海角大神

Last week鈥檚 shock election results, robbing Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May of a parliamentary majority and much of her authority just as she starts negotiating Britain鈥檚 historic withdrawal from the European Union, have thrown the country into turmoil.

Her failed election gamble will almost certainly force Ms. May to back away from the controversial 鈥渃lean break鈥� from Brussels that she has sought, with all its attendant economic risks. The opposition Labour Party too is at sixes and sevens on its Brexit policy, with senior leaders contradicting each other on critical aspects.

That could, perhaps, usher in a broad compromise on the most divisive issue facing the nation, and pave a more moderate exit route that would leave some ties to Europe intact. Top Conservatives are already mooting the prospects of an all-party commission to set Brexit policy that would find common ground, and present Britain鈥檚 EU partners with a stable and accountable negotiating team armed with a strong mandate.

For the moment such an understanding seems a distant prospect. Indeed, the government has given few signs of how it plans to tackle the momentous Brexit negotiations beyond saying that it will not even be ready to start them, as had been planned, next Monday.

鈥淚t is shocking,鈥� says one senior European diplomat here. 鈥淭he government does not seem to have the shadow of an idea of what it wants.鈥�

The Brexit election, sans Brexit

Nearly a year after Britons voted 52 percent to 48 percent to withdraw from the EU, there is still no plan for what kind of withdrawal London should seek, nor is there any consensus on the matter among the political parties, in Parliament or in the country.

This was not the way it was meant to be. May called the snap election, she said, to give her a solid mandate to negotiate the 鈥渉ard Brexit鈥� that she had advocated ever since the referendum. The increased majority that the opinion polls had predicted, she said, would strengthen her hand against Britain鈥檚 EU partners.

Instead, British voters sent a confused message, forcing the Conservatives to negotiate an ad hoc deal, still being worked out, with a small Northern Irish party to secure a wafer-thin parliamentary majority.

The message was confused partly because Brexit actually occupied little campaign time. Since both major parties are split on the question, neither wanted to go into much detail for fear of alienating potential voters. Nor is the European Union a matter of burning importance to most British voters, who are more concerned with the effects of the government鈥檚 austerity policies on health care and education.

But the election results revealed sharp splits in British society; most notably, young people turned out in unexpected numbers to vote for the Labour Party and its unusually radical left-wing manifesto. Polls found that they were overwhelmingly against Brexit, while their parents tilted toward leaving the EU.

A similar divide was visible on the map. Though the English Conservative Party lost seats in Parliament, the Scottish Conservatives gained 12 seats. It was no coincidence that the Scottish party leader, Ruth Davidson, like most of her fellow candidates, campaigned during last year鈥檚 referendum battle to remain in the EU.

Up in the air

The weakness of the electorate鈥檚 enthusiasm for May 鈥� whatever motivated it 鈥� has had a devastating effect on her plans for Britain鈥檚 future relationship with the EU.

May has staked out an uncompromising policy of 鈥渉ard Brexit,鈥� arguing that 鈥渘o deal is better than a bad deal.鈥� She has threatened to crash out of the EU in a disorderly departure if it came to that, which alarms British business.

That approach is no longer tenable. Conservative members of Parliament who favor a 鈥渟oft Brexit鈥� that maintains as many economic links as possible have been emboldened by the recent election results and are expected to start speaking up.

鈥淭he government can鈥檛 maintain its Brexit position now,鈥� says Hugo Dixon, editor of InFacts, a pro-European website. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 have the numbers in Parliament to drive it through any more.鈥�

Former party leader William Hague argued in published in Tuesday鈥檚 Daily Telegraph newspaper 鈥� the unofficial house organ of the Conservative party 鈥� that 鈥渁 change both of style and of substance鈥� is called for and that the government 鈥渉as an opportunity and a duty to tackle intractable issues in new ways,鈥� such as by convening an all-party commission to agree on a Brexit strategy.

Ms. Davidson, meanwhile, has called for 鈥渁n open Brexit, not a closed one,鈥� that should be worked out with other political forces.

May鈥檚 core dilemma, however, is that the ruling Conservative Party remains profoundly split on the issue of Britain鈥檚 EU membership. 鈥淭he more May moves to the middle, the more the hardliners will squawk,鈥� Mr. Dixon points out.

鈥淲ith her party divided and no majority in Parliament, May will run the constant risk of one side or another rebelling,鈥� predicts Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. 鈥淚t is difficult to see how she can pursue any Brexit in these circumstances.鈥�

'A great big gap in the middle'

Fearful of such deadlock, some Conservative cabinet members are reported to be in secret talks with Labour Party leaders in a bid to construct a common negotiating position. But aside from the fact that to do so they would have to outflank their powerful Euroskeptic wing, and the fact that Labour鈥檚 position is vague, 鈥測ou have to wonder why Labour should help the Conservatives,鈥� points out Mr. Tilford.

鈥淚t may be unfortunate from the country鈥檚 point of view, but it is in Labour鈥檚 interest to let the government stew,鈥� he adds.

Divisions in the political parties reflect the broader splits in society. Former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, a pro-European Liberal Democrat who lost his parliamentary seat last Thursday, warned in his concession speech that 鈥渨e will not pick our way through the very difficult times that our country faces 鈥� if MPs simply seek to amplify what divides them."

鈥淲e must try to reach out to each other, to try and find common ground if we are to heal the profound divisions,鈥� he urged.

That would require a return to traditional British politics, in which parties of both left and right have generally sought to govern from the center. More recently, however, a clear ideological split has seen the Conservative Party espouse right-wing English nationalism and the Labour Party move further to the left than it has been for decades.

鈥淭here's a great big gap in the middle,鈥� says Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Tony Blair. 鈥淭hat gap will be filled 鈥� nature abhors a vacuum 鈥� but you need someone charismatic in the center who brings people together,鈥� someone like new French President Emmanuel Macron.

There is no obvious Macron lookalike on the British political scene at the moment, he acknowledges. 鈥淭here will be a healing,鈥� he predicts. 鈥淚t will just take a bit of time.鈥�