With May鈥檚 monumental defeat, no end in sight for Brexit
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The result of聽Tuesday鈥檚 vote in Parliament on Prime Minister Theresa May鈥檚 terms of departure from the European Union was ultimately not a surprise. Her minority government is deeply divided over Brexit and Ms. May鈥檚 own leadership.
But the scale of defeat that her plan suffered in Parliament 鈥 an emphatic 432 against to 202 for 鈥 has brought new uncertainty to a process meant to be coming to an end in just over 70 days鈥 time.
It has even thrown the survival of May鈥檚 government into question; The opposition Labour Party immediately filed a no-confidence motion that will be voted on Wednesday. Whatever happens next, the deadline for Britain鈥檚 departure 鈥撀燤arch 29 at midnight 鈥撀爄s now certain to be extended or even shelved as members of Parliament seek to corral May into exploring alternatives to her deal, including a possible second referendum.
Why We Wrote This
The vote on Theresa May鈥檚 Brexit plan was perhaps the most important in Britain鈥檚 modern era. Parliament鈥檚 sweeping rejection almost assures that Brexit will require an extension beyond its March 29 deadline.
For now, Britain鈥檚 own statutes dictate an exit on March 29, with or without a formal agreement. To avoid a chaotic no-deal Brexit, Parliament will need to pass new legislation and to request an extension from the 27 other EU members that gives breathing space for British lawmakers.
鈥淚 think what we will see is an emphatic rejection of no-deal, and Parliament will then try to ensure that there is further time to work out whether an alternative deal is more acceptable,鈥 says Robert Hazell, professor of government and the constitution at King鈥檚 College London.
Even before Tuesday鈥檚 defeat, the largest in living memory, the timetable for an orderly Brexit was tight. To implement the agreement, a slew of domestic legislation has to pass both houses of Parliament before being signed into law. EU leaders have already signaled that a modest delay would be allowed if Parliament had agreed on the terms of departure and needed to tie up loose ends. But extending by more than a few months would be a bigger ask.
Over the past week, backbench MPs have worked across the aisle to pass amendments that tied May鈥檚 hands in the event of her deal being rejected. Some have called for Parliament to hold votes on what direction it wants to take on Brexit, with or without government assent.
But finding a consensus on that direction is fraught, not least because public opinion is also split, says John Curtice, a politics professor at the University of Strathclyde. Both May and her opposition counterpart, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, preside over splintered parties in which a pragmatic center is hard to locate. 鈥淚t鈥檚 perfectly clear that we鈥檙e not leaving on the 29th of March. But it鈥檚 very difficult to resolve. The country is very polarized,鈥 he says.
For pro-Brexit voters who simply want politicians to finish the job, Tuesday鈥檚 vote is likely to disappoint. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing from British public is Brexit fatigue. They just want the government to get on with it,鈥 says Alex de Ruyter, director of the Center for Brexit Studies at Birmingham City University.
A spokesman for May said that she expected to survive Wednesday鈥檚 no-confidence vote and would move to consult senior MPs on all sides about Parliament鈥檚 views on Brexit. Under an amendment passed last week, a move that angered pro-Brexit MPs, May has to report back to Parliament by Monday on her next move.
Asked if she would resign after such a humiliating defeat, the spokesman told reporters: 鈥淪he wants to deliver Brexit in the way that the people voted for.鈥
Before Tuesday鈥檚 vote, many had expected May to seek further concessions from European leaders that could make her agreement more acceptable to wavering MPs. In her final appeal to lawmakers before the vote, she insisted that the withdrawal agreement 鈥撀爐he legally binding treaty put to Parliament 鈥撀爓ould remain part of any orderly Brexit. Talk of going back to Brussels to draw up a new agreement was futile, she told the House. 鈥淣o such alternative deal exists.鈥
Among the sticking points for rebels in her own party has been the intra-Ireland backstop, a feature of the agreement that would keep Britain inside the EU customs union in order to prevent a hard border between Ireland, an EU member, and Northern Ireland. It only comes into effect if the two sides are unable to negotiate a new trade agreement by the end of 2020.
Labour鈥檚 leadership opposes May鈥檚 agreement and has repeatedly called for an election so that it can offer an alternative to voters. Mr. Corbyn rose to his feet after Tuesday鈥檚 vote to drive home his point. 鈥淭his government has lost the confidence of the House,鈥 he said.
However, Corbyn has been reluctant to push for a second referendum that could split his base. Should he fail to bring down May鈥檚 government via a parliamentary vote, pro-EU supporters are certain to step up the pressure on him.
At the same time, Labour MPs in pro-Leave seats will confront their own dilemma if another Brexit vote is held, says Helen Thompson, a professor of political economy at the University of Cambridge. Leave voters may object to the compromises that May has reached with EU negotiators, but they also want to make Brexit happen. 鈥淎t a certain point there are a number of Labour MPs with a difficult decision to make,鈥 she says.
While Parliament can pass laws and express its wishes, it can鈥檛 replace the government at the negotiating table. Should a cross-party bloc of MPs seek to change course, for example by asking the EU to delay Brexit, it would still need the government鈥檚 assent, says Dr. de Ruyter. And May has yet to change her negotiating stance toward Brexit, the issue that has defined her premiership ever since she took power in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.
鈥淭he EU doesn鈥檛 negotiate with Parliament,鈥 he says, 鈥渢hey negotiate with the government.鈥