海角大神

Five years after Beijing began reshaping the South China Sea to suit its interests in the teeth of international opposition, China has all but taken control of the vital waterway.

China鈥檚 success in asserting an unbreakable strategic grip on the South China Sea through the creation of militarized artificial islands brings it another step closer to its ultimate goal: supplanting the United States as the preeminent power in Asia and the Pacific.

That goal may still be a distant one, many analysts say; the US Navy is still much larger than China鈥檚, to say nothing of Washington鈥檚 network of alliances in the region that took decades to develop.聽聽

But a by the Lowy Institute, a think tank in Sydney, suggests that an increasingly assertive Beijing is rapidly closing in on Washington in the two giants鈥� regional power struggle. And nowhere is that more evident than in the South China Sea, the corridor for over 20 percent of world trade, which even US military officials concede is now firmly in Beijing鈥檚 hands.

鈥淭he ability of the United States to constrain China's expansion in the South China Sea has been close to nothing,鈥� says Robert Ross, an expert in Chinese defense policy at Boston College. 鈥淚t's far from clear how it can do anything more robust than it is doing鈥� already.

Since 2013 China has assiduously sought to change the 鈥渇acts in the water鈥� in the South China Sea, taking strategic charge of the region while avoiding direct military conflict with other countries pursuing competing territorial claims and, most importantly, with the United States.

In 2015, during his first state visit to the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised not to militarize the islands, a pledge he has since broken.

Mine, all mine

At first, China focused on transforming various reefs and islets into artificial islands and claiming them as its own, in defiance of international law. Then the People鈥檚 Liberation Army surreptitiously started to militarize the islands, equipping them with airstrips, radar and missile systems.

In 2016, when an international tribunal found that China鈥檚 expansive claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea had no legal basis, Beijing simply ignored the ruling and went on building islands.聽

Now China appears poised to go even further.

In April, Mr. Xi oversaw the largest naval parade in China鈥檚 history after two days of military drills in the South China Sea. Last month, China landed long-range bombers for the first time at an airfield built on one of its man-made islands. Recent satellite images show newly constructed buildings that could soon be home to China鈥檚 first troops based in the hotly contested Spratly archipelago, where Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam all maintain territorial claims.

When the man-made islands are occupied, 鈥淐hina will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania,鈥� US Adm. Philip Davidson to Congress in April. 鈥淐hina is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.鈥�

During a ceremony at Pearl Harbor聽on Wednesday, Davidson became head of the US Pacific Command, which was renamed the US Indo-Pacific Command to underscore the growing importance of India to the Pentagon.

Davidson is taking over at a time of heightened tensions between China and the US over the South China Sea. Last week, Washington withdrew an invitation for Beijing to participate in multinational naval exercises later this summer in what it called 鈥渁n initial response鈥� to China's militarization of the waterway.

Then,聽on Sunday, the US conducted its latest 鈥渇reedom of navigation鈥� patrol, sending two navy destroyers within 12 miles of islands in the Paracel group to challenge Beijing鈥檚 territorial claims there. Earlier this week, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said American ships would maintain a 鈥渟teady drumbeat鈥� of naval operations around the Spratly Islands.

Davidson鈥檚 predecessor, Adm. Harry Harris, said聽at the Pearl Harbor ceremony聽that while North Korea is the most imminent threat to the United States, China remains Washington鈥檚 biggest long-term challenge.

鈥淲ithout focused involvement and engagement by the United States and our allies and partners,鈥� Harris said, 鈥淐hina will realize its dream of hegemony in Asia.鈥澛�

High-stakes arm wrestling

Although Xi has assured the world he won鈥檛 seek hegemony, he has expressed his belief that the vast majority of the South China Sea has been 鈥淐hina鈥檚 territory since ancient times.鈥� In a speech he gave last October, Xi highlighted 鈥渟teady progress鈥� in the construction of new islands as a major achievement of his first term as president.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei all have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea and are wary of China鈥檚 intentions. On Wednesday, the Philippines warned that it was prepared to go to war if its troops on bases in the South China Sea were harmed.

While the risk of a military confrontation may at times seem high, Zhang Baohui, a professor of international relations at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, says the actions both sides have taken so far show that neither wants to start a war.

鈥淭he South China Sea has become a battleground over prestige in the region,鈥� Prof. Zhang says. 鈥淐hina wants to prove that its rise cannot be stopped by the US. The US wants to show the region that it鈥檚 still in charge.鈥�

How much longer the US will remain the leading power in Asia is an open question. With a defense budget nearly four times the size of China鈥檚, and 11 aircraft carriers to China鈥檚 two, the US is likely to retain the upper hand militarily for years to come. But Zhang says that the contest for regional primacy is about much more than military strength.

鈥淢ilitary is really only part of the competition. China鈥檚 game is to win primacy through its economic power,鈥� he argues, adding that China鈥檚 economic influence in Asia far outweighs that of the United States, and is growing. 鈥淚n the long-term, China establishing some kind of primacy is inevitable.鈥�