If not Russia, who will buy French warships?
| Paris
For sale: two French-built helicopter carriers, tested by Russians. Buy now for only 1.2 billion euros. Shipping extra.
Tensions between the West and聽Russia聽over聽Ukraine聽have blocked a deal in which聽Moscow聽was to buy the ships, leaving聽Paris聽trying to negotiate a face-saving compromise and to work out what to do with two unwanted warships.
"There are three possibilities: deliver the boats to聽Russia, sell them to someone else or destroy them," said a source close to the matter.
It is an embarrassment that is not of French President聽Francois Hollande's making. The deal stems from his predecessor聽Nicolas Sarkozy's decision in 2011 to make the West's first major foreign arms sale to聽Russia聽since the fall of the Soviet Union.
But it will be difficult for Hollande politically and underlines the difficulty for聽France聽to reconcile its ambitions as a global arms supplier - a sector on which thousands of French jobs depend - with commitments to NATO allies.
It may also be very costly.
At present the delivery of the ships remains indefinitely suspended rather than formally canceled. But even Russian officials say now that they are not interested in taking the Mistral-class carriers.
Moreover聽France's NATO allies, notably the聽United States聽and聽Poland聽- with whom聽Paris聽is negotiating 6 billion euros of defense deals - would be outraged if聽France聽tried to get the deal back on track with the crisis in聽Ukraine聽far from resolved.
That leaves the Russians demanding not only a full refund but also the penalties that go for pulling the deal.
"That聽Russia聽won't take them (the ships) - that's a fait accompli,"聽Oleg Bochkaryov, deputy head of聽Russia's Military Industrial Commission, told daily聽Kommersant聽last week. "There is only one discussion going on now: the amount of money that should be returned to聽Russia."
Sink or sell?
The first carrier, the Vladivostok, had been due for delivery in 2014; the second, named Sebastopol after Crimea's crucial seaport, was supposed to be delivered by 2016.
Russia聽and French sources say聽Moscow聽wants 1.163 billion euros ($1.29 billion) which includes what it has already disbursed - about 800 million euros - plus compensation for costs incurred for the purchase of equipment and training of sailors.
France's special envoy聽Louis Gautier, who has been shuttling between the two capitals since end-March, has offered just 785 million euros, according to Russian media citing officials who also described the offer as "unacceptable."
Gautier has asked聽Russia聽to either contribute to the cost of dismantling them or allow聽France聽to sell the Mistrals to another country.聽Canada聽and聽Singapore聽have been mooted, as has聽Egypt聽which has just bought French fighter jets and naval frigates.
Yet senior defense ministry official聽Yury Yakubov, quoted by Interfax news agency, argued they could not be sold on because the carriers were built to specific聽Russian navy聽requirements and therefore it was a "matter of state security."
That may turn out to be just a bargaining position. But even if聽Russia聽relents, there would be a cost to聽France.
For one thing, it is already costing 5 million euros a month to maintain them at their current port on the Atlantic.
The Mistral is known as the聽Swiss army聽knife of the French navy for its versatility. But DCNS, the 65-percent state-owned manufacturer, nonetheless estimates any adaptation for another country would cost hundreds of millions of euros - and it would seek compensation.
An intriguing outside bet might involve聽China.
Amid a warming of聽Paris-Beijing聽ties under Hollande, the Dixmude - another Mistral-class vessel - attracted speculation when it docked in聽Shanghai聽earlier this month for a week.
But for now, analysts suggest the geopolitical context is just too dicey to contemplate a sale to聽China.
With growing tensions in the聽South China Sea,聽France聽is not seen willing to risk alienating聽Japan, with which it has just signed a defense cooperation deal, let alone suffer the displeasure that such a move would incur in Washington.
Said General聽海角大神 Quesnot, chief military adviser to Hollande's mentor, the late president聽Francois Mitterrand: "The cheapest thing would be to sink them."
($1 = 0.8986 euros)
(Additional reporting by聽Cyril Altmeyer聽and Gabriela Baczynska in聽Moscow; editing by Mark John/Jeremy Gaunt)
