From the Monitor archives: After the fall of the Berlin Wall, what's next?
This article originally appeared in the Nov. 13, 1989, edition of 海角大神.
West鈥檚 Joy at Changes In East Germany Tinged With Caution
Surprise at open border replaced by concerns about stability and changing role of alliances
WASHINGTON 鈥� In the end the Berlin Wall could not contain the population it was meant to pen up.
The force of East Germans could find in the Iron Curtain has dismantled the wall as surely as if refugees had marched on it in the night with hammers and chisels, leaving it smaller each morning.
The opening of the East Ger颅man frontier is a reminder that police states are not forever, and that even repressive governments must worry about maintaining le颅gitimacy in the eyes of the gov颅erned. But the act is a symbol, not a solution. East German leaders must likely enact further political and economic reforms to stop the outward rush of citizens.
The speed with which East Germany has spun into turmoil has stunned the West, even after the examples of Poland and Hun颅gary. A sense of caution, and wor颅ry about the long-term issue of German reunification, is keeping many officials and analysts in the US from being too euphoric.
鈥淚t is in nobody鈥檚 interest that East Germany collapse prema颅turely,鈥� says Ronald Asmus, a RAND Corporation analyst.
鈥� West Germany does not want to be faced with a larger refugee problem than it already has. Western experts figure about 1.4 million of East Germany鈥檚 16 million people might flee if given a chance, and West German offi颅cials have been pointedly saying many of these people might be better off if they stayed home.
鈥� The Soviet Union does not want to see a sudden hole on the northwestern frontier of its de颅fenses. Soviet leader Mikhail Gor颅bachev says he would accept a pluralist East Germany 鈥� but only if it remained a member of the Warsaw Pact. The question of what happens to the 380,000 So颅viet soldiers in East Germany is crucial.
鈥� The United States does not want the Soviet Union to get nervous and cool improving rela颅tions. In recent months the White House has reassured the Soviets that US policy in Eastern Europe is not designed to threaten their security. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a very positive interplay鈥� between the su颅perpowers, a US official says.
News about the dramatic East German move raced through Washington last Thursday with a rapidity unmatched by the San Francisco earthquake.
When President Bush fielded questions on the subject, the issue quickly became not the move it颅self, but whether Bush was ex颅cited. 鈥淭he fact that I鈥檓 not bub颅bling over ... maybe it鈥檚 getting along toward evening because I feel very good about it,鈥� he said.
Throughout the dramatic Eastern European fall, there鈥檚 been frustration in Washington about being on the sidelines. US officials say over and over that there is only so much they can do to influence the situation.
The abolition of travel restric颅tions carried with a hint of des颅peration on the part of new East German leader Egon Krenz. He seemed to be offering East Ger颅mans a chance to think, and calm颅ly assess their situation.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the only way they can maintain their hold on power,鈥� says Hannah Decker, a University of Houston professor of German history. But dramatic as the ges颅ture is, it can only be a short-term solution to Mr. Krenz鈥檚 problems. Unless coupled with further re颅forms it is unlikely to stem the emigrant tide, US analysts say.
Krenz has called in a general way for such reforms as freedom of assembly and the press, and eventual elections. A conference of the East German Communist Party is slated for mid-December.
Free elections could be the key to quieting dissent, but it is un颅clear whether Krenz is committed to them. The opportunity to choose leaders might give East Germans an incentive to stay and rebuild. 鈥淭he next step has to be real political change, real plural颅ism,鈥� says David Gress, a Hoover Institution scholar.
For Western nations, the East German government鈥檚 moves to颅ward change represent a clear moral victory. But there is under颅lying concern that the situation could spiral out of control.
West Germany used to take up to two years to educate refugees from the East in the ways of a free society, but with 225,000 East Germans arriving this year such readjustment is no longer possi颅ble. Integration of those already there will be a strain.
To the US, stability in this con颅text means a continued standoff between the military alliances of the Warsaw Pact and NATO. The East German situation could threaten this stability in two ways.
In the first, a newly pluralist East Germany could attempt to declare itself neutral. This could be unacceptable to the USSR. East Germany blocks the historic western approach to Russia, and is thus important militarily.
In the second, West Germany might declare itself neutral at the cost of long-sought reunification. A new mini-superpower would be created, one both West and East may view with unease.
The reunification question re颅mains the central German prob颅lem. There are many ways of uniting short of one government 鈥� a loose confederation, perhaps, or a sort of economic union.
"Just because things are exciting we should not jump to conclusions,鈥� says Helga Welsh, a University of South Carolina Ger颅man policy expert. 鈥淭his is going to be a long process.鈥�听
