海角大神

His name is not on the ballot, but Indonesia鈥檚 wildly popular President Joko Widodo, or 鈥淛okowi,鈥� looms large over the Feb. 14 election in the world鈥檚 third-largest democracy, and nowhere more than in his home province of Central Java.

Campaign posters plastered along the riverside in provincial capital Semarang proclaim 鈥淛okowi Chooses Gerindra鈥� 鈥� a reference not to the president鈥檚 own political party but that of his erstwhile rival, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.

Jokowi hasn鈥檛 officially endorsed anyone in the race to succeed him, but his son鈥檚 status as Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 running mate is widely presumed as a presidential seal of approval.

After serving the maximum two terms, Jokowi will step down this October, but with an 80% approval rating he holds huge sway over Indonesia鈥檚 205 million voters.

Mr. Prabowo, who lost to Jokowi in the last two presidential elections, holds a commanding lead this time, with analysts crediting perceived backing by the incumbent 鈥� a phenomenon some call 鈥渢he Jokowi effect.鈥�

The effect is particularly pronounced in Central Java, where former Governor Ganjar Pranowo 鈥� once seen as Jokowi鈥檚 natural successor 鈥� has all but lost his home advantage.

The turning point came when Mr. Prabowo added Jokowi鈥檚 son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to his ticket, said Kennedy Muslim, an analyst from the polling institute Indikator Politik.

鈥淭hat single consequential maneuver has paid off handsomely in the polls for the last three months in boosting Prabowo鈥檚 support,鈥� Mr. Muslim said, describing a 鈥渄rastic migration of Jokowi loyalists.鈥�

It鈥檚 unclear if Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 double-digit lead over Mr. Ganjar and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan will deliver the more than 50% of votes needed to avoid a runoff, though recent polls put him in a strong position.

A year ago, the election frontrunner was the photogenic Mr. Ganjar 鈥� a fellow member of Jokowi鈥檚 Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) hoping to mirror his path from hard-working provincial chief to the leader of Southeast Asia鈥檚 biggest economy.

But in recent months, that picture radically altered as Jokowi appeared to shift closer to Mr. Prabowo amid reports of a rift between the president and PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Family ties over party lines

Since Mr. Prabowo controversially named Jokowi鈥檚 son as his running mate in October, Mr. Ganjar鈥檚 ratings in the Javanese heartland have plunged 30 points to 38% from 68%, while Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 popularity has now eclipsed his.

鈥淭he sudden collapse of Ganjar鈥檚 poll numbers, even in Central Java and East Java, is also because of this 鈥楯okowi effect鈥�,鈥� said Mr. Muslim. 鈥淒emonstrating how powerful and consequential Jokowi鈥檚 influence is 鈥� the ultimate kingmaker.鈥�

鈥淏lood is thicker than political parties,鈥� said Sudaryono, the head of Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 party in Central Java.

Agus, who runs a market stall in Semarang, said: 鈥淲hen people see Gibran, they see Jokowi. If Gibran wasn鈥檛 there, Prabowo would drop for sure.鈥�

Mr. Prabowo has undeniably run a savvy campaign, swapping former nationalistic tirades for cute dances and adopting the nickname 鈥済emoy,鈥� meaning cute and cuddly.

At a carnival-like campaign event in Tegal, also in Central Java, complete with live music, door prizes, and bouncy castles, hundreds of fans in baby-blue shirts featuring Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 AI avatar braved the piercing heat to attend.

鈥淚 like his free food for school children program,鈥� said Isnaeni, a mother of two. 鈥淧rabowo loves the people.鈥�

Nevertheless, Jokowi鈥檚 implicit support has been crucial, said analyst Kevin O鈥橰ourke.

鈥淛okowi has been a gigantic factor. Mostly it鈥檚 just about him. And he has a formula that makes him popular: low inflation, social service spending, and infrastructure development, and a disposition that people like,鈥� he said.

Social assistance 鈥撀爋r vote-buying?

Observers have pointed to a worrying democratic backslide in Indonesia, but Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 alleged dark past and criticism of dynastic politics appear to matter little at the grassroots, where millions identify with Jokowi鈥檚 humble persona and attention to ordinary Indonesians.

When the constitutional court, at the time headed by the president鈥檚 brother-in-law, changed the age eligibility rules that enabled Mr. Gibran to run for vice president, an online outcry did not trigger mass street protests.

In the past month, Jokowi has traveled to Central Java at least three times to distribute fertilizer, rice, and cash assistance, raising questions about his declared neutrality.

鈥淚t鈥檚 pork barrelling,鈥� said Nur Hidayat Sardini, a lecturer at Semarang鈥檚 Dipenogoro University. 鈥淭he social assistance has been massive.鈥�

The impact on Mr. Ganjar鈥檚 campaign, lamented PDI-P鈥檚 Bambang Wuryanto, has been like 鈥渁 big bomb.鈥�

The government has denied that any one candidate benefits from the social assistance program. The president鈥檚 office has not responded to questions about the neutrality complaints.

Sudaryono, from Mr. Prabowo鈥檚 party, said the task was to 鈥渃onvert the love into votes鈥� adding that many Indonesians were drawn to the defense minister鈥檚 pledge of 鈥渃ontinuity鈥� of Jokowi鈥檚 policies.

But analysts say such continuity is far from guaranteed.

鈥淭he vast bulk of power resides with the office of the president,鈥� said Mr. O鈥橰ourke. 鈥淎nd on October 20 that will change, and Widodo will be out of power.鈥�

This story was reported by Reuters, with contributions by聽Ananda Teresia.