海角大神

Thailand鈥檚 Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn has much to live up to.

His father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, was the world鈥檚 longest-serving monarch when he died at the age of 88 on Thursday. The king was revered by his subjects as both semi-divine and fatherly, a source of steadiness in a country roiled by decades of social unrest and more than a dozen coups.聽

The prince, on the other hand, holds a far different image among Thais, many of whom regard him as self-indulgent and out of touch. Analysts say he is unlikely to attain the admiration his father commanded over his 70-year rule, raising questions about the country's stability and his father鈥檚 legacy of transforming the palace into Thailand鈥檚 strongest social and political institution.

Tom Pepinsky, who researches Southeast Asian politics as an associate professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., says the king鈥檚 death has serious implications as an increasingly divided country loses an important symbol of unity.

鈥淗is death means that the Thai political system must find an alternative focal point around which to unite the country's factionalized population,鈥� Prof. Pepinsky says.聽

"It's simply聽impossible to imagine that will transfer immediately to the crown prince," he adds. "The monarchy's narrative is going to have to change from deference for an individual to deference for an institution.鈥�

For now, attention is focused on the king's passing, with聽Prime Minster Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the junta leader, declaring a one-year mourning period and asking Thais to dress in black and avoid celebrations for the next month, during which time flags will also fly at half-staff.

The prime minister also said on Thursday that the crown prince had asked for time to mourn with his country before he is appointed, raising the possibility that聽Vajiralongkorn鈥檚 formal coronation won鈥檛 take place for months, if not years.聽Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, a former prime minister with whom the prince has had rocky relations, has been named acting regent.

That has created聽further uncertainty in a country that has fallen into an uneasy calm since the military took control of government just two years ago. In August, the military extended its influence when Thai voters overwhelmingly approved a new constitution that reduces the power of political parties.聽

In the meantime, Thailand鈥檚 political fissures have continued to deepen. Analysts聽warn that the country's military junta could increase its repressive tactics as it negotiates a period in which the country has no king for the first time in seven decades.

The military government has aligned itself closely with the monarchy to bolster its own legitimacy. It routinely invokes l猫se majest茅, the crime of insulting senior members of the royal family, to burnish its image as the monarchy鈥檚 chief defender. Anyone charged with defaming the palace faces up to 15 years in jail.

In anticipation of the king鈥檚 death, military leaders have pursued closer relations with the crown prince over the past year.聽Yet political observers are聽skeptical of the 64-year-old royal鈥檚 ability to become Thailand鈥檚 new moral and political arbitrator. While he was designated his father's successor 40 years ago, it could take years for him to gain the trust of the Thai people, who have long been put off by rumors about his hot temper and tumultuous private life.

The military government has also come to realize that depending on the monarchy for its legitimacy is no longer enough, says Michael Montesano, co-coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. He says the challenge it now faces is to complement their royal partnership with broader political initiatives 鈥� from economic growth to anti-corruption efforts 鈥� to help ensure public support.

鈥淭he centrality of royalty to the Thai political order has diminished,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he junta has clearly been looking for different bases of legitimacy.鈥澛�

Less sway

Thailand has been a constitutional monarchy since 1932. The prime minister and parliament hold political power and the king serves as head of state.

The late king spent most of his reign focused on rural development projects. Although he held no formal political power, he exerted ultimate authority whenever he did intervene in political crises.聽

In 1992, the king helped end a bloody confrontation between the military and pro-democracy protesters when he called the two groups' rival leaders to meet him. They bowed before him on national TV and promised peace.

His son is unlikely to hold similar sway, says Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University in Japan.

Vajiralongkorn is much more private than his father and three sisters. He spends much of his time living outside Thailand, usually in Germany. He has been married and divorced three times, including twice to commoners.

Despite the government鈥檚 efforts to improve the prince鈥檚 image, he reportedly appears ill at ease in public.

Prof. Chachavalpongpun says the military will always work to defend the monarchy. But he warns that the prince鈥檚 lack of moral authority could allow military leaders to take greater control of the Thai political system.

鈥淣o matter how hard his son tries, he will not be able to match the success of his father,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his opens the door for the military to become more powerful.鈥�