海角大神

When the United States closed the Keflavik Naval Air Station in聽Iceland in 2006, military analysts in both nations were stunned.

While a menacing Russian agenda 鈥� the genesis of the base in 1951 鈥撀爏eemed remote in the aftermath of the cold war, Iceland was still聽viewed as a gem of a monitoring post.

Now, the US is giving its strategic value a fresh appraisal.

Last month, the Pentagon allocated $21.4 million in its 2017 fiscal聽budget to renew hanger facilities and restore infrastructure at the聽base. The planned upgrades will pave the way for basing P-8 Poseidon聽reconnaissance planes there. The submarine-hunting P-8s will help patrol the North Atlantic 鈥� and聽serve as a counterbalance to Russia's growing military presence in the聽region.

"Having eyes and ears in Iceland brings tremendous strategic value and聽provides a listening post for the US and NATO allies in terms of聽tracking Russian movement, especially in the Arctic," says Carl聽Hvenmark Nilsson, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and聽International Studies in Washington.

Mr. Nilsson says Moscow's revanchist foreign policy, as seen in Ukraine, helps explain its intensified military activity聽in the North Atlantic and Arctic.聽Russia has conducted three major military exercises in the region in the past three years: They include an operational-strategic exercise of more than 100,000 soldiers in 2014 and a snap military drill last March that was made up of 45,000 servicemen, 15 submarines, and 41 warships 鈥渄isplaying full combat readiness," says Nilsson.

Russia's reemerging threat

Iceland's geography has been likened to an aircraft carrier in the聽middle of the Atlantic. US Navy Capt. Sean Liedman, a military fellow聽at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the country's location聽midway between the US and Europe makes it well suited as a support聽stop.

Indeed, Iceland has been a stronghold for military strategists since聽World War II, when Allied forces used it to track German submarines in聽waters stretching from Greenland to Britain.

NATO members, including the US,聽signed a bilateral agreement聽with Iceland in 1951 to operate the base.聽It became crucial for tracking Soviet submarines that were easier to detect as they navigated narrow underwater recesses off Iceland.聽

At its peak during the cold war, about 5,000 US Navy and Air Force personnel and their families were stationed at聽Keflavik.

But in 2006, the Pentagon announced it would close the base as its聽focus shifted to Iraq and Afghanistan. At the time, Russian aggression聽in the North Atlantic seemed remote.

The announcement shocked Icelanders and military analysts alike. One聽Icelandic official described the sudden聽departure as leaving "bruises and scars." Many viewed it as peremptory.聽Still, the closure didn't leave Iceland 鈥� which has a small coast聽guard but no standing army 鈥� defenseless. Under a 1951 defense聽agreement, the US and other NATO nations share duties to defend it.

'Money well spent'

Today, Russia's growing military presence in the North Atlantic also has US聽defense experts worried about the security of underwater telecommunication cables. Ret. Navy Capt. Gerry Hendrix, a defense聽specialist at the Center for a New American Security in Washington who says the US should never have reduced its presence in Iceland,聽warns that interference by Russian submarines could be detrimental to聽countries on both sides of the Atlantic.

Then there are the trade, safety, and environmental issues surrounding聽Iceland's geopolitics. Iceland is a NATO member, and聽it backs Western sanctions against Russia. On the other hand, Russia聽is an important buyer of Icelandic seafood, one of the country's top聽exports.

John Higginbotham, a senior fellow at Canada's Centre for聽International Governance Innovation, says the Pentagon's announcement聽to upgrade 鈥� but not fully reopen 鈥� the Keflavik base suggests that聽the US "obviously didn't want to be provocative but it does add to聽their capacity."

In a statement released earlier this month, Iceland's Ministry for Foreign聽Affairs underscored that there are no talks between the US and Iceland聽to permanently station American troops at Keflavik. Yet the聽statement did say that "there have been discussions on the possibility聽of increased presence of US and other NATO Allies in the North聽Atlantic and in Iceland" based on "mutual defense commitments."

Nilsson says reestablishing a presence in Iceland "is money very well聽spent for NATO and for the US Navy."

"It will also send a very clear message to the Kremlin that it will be聽a measure from NATO to deter Russia from further intrusion of聽international water," he adds.