海角大神

Pakistan鈥檚 President Asif Ali Zardari has travelled to Dubai for medical treatment, according to top government officials who rubbished reports in the Pakistani media he is about to resign.

Spokesperson Farahnaz Ispahani, who travelled with the president by helicopter yesterday evening, told the Monitor that rumors of Mr. Zardari鈥檚 impending resignation were 鈥渁bsolute nonsense,鈥� adding he had gone for a 鈥渞outine procedure.鈥� Sherry Rehman, ambassador-designate to the United States, who saw the president off in Islamabad on Tuesday evening, says 鈥渉e needs a check-up and some rest.鈥�

Still, Zardari鈥檚 sudden departure has sparked frenzied speculation inside Pakistan about the possibility of a 鈥渟ilent coup.鈥� The theory holds that the unpopular president 鈥� who was due to address parliament about聽a controversial memo allegedly sent by one of his close aides that sought US help in reining in Pakistan鈥檚 powerful Army 鈥� would step aside citing 鈥渋ll health,鈥� paving the way for new leadership more acceptable to the military.

According to Badar Alam, editor of Pakistan鈥檚 Herald magazine, the rumors have quickly gained credibility among the public because of the perception that this government is on its last legs.

鈥淟ook at what has happened in the last two months. The memo scandal, last month鈥檚 NATO border attack, corruption cases against the government in the Supreme Court, the opposition rallies in the streets, and reports of pressure within the ruling party. All these create an atmosphere of uncertainty,鈥� he says.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know who is behind the rumors. But they definitely weaken the government further. It creates an image of instability in the country and gives the impression that anything can happen at any time,鈥� he adds.

President Zardari was voted in to power in 2008 following Pakistan鈥檚 return to democracy after almost nine years of military-led rule. His late wife, Benazir Bhutto, had led the Pakistan People鈥檚 Party (PPP) until her assassination in 2007.

Since then, he has ruled in an uneasy relationship with Pakistan鈥檚 military brass, who retain defacto control over national security and foreign policy issues, yet allow the civilian government to provide a democratic 鈥渧eneer鈥� to the outside world.

While the Army鈥檚 popularity remains steady, Zardari鈥檚 has plummeted owing partly to a series of corruption related scandals. And if the Army generals believe he was actively working against their interests, their patience may run out, says Mr. Alam.

鈥淎s long as the military thinks the PPP are of use, the relationship works. The moment they realize they are becoming a part of the problem they will just ditch them,鈥� he says.

A large part of the fears of a coup are derived from a story published in Foreign Policy鈥檚 "The Cable" blog yesterday, which cited a former US official as saying there is a growing expectation within the US government that Zardari is on the way out.

He also described Zardari as 鈥渋ncoherent鈥� in a phone call between US President Obama and Zardari that he claimed to have access to over the weekend. Analysts within Pakistan question whether a former official would be privy to a conversation held between the US president and another head of state.

Alam expects Zardari will not address his resignation rumors directly, but will continue to have aides dismiss the claims.聽鈥淚f he鈥檚 astute he won鈥檛 say a word and his aides will continue doing the job. Maybe you鈥檒l see an image of him meeting an official, being presidential.鈥�

While Zardari is away in Dubai, his 23-year-old son Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the PPP鈥檚 co-chairman, who is being groomed for future leadership, and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani remain in Islamabad.