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India: Bring on the Wal-Mart greeters

The Indian government has loosened restrictions on foreign investment in retail, paving the way for Wal-Mart to open retail stores here.

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Saurabh Das/AP
An employee checks an Indian banknote at the checkout counter of a Bharti-Walmart store on the outskirts of Chandigarh, India, Sunday, Sept. 16. India agreed Friday to open its huge market to foreign retailers such as Wal-Mart as part of a flurry of economic reforms aimed at sparking new growth in the country's sputtering economy.

The Indian government has announced economic reforms that would allow Wal-Mart retail stores to enter India in a bid to increase foreign capital flows and rebuild the current government's tarnished credibility on the subcontinent and abroad.聽

The move Friday ends three years of policy inertia and headlines dominated by corruption, which has seen the economy in India plummet from nearly 10 percent growth to under 6 percent. The ruling Congress Party is now trying to move the conversation away from the subject of corruption by demonstrating it can still get major initiatives done.

鈥淭he sudden push for reforms seem to be born out of desperation,鈥 says Arun Jethmalani, the managing director of ValueNotes,聽a market intelligence and consulting firm based in Pune, India.聽鈥淭he [economic] situation has gotten so bad in India, that some people in the government are finally realizing that we have to do something immediately.鈥

Under new rules, a previous ban on foreign investment in multi-brand, big-box retail stores like Wal-Mart has been relaxed to allow foreign shares of up to 51 percent.聽

The changes will also open the door for single brand foreign investors such as the Swedish furniture store IKEA, by allowing investors to own outlets outright without needing local partners. Restrictions will also be relaxed on foreign investment in airlines, broadcasting, and power exchanges.

滨苍诲颈补鈥檚 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh argues the reforms will boost the economy by injecting foreign capital and introducing foreign expertise in supply-chain management.聽

However, the opening of big-box retail to foreign investment is unlikely to be applied nation-wide. Prime Minister Singh is leaving that up to individual states to decide whether to implement.聽Political observers consider this a聽clever move聽by the prime minister,聽considering the push-back from the leaders of many states against central government-led changes and federal direct investment (FDI).

With many states still hostile to FDI and politics mired in bureaucratic corruption at nearly every level,聽ValueNotes' Mr. Jethmalani believes it will take time to see any real change.

鈥淥n one level the government makes a policy, but on the ground it鈥檚 not so easy,鈥 says Jethmalani. 鈥淚t will happen. But this is India; nothing changes quickly.鈥

Many investment analysts, however, point out the significant upside to the move.

鈥淭he government standing firm on its commitments聽combined with sensible steps on the fiscal side should help boost capital flows,鈥 says Nick Paulson-Ellis,聽India head for Espirito Santos Securities. 鈥淔ederal direct investment is needed to allow 滨苍诲颈补鈥檚 $450 billion retail market, of which only 6 percent is organized, to grow over time. Introducing logistics, supply chain, and cold storage expertise and investment are critical to reducing the criminal levels of wastage in the farm-to-fork chain.鈥

India is still a nation of聽mostly聽mom and pop stores and small farmers heavily controlled by the government and middlemen.聽This聽absence of a streamlined system leads to nearly 40 percent of fruits and vegetables rotting before they reach the consumer. On the other hand, the system employs millions, leaving critics to warn that rapid changes may displace the livelihoods of many.聽

Mr. Paulson-Ellis, meanwhile, cautions that while FDI is important, the most critical issue the government has proposed is聽cutting fuel subsidies.聽The reduction in fuel subsidies will lead to a 12 percent increase in the price of diesel for Indian drivers and the millions of people and companies who use generators to ensure 24/7 power. Though the move may be unpopular, many economists believe the cut in subsidies 鈥撀爓hich mainly benefit the wealthy and middle class 鈥撀爄s essential.聽

鈥淎ddressing the fiscal deficit is of far greater current importance than any FDI reforms,鈥 says Paulson-Ellis. 鈥淲ithout it there is likely to be a 5.8 percent fiscal deficit and near certain downgrade to a sub-investment grade.鈥

Gurcharan Das, an Indian economist and author, believes the聽changes are going to improve the economy far quicker than people realize.

鈥淭here are a number of states where joint ventures with Wal-Mart are already operating,鈥 Mr. Das says. 鈥淚n states like the Punjab and Rajasthan they have already done the groundwork so it will not take long for the new reforms to take hold.鈥

Das believes the coming of modern trade in big box stores like Wal-Mart will bring needed transparency by cutting out the middleman and not allowing politicians to so easily manipulate the market.

Paulson-Ellis points to another quick impact of the policy changes: changes to the rhetoric in the country.聽

鈥淚n two days, an embattled government has changed the debate from rampant corruption 鈥 the latest involving billions of dollars in coal mine allocations,鈥 says Paulson-Elllis.聽聽鈥淎n opposition that was up in arms is seen to be regrouping.鈥

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