Why strikes and poor polling aren't derailing Macron's reform plans
| Paris
Remy Pichon joined tens of thousands on the streets of France this week to protest President Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 labor reform. They opened the first front in a battle whose outcome could reshape the French economy, or keep things largely as they already are.
Mr. Pichon鈥檚 positioning is clear. 鈥淲e are here to protect a century of workers鈥� rights that we have earned,鈥� says the laboratory technician, who missed a day of pay to march down the tree-lined boulevards of Paris.
But if Pichon's rhetoric, and the sea of placards, pins, and posters, is a familiar scene, even the most fervent protesters aren鈥檛 sure if the fight will follow the conventional playbook.
The strikes that started Tuesday 鈥� and will continue later this month to oppose Mr. Macron鈥檚 attempt to make hiring and firing more flexible, a goal that鈥檚 eluded his predecessors 鈥� were smaller, and narrower in scope, than previous protests. And even as Macron鈥檚 popularity has waned 鈥� and perhaps because of it 鈥� he appears to be looking beyond public opinion to prove that he鈥檚 the one who can finally liberalize France鈥檚 economy.
鈥淚 really think Emmanuel Macron is going 鈥楾hatcher-style鈥� on this,鈥� says Thomas Gu茅nol茅, a professor of politics at Sciences Po in Paris. 鈥淭hat is why I think the social movement and political movement will defeat him only if they go for a long, tough mobilization.鈥�
Dr. Gu茅nol茅聽says all eyes need to stay focused on the street. 鈥淲ill it or will it not be on fire? That鈥檚 the only question,鈥� he says.
So far it is not. The front page of Wednesday鈥檚 Le Parisien read, 鈥淔irst round, Macron.鈥�
Fulfilling promises
Pierre Gattaz, head of France鈥檚 small and medium-sized business federation, told foreign journalists this summer that he expected strikes to be smaller because Macron is carrying out campaign promises made during presidential and subsequent legislative elections, where his party won a large majority.
In short, Macron promised to move fast on labor reform to spur investment and reduce unemployment that has stood above 9 percent for nearly a decade. 鈥淗e has been elected on a program that he explained for weeks and months,鈥� Mr. Gattaz says, 鈥渟o he has the legitimacy of the election.鈥�
Perhaps more crucially, he also negotiated for weeks with unions over the summer to come up with proposals that ultimately kept two of the three biggest unions off the street Tuesday and the labor movement divided. 鈥淚t puts the government in a better position,鈥� says Philippe Fr茅meaux a, columnist at Economic Alternatives news magazine.
The CGT, the hard-line union at the center of French resistance to labor reform, said that 60,000 marched in Paris 鈥� compared to 100,000 who came out in the spring of 2016 to protest labor reform under Fran莽ois Hollande.
Derek Doyle, an electrician and member of the largest union, CFDT, which didn鈥檛 formally join the strikes Tuesday, says he came to protest anyway because he is worried about Macron鈥檚 determination. 鈥淚t is harder with Macron, [his administration] wants to go fast,鈥� he says.
Macron鈥檚 approval rating slipped to about 40 percent over the summer, and he will be under pressure to show that he can effect change despite his fragile victory.
Although he won the most votes in the first round of elections in April, it represented only 24 percent of the electorate. Many of his second-round聽supporters chose him because they feared a win by National Front candidate Marine Le Pen.
Macron doesn鈥檛 seem deterred. He provoked controversy ahead of the protests by saying he wouldn鈥檛 cede ground to 鈥渟lackers.鈥� He later stood by his words, saying he was referring to those who continuously stand in the way of reform, but it heightened the sense that he is aloof and arrogant.
Potential for backlash
Macron is expected to push through the reform by decree later this month, while two more protests are planned. On Wednesday, French Prime Minister 脡douard Philippe said on TV that he was 鈥渓istening鈥� and 鈥減aying attention鈥� to the street. But, he added, 鈥渢he reform that we are putting in place was announced by the president at the time of his election.鈥�
The government of Macron, who campaigned as a candidate neither on the 鈥渞ight鈥� nor 鈥渓eft,鈥� says the intention is not to blaze a liberal path like Ms. Thatcher did in Britain. He campaigned to protect the vulnerable while unleashing the country鈥檚 economic potential.
Yet while that drew him support from the right and left, he faces challenges keeping both happy. His political party comprises members across the political spectrum. 鈥淗is majority in the National Assembly is made up of very different people,鈥� says Mr. Fr茅meaux. 鈥淚f there is too much dissent in the country about what he does, or promises, there may be some division within his majority.鈥�
Pichon, the protester, dismisses the 鈥渃entrist鈥� agenda on offer. 鈥淗e鈥檚 on the side of the bosses.鈥�
鈥淲hy is it not possible to maintain our rights when we had them after World War II when the country was in ruins?鈥� he asks. 鈥淭here are no wars, no epidemics, and the rich have never been richer. If the people don鈥檛 resist, it鈥檒l never stop.鈥�
He admits this week has so far not been a 鈥渟ocial explosion,鈥� but says he believes it will take time to foment. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a battle of wills,鈥� he says.
