海角大神

If Afghanistan鈥檚 noisy election rallies are any indication, Afghans are set to elect a new president this week with a level of enthusiasm that is very likely to overcome Taliban efforts to disrupt the vote.

From the steep stone mountain slopes that define the northern Panjshir Valley to Kabul's Ghazi stadium, where the Taliban once conducted public executions, candidates have strained their voices, glad-handed, and given out free lunches to screaming supporters in their bid to succeed President Hamid Karzai. On an often dangerous campaign trail, they are peddling peace and progress for Afghanistan, a nation that has not seen enough of either since US forces ousted the Taliban in 2001, despite tens of billions of dollars in Western assistance.

A record 352,000 security personnel will be deployed during the election, scheduled for Saturday.聽But the risk of violence is still there: Afghan security forces today said they had seized more than 22 tons of explosives hidden in 450 bags in a northern province.聽The resurgent Taliban have mounted聽four high-profile attacks in Kabul in the past two weeks.

Pressure is also high in some rural provinces. In the northern Sar-e Pul Province, for example, the Taliban abducted a provincial council candidate on Sunday night. In northern Kunduz, the Taliban have been posting 鈥渘ight letters鈥� warning that they will cut off the ink-stained fingers of voters and lace routes to polling stations with improved explosive devices (IEDs). Fears rose further yesterday, when 14 members of a police commander's family were killed by an IED in one village; in another, an IED killed the head of the criminal investigation department.

Despite fears of Taliban violence, however, Afghan voters have lined up, sometimes before dawn, to register, and rallies have attracted thousands for a vote that will mark Afghanistan's first democratic transfer of power and serve as a key test for continued Western aid.

Defying the danger

鈥淲hat should be the response from the public? Defy the [Taliban] message by participation,鈥� Abdullah Abdullah, a frontrunner from the Panshir Valley, told the Monitor in an interview after addressing thousands of supporters in his home province on Monday, alongside a snow-fed river.

He says he holds himself to the same standard of danger. When Dr. Abdullah鈥檚 motorcade arrived at the rally, for example, it was swarmed in chaotic scenes of jubilation that are among the riskiest moments for all candidates.

鈥淲asn鈥檛 there a possibility of a suicide [bomber]?鈥� asks Abdullah, a former foreign minister who ran for president in 2009 but lost in that fraud-tainted vote. He had also addressed a large rally the day before in Kandahar, a former Taliban stronghold in the south. 鈥淏ut the people know there is a risk, the people take the risk.鈥�

Afghan voters are eager, says Abdullah, to address an 鈥渁bsolute鈥� weakness of leadership that has allowed a Taliban resurgence and threat of continued insecurity after US and NATO forces largely withdraw later this year. By way of example, he points to a recent rally in Kunduz, just ahead of which, he says, at least five of his supporters were killed by a Taliban suicide bomber.

鈥淭heir families sent a message," Abdullah says: " 鈥楧on鈥檛 cancel the rally, because our enemies will feel that they have succeeded.鈥� 鈥�

Ghani: praising women as 'heroes'

That same defiance was also on display today in Kabul, when thousands of Afghans overcame fear to rally in support of another front-runner, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. Under tight security, the former finance minister and World Bank official, who returned to the country in 2002,聽spoke at the infamous stadium where the Taliban once meted out harsh justice to criminals 鈥� amputating limbs and conducting executions.

Many in attendance were impressed with Mr. Ghani鈥檚 academic credentials, some aware that he had been voted by Prospect Magazine.

鈥淎shraf Ghani is the second-most educated person in the world, he can do anything,鈥� insists Haji Mirajam Suleimankhil, who traveled more than 100 miles from Paktika Province. Mohammad Naeim, a 17-year-old student who held an Afghan flag, echoed that sentiment:聽鈥淲e need an educated person, and he can bring brightness in the future.鈥�

In his speech, Ghani spoke broadly of 鈥渄efending the saints of jihad鈥� and of supporting free speech 鈥� but not the kind that will further divide Afghan tribes. He engaged in retail politics, acknowledging the many problems of Kabul, from rampant corruption to traffic congestion. Ghani said he would work for young people, and praised Afghan women as 鈥渉eroes,鈥� drawing cheers from one-quarter of the tiered stadium seats reserved for women, none of whom completely covered their faces with burqas. Ghani said educating women was important because 鈥渙ne educated woman in Afghan society educates a whole family.鈥�

Both Abdullah's and Ghani's rallies passed off without incident.

Abdullah: time to rectify 'mistakes'

Back in the Panjshir on Monday, Abdullah talked about rectifying聽a series of 鈥渕istakes鈥� made in the past 13 years, due to 鈥渢he absence of vision with our leaders, absence of sense of direction, and absence of the will and dedication鈥� to solve Afghanistan鈥檚 problems.

鈥淚 am not a sort of fake politician, I am not something that has been brought here by the wind from the West or the wind from the north,鈥� Abdullah told the Monitor in the interview, speaking in English. 鈥淚 know my people, I know my country. There are candidates who know other countries better than they know Afghanistan, and then they can solve [problems] elsewhere much better than here,鈥� he says, referring obliquely to his main rival, Ghani.

A top priority 鈥� for him and other candidates 鈥� is signing the聽Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States that will ensure continued but limited military support beyond 2014.

That sits well with supporter聽Ramakhuda Afzali, a driver who says he is out of work because the deal has not been signed. 鈥淲e came to elect our president, because now the president [Karzai] is only for the rich people, and not the poor,鈥� he says. He, like many others, had waited in the sun for hours to hear a candidate admired for his role as a doctor for the mujahideen fighting the Soviets in the mid-1980s.

Abdullah points to other failures as well, including the mid-February release by Afghan authorities of 65 prisoners, considered 鈥渄angerous militants鈥� by the US. Abdullah says he is 鈥渘ot surprised鈥� by the subsequent rise of Taliban violence.

鈥淵ou release the most brutal criminals, terrorists, you release them in the society, and that weakens the resolve of your institutions, weakens the morale of your own people, that encourages those [insurgents],鈥� says Abdullah. 鈥淭hey were war criminals and terrorists, who committed heinous crimes; they get off scot-free. That鈥檚 not helpful.鈥�

Abdullah says if the Taliban continue with violence, they will be 鈥渄ealt with clearly,鈥� a message that pleases his supporters at the rally, many of whom chafe at Karzai鈥檚 longstanding aim of negotiating with the Taliban, even calling them welcome 鈥渂rothers鈥� in the past.

鈥淭he president sent our country to the flames,鈥� said Reza Khan, a stout former mujahideen commander who wants Abdullah to win. 鈥淸Karzai] calls the Taliban 鈥榤y brother,鈥� then on this side he calls us 鈥榖rother.鈥� 鈥�

Please follow Scott Peterson on Twitter at @peterson__scott