In Maldives presidential election, China and India are on the ballot
| New Delhi
When Maldivians head to the polls this weekend, they鈥檒l vote for聽either incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih or Mohamed Muizzu, mayor of the capital, Mal茅. But the contest might as well be between India and China.听
With hundreds of islands famous for white-sand beaches and luxury resorts, the Maldives sits along critical shipping corridors in the heart of the Indian Ocean. The archipelago鈥檚 strategic location makes it 鈥渁n integral part of a free and open Indo-Pacific region,鈥� according to the U.S. State Department, as well as a battleground for the heated rivalry between Asia鈥檚 rising superpowers.听
For years, Delhi and Beijing have been vying for influence in the Maldives鈥� atolls. The current administration has strongly favored India, but many Maldivians worry about Indian military presence on their shores, as well as mounting foreign debt. Opposition leader Dr. Muizzu, whose conservative coalition opposes the growing security relationship with India, took a surprise lead over Mr. Solih in the first round of elections earlier this month, though neither candidate secured enough votes to win outright.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onIn the Maldives, voters have an opportunity to elect either a pro-China or pro-India president. Whoever wins, the future administration will need to balance foreign relations with Maldivians鈥� expectations of sovereignty.
As voters return for the Sept. 30 runoff, it鈥檚 clear that anti-India sentiment has bolstered the challenger, and with him, the prospects for Maldives-China relations. Beijing and Delhi are watching the election closely, viewing it as a referendum on the archipelago鈥檚 foreign policy goals. For Maldivians, it represents a delicate balancing act with the country鈥檚 sovereignty on the line.
鈥淢aldivians take a lot of pride in their sovereignty, even if it is a small country,鈥� says Azim Zahir, an international relations lecturer at the University of Western Australia. An opposition victory would have 鈥渟erious foreign relations implications,鈥� including a 鈥渓ikely row between Mal茅 and New Delhi,鈥� though he notes that no government would attempt to completely sever India ties.听
Ally shuffle
India is a 鈥渢raditional friend of the Maldives,鈥� says Amit Ranjan, an expert in South Asian politics and research fellow at the National University of Singapore. As neighbors, they share deep ethnic and linguistic links, and India was among the first to establish diplomatic relations with the Maldives when the island nation gained independence more than 50 years ago.
Ties flourished under Mohamed Nasheed, the country鈥檚 first democratically elected president, until opponents accused him of being beholden to Delhi. When Abdulla Yameen came to power in 2013, he reined in Indian influence and encouraged Chinese investment. Amid a flurry of infrastructure projects 鈥� including the country鈥檚 first inter-island bridge, the $200 million China-Maldives Friendship Bridge 鈥� the Maldives racked up a to Beijing, even by conservative estimates. That鈥檚 about a fourth of the country鈥檚 gross domestic product.听
Mr. Solih鈥檚 victory in 2018 saw the Maldives scale back Chinese contracts and embrace an 鈥淚ndia First鈥� policy, vowing to prioritize relations with its immediate neighbor. But now, as India positions itself as China鈥檚 geopolitical competitor, the pendulum of public sentiment appears to be swinging again.听
鈥淚ndia First鈥� or 鈥淚ndia Out鈥�?
There are about 75 Indian defense personnel stationed in the Maldives 鈥� a small figure, even for a nation of 520,000. Yet their presence 鈥� and the lack of transparency surrounding their deployment 鈥� makes locals like Aishath Liusha uncomfortable.听
鈥淢aldivians are always very close to India,鈥� says the law student, who fondly remembers growing up in Mal茅 with Indian teachers and nurses. But lately, she adds, 鈥渨e are looking at Indians as a threat.鈥澛�
Ms. Liusha is also worried about the Maldives鈥� growing debt to India, which after several housing and infrastructure projects and an influx of pandemic aid, now .听
Proponents of the opposition鈥檚 鈥淚ndia Out鈥� campaign accuse the current government of 鈥渟elling off鈥� the Maldives to India. Critics say such claims are exaggerated, and argue that the opposition has encouraged a paranoid, xenophobic view of India.
Hamdhan Shakeel, a senator with the Progressive Party of Maldives, says that鈥檚 not the goal. To him, it鈥檚 an issue of balance.
鈥淚ndia will always remain as the closest partner to the Maldives. However, at the same time we must also acknowledge China as a close partner,鈥� he says via WhatsApp. 鈥淭o say that one is more important than the other is to disservice their contributions to the development of Maldives.鈥澛�
He says the opposition coalition 鈥渨ill maintain an 鈥業ndia first鈥� policy in terms of regional affairs, but not 鈥業ndia only鈥� policy as currently practiced.鈥�
Exacerbating this debate over foreign influence, according to Dr. Ranjan, is the escalating power struggle between India and China, which are currently locked in a tense border standoff. While resource-rich nations like Saudi Arabia can navigate tensions and safeguard their sovereignty more easily, he says countries like the Maldives and Nepal are feeling the pressure to pick a side.
鈥淲hen you are a small country, it is very difficult for you to manage this balancing thing for a long time,鈥� says Dr. Ranjan.
Election prospects
Since the Sept. 9 vote, the Maldives has seen a surge in voter re-registration, which some interpret as a favorable sign for the ruling party. The opposition has urged election watchers to investigate.
As both candidates attempt to muster late-game support, former President Nasheed has emerged as a possible kingmaker. Mr. Nasheed, who was seen as being too close to Delhi during his tenure, has been critical of Mr. Solih and even hinted at endorsing the pro-China Dr. Muizzu. If that happens, Dr. Ranjan says Mr. Nasheed 鈥渕ay become a bridge鈥� between India and the new government formed by the opposition.
Former President Yameen, who jailed political rivals and curtailed freedom of speech, has already thrown his weight behind Dr. Muizzu, giving some undecided voters pause. Ms. Liusha worries about the return of authoritarian practices, but Mr. Solih has also failed to deliver on his campaign promise of weeding out corruption.
When it comes to presidential candidates, 鈥渨e are in a situation where we have to go for a lesser evil,鈥� says Ms. Liusha.
