South Korea's mission at Friday summit: Proving talk with Kim is worth the while
| Beijing
South Korean President Moon Jae-in isn鈥檛 taking any chances ahead of his historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Friday. Officials from President Moon鈥檚 office have met with their counterparts from across the border three times to coordinate everything from security measures to media coverage. Even the聽 between the two leaders has been planned in excruciating detail 鈥� not to mention their , featuring Pyongyang鈥檚 trademark noodles and an elaborate mousse with a map of the Korean peninsula.聽
Much will be on the line during the meeting on the South Korean side of Panmunjom, a so-called truce village that straddles the border. Not only will it be the first time leaders of the two Koreas have met since 2007; it will also be the first time a supreme leader from the North sets foot in the South. The two men are expected to discuss the North鈥檚 nuclear weapons and missile programs and an official end to the Korean War, which ended in a stalemate in 1953 after three years of fighting.
For Moon, the summit presents the biggest test yet of his pro-engagement strategy toward North Korea. While progressives in South Korea widely support his approach, many conservatives remain deeply skeptical of where it will lead. The challenge Moon faces is to convince them聽鈥� and Washington聽鈥� that engagement doesn鈥檛 mean appeasement, a waste of time,聽or, worse yet, a gift of time to further bolster the North鈥檚 nuclear arsenal.
鈥淲e are standing at a crossroad to denuclearization not by military measures but through peaceful means and permanent peace," during a meeting with his top aides in Seoul on Monday. 鈥淭he entire world is watching and the entire world is hoping for its success.鈥�
The overarching goal of the summit on Friday is to lay the groundwork for Mr. Kim鈥檚 meeting with President Trump in late May or early June. To do that, Moon will need to convince Kim to keep denuclearization on the table, in hopes of aid or a security guarantee down the line. If Moon succeeds, the Korean Peninsula could be one step closer to lasting peace. If he fails, the risk of war on the peninsula could become greater than ever.
鈥淢oon is taking a huge risk by trying to bring Kim and Trump together,鈥� says聽Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. 鈥淚t鈥檚 clear that the North Koreans are willing to have a dialogue, but it鈥檚 unclear if that dialogue will lead to full denuclearization,鈥� the outcome that Mr. Trump has emphasized.
Apart from denuclearization, there are two other key issues聽on Friday鈥檚 agenda: a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War, and improving inter-Korean relations. Yet analysts don鈥檛 expect the summit to produce any major breakthroughs in and of itself, and say that any joint statement from Moon and Kim is likely to be short on specifics. Instead, many view the summit as simply a step toward the more substantial negotiations between Kim and Trump.
The stakes couldn鈥檛 be much higher. Last year, North Korea tested its sixth and most powerful nuclear device and three intercontinental ballistic missiles that experts warn could reach the US mainland. In response to the tests, the United Nations passed its harshest sanctions ever against North Korea. Meanwhile, fears of a US military strike on the North started to grow as Trump threatened to 鈥渢otally destroy鈥� North Korea, and said trying to negotiate with Kim .
Despite the rising tensions聽鈥撀爄ncluding the threats and insults Trump and Kim flung at one another聽鈥� Moon maintained his commitment to peace through dialogue. He made his position clear in he delivered in Berlin last July, two days after Pyongyang鈥檚 first intercontinental ballistic missile test, while asserting that Seoul must 鈥渟it in the driver鈥檚 seat鈥� to manage the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula.
鈥淧resident Moon deserves a great deal of credit,鈥� says Bong聽Young-shik, a research fellow at the Institute for North聽Korean聽Studies at Yonsei University in聽Seoul. 鈥淗e has walked a very fine line.鈥�
Moon鈥檚 focus on engagement with North Korea stands in stark contrast to the hardline approach taken by his predecessor, Park Geun-hye. His strategy more closely resembles the 鈥渟unshine policy鈥� pursued by Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, two liberals who held power from 1998 to 2008.
The 鈥渟unshine policy鈥� emphasized diplomatic and economic engagement with the North, but it failed to secure any concrete gains and clashed with the more aggressive policies favored by President George W. Bush. In light of the policy鈥檚 shortcomings, analysts say, Moon has embraced dialogue with the North while still supporting the economic sanctions championed by the US.
鈥淢oon knows that he has to keep the United States on his side,鈥� Mr. Bong says. 鈥淗e has not wavered in keeping maximum economic pressure on the North.鈥�
At the same time, Moon has made sure to keep the door open for diplomatic engagement, a strategy that faced criticism during much of 2017 as Pyongyang ramped up its weapons testing. Moon鈥檚 first breakthrough came when North Korea accepted his invitation to participate in the Winter Olympics. The Games were widely hailed as a success, and they set in motion the series of events that led to this week鈥檚 summit.
鈥淢oon has done a great job in reversing the course and turning conflict into dialogue,鈥� say Shin聽Gi-wook, the director of the Korea Program at Stanford University. 鈥淗e has been a good facilitator between North Korea and the United States.鈥�
But facilitating will only get Moon so far before Trump needs to step in. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like a relay race,鈥� Dr. Shin says. 鈥淪outh Korea has got a good start, but the United States needs to finish.鈥�
Now that talks are under way, Moon can only hope that Kim and Trump keep them going. The US president welcomed Kim鈥檚 announcement last week that North Korea no longer needed missile and nuclear tests, and would close a key nuclear facility 鈥� a mountain test site which reportedly and is unsafe for further use. While many experts remain skeptical of Kim鈥檚 commitment, Trump has so far spoken positively about the prospect of negotiations. On Tuesday, he praised the North Korean leader as 鈥渧ery open and I think very honorable.鈥�
Still, there is a large gap between what Kim has pledged and what the White House has demanded: full denuclearization. Whether Moon can find a way to help narrow that gap will go a long way in determining the chances of the US and North Korea reaching any agreement. Failure to do so could聽spell the end of his engagement strategy by pushing officials in Seoul and Washington to endorse a more hard-line approach. Alternatively, Moon could decide to risk South Korea's partnership with the US and continue bilateral negotiations with North Korea.
鈥淚f the meetings fall apart, then conservatives in South Korea will blame Moon,鈥� Shin says. 鈥淭hey will say that we were deceived by North Korea once again.鈥�
But some analysts question how much influence Moon will have over the US-North Korea summit. Jenny Town, assistant director of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, says that while the US will take what comes out of Friday鈥檚 meeting into consideration, it will also pursue its own agenda, which could include stricter terms about denuclearization.
鈥淭he Moon administration has portrayed this as a lead-in to the next summit, as if it鈥檚 almost guaranteed that whatever they come up with the US will rubber stamp,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if that鈥檚 really the case.鈥�
For the next 24 hours, however, all eyes will be on Panmunjom, and whether the two Korean leaders鈥� talks will clear a path for a US-Pyongyang summit in the first place.
鈥淢oon鈥檚 job is to make a good volley,鈥澛爏ays Mr. Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations, 鈥渁nd then we鈥檒l wait and see if Trump can spike the ball."
