France headed toward undivided leftist government
| Paris
President Fran莽ois Hollande and the French left took Round 1 yesterday of parliamentary elections that are being closely watched as harbingers of Europe鈥檚 political direction at a time of economic crisis.
Most of the individual seats still need to be won in a June 17 runoff. But leftist parties enter those contests with the overall best showing, taking 46 percent of French voters, and setting up Mr. Hollande and his Socialists聽鈥撀爓ho won 36 percent 鈥撀爁or a majority needed for a free hand and an undivided government.聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very, very good result for the Socialists and Fran莽ois Hollande,鈥� says Arun Kapil of Catholic University in Paris. 鈥淏ut we will see on June 17. I think the Socialists are on track to get a majority on their own.鈥�
Six of Hollande鈥檚 24 declared cabinet ministers, including Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, were elected outright yesterday. But as of this morning鈥檚 tally, only about 60 seats of the 577-seat body were decided after the lowest voter turnout (57 percent) since Charles de Gaulle took office in the 1960s.
Under the election rules, a candidate must receive an outright majority of votes to win in Round 1. Otherwise, all candidates who garner more than 12.5 percent of the vote advance to a runoff.
Winning a clear majority on June 17 would enable Hollande to consolidate power and give heft to programs expected to combine growth with the tough and increasingly controversial austerity-only policies that have dominated Europe鈥檚 remedy for its economic crisis and that are favored by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
While characterized by some foreign media as a 鈥渢ax and spend鈥� liberal, Hollande is in fact聽a pragmatist who pledges a balanced budget by 2017 and a 3 percent budget deficit next year. The French right is skeptical he can do so.
Like most European politicians in an age of austerity, Hollande's hand is severely constrained. So far, he has implemented symbolic measures such as cutting his and his ministers' salaries by 30 percent. He has tinkered with social fairness policies: He did not change the pension reforms of Mr. Sarkozy that moved France's generous retirement age from 60 to 62; but he added a caveat allowing those beginning work at age 18 to retire at 60, and to allow females to count part of their pregnancy months.聽
But while French voters gave Hollande a boost, he has not yet delivered a knockout blow to the political right.聽 The main right party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy took 27 percent to bring the conservative majority to a 34 percent total.
鈥淭here was no 鈥榩ink landslide,鈥欌�� said former Prime Minister Fran莽ois Fillon, referring to the vote on the left.
鈥淲ithout a majority, no laws will be passed,鈥� warned Prime Minister Ayrault after last night鈥檚 tally.
The elections appear set to give the French far right party of Marine Le Pen, which is anti-Europe and anti-Islam, its first seats in decades. Ms. Le Pen鈥檚 National Front, which is now the No. 3 party in France, got 13.6 percent. 聽But in a clear blow to Le Pen, the main French right party headed until May by Nicolas Sarkozy has not been willing to align itself with her, dashing her hopes for a historic realignment.
However, Le Pen trounced far-left figure Jean-Luc M茅lenchon in Henin-Beaumont, a distressed former mining region, in what Mr. Melenchon had hoped would be a comeuppance for her. Melenchon had made waves this spring as a dynamic new voice on the far nationalist left. But after carpetbagging up in the French north, his nose was bloodied by Le Pen, who scored 42 percent to his 21 percent.
Le Pen鈥檚 party may score three seats. In Paris today, speculation has it that one of those seats would be from the Le Pen clan: Marion Marechal-Le Pen, Ms. Le Pen鈥檚 niece and granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party founder.
In an unexpected development, S茅gol猫ne Royal, the Socialist Party nominee in 2007 and the former partner of Hollande, could well lose her seat after deciding to run in a region that has other popular long-time Socialists. Le Parisian today commented on a campaign of 鈥淪aving Private Royal,鈥� after party officials have tried to ban other candidates from that seat.
