲e have to speak about bread and butter issues.鈥�

The Independent Group

Those are just the sort of issues that moderate Conservatives and moderate Labour Party members in Britain are longing to get their teeth into whenever the Brexit debate is over and politicians can get back to normal life.

鈥淭he vast majority of people 鈥� want answers that improve their daily lives rather than angry, adversarial rhetoric,鈥� says Will Tanner, the young founder of 鈥淥nward,鈥� a reformist Conservative Party think tank in London.

The leaders of both main British parties 鈥渁re setting people against each other,鈥� says Stephanie Lloyd, deputy director of Progress, a centrist pressure group within the Labour Party. 鈥淭he two-party system works if both are broad church, but they are hardening into singular ideologies.鈥�

Does this mean there is room for a new party in the middle? That is what The Independent Group is betting. Its 11 members 鈥� three former Conservative and eight former Labour members of Parliament 鈥� are united by their fears that their parties risk being dominated by extremists. Having broken away from their old parties, they are currently considering creating a new one.

Polls show that, between them, The Independent Group and the Liberal Democrats (a traditional centrist party) command more electoral support than any party other than the ruling Conservatives.

It is very early days, but Nora Mulready hopes that the new grouping will inject 鈥渕ore of the moral and pragmatic essence of centrism鈥� into British politics. Ms. Mulready, a former Labour party activist, is making a series of films designed to stimulate moderate debate of controversial issues to generate ideas to challenge extremist viewpoints.

If centrists are to seize the time, they need to go on the offensive, agrees Ms. Lloyd. 鈥淭he center left has ignored a series of challenges for a long time,鈥� she says, notably the question of immigration. 鈥淲e never made the argument that it is a good thing because we were scared to do so, and that created a vacuum that the extreme right filled.鈥�

Whether聽The Independent Group has a future may depend on how the Labour Party and the Conservative Party react, says Sheri Berman, who teaches European politics at Barnard College in New York. 鈥淪ometimes breakaway groups remind established parties that there鈥檚 a problem, and they recalibrate,鈥� Professor Berman says. But such a recalibration would nonetheless put more political weight in the center.

Vying for the center ground

That is not, however, the way that traditional centrist parties in Germany are behaving.

The center-right 海角大神 Democrats (CDU) and center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have been hard to distinguish recently, wedded as they are in a 鈥済rand coalition鈥� government that ties them to the same policies.

Voters, dissatisfied with the lack of choice that the two mainstream parties are offering them, have been flocking at recent elections to more extreme groups, notably the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and to a lesser extent The Left party, which sits at the far left of German politics.

The CDU and the SPD are now seeking to stanch the flow with firmer policies appealing to their traditional supporters. The CDU is taking a less tolerant attitude to immigration than it did when Germany welcomed over 1 million migrants in 2015-16, while the SPD is proposing hikes in the minimum wage and in pensions.

As they harden their identities, the Greens are proving the big centrist success story.

Once dismissed as pacifist tree-huggers, the Greens have found political strength in centrism as they have moved to the middle with new policies while keeping their environmental principles intact. Greens are as firmly opposed to Russian aggression in Ukraine as anyone, support armed intervention abroad to defend human rights, and have pushed for more spending on infrastructure and education.

鈥淔rom the left, the Greens have moved to the center to make themselves attractive to CDU and SPD voters,鈥� says Gero Neugebauer, a politics professor at the Free University of Berlin.

The move has worked; the Greens are seen as reliable coalition partners by both the CDU and the SPD, and they are members of nine regional governments.

At the same time, a third of German voters say they sympathize with anti-establishment views. That trend clearly benefits the AfD and the Left party, but the Greens appear to have enough 鈥渁lternative鈥� street cred to profit as well. After all, populism is not an exclusively extremist phenomenon.

Centrism as populism

Take French President Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 successful 2017 campaign at the head of the brand new En Marche! (In Motion!)聽party, for example, which betrayed more than a hint of Donald Trump-style populism. Both Mr. Macron and Mr. Trump ran as outsiders against their respective political establishments and won.

Mr. Macron campaigned on a resolutely centrist platform based on a strong European Union, a social market economy, and a culture of compromise. Sometimes he described it as 鈥渘either left nor right鈥� and sometimes as 鈥渂oth left and right.鈥�

His platform clearly contributed to his victory, but it was not the only factor. 鈥淓ighteen months on, I realize that people did not necessarily vote for Macron because of his ideas; 鈥� they voted for change,鈥� acknowledges Delphine O, an En Marche! member of parliament.

鈥淢acron鈥檚 strength lay as much in who he was not as in who he was,鈥� says Professor Perrineau. He won because the French public was fed up with the two main parties 鈥� the Socialists on the left and the Republicans on the right 鈥� which had alternated in power for decades.

It is because voters have not yet seen the results of the changes in economic and social policy that Mr. Macron had promised that his government is facing so much social unrest, says Professor Berman.

鈥淗e said he would reinvigorate French capitalism and strengthen social protection,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut he cannot yet claim success on either part of his program.鈥�

That bodes ill for Macron鈥檚 brand of centrism. 鈥淚f European governments cannot reinvigorate their economies and also take care of those citizens who have fallen behind,鈥� she says, 鈥渢hat could be very dangerous for democracy.鈥�

鈥� Peter Grier in Washington, Clifford Coonan in Berlin, and Dina Kraft in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed reporting to this story.