海角大神

Five Hong Kong booksellers go missing. China later confirms it has detained two of them. One is seen 鈥渃onfessing鈥� on state television.聽

It sounds like a Graham Greene novel, except that the story is real, with a dangling plotline that leaves at least two big questions unanswered:

Are the booksellers' detentions part of a broader crackdown on free expression in Hong Kong, whence many taboo-breaking publications filter into mainland China?聽

Or is this more of a targeted operation, one aimed at a particular publishing house known for its gossipy books on the sex lives of top Chinese leaders?

It could be a mix of both, according to Bao Pu, founder of New Century Press in Hong Kong and the son of a prominent Chinese Communist Party leader purged years ago.

Mr. Bao said the five missing booksellers, part of the Mighty Current publishing house, may have put themselves at risk with their salacious books. But at the same time, he added, the Chinese government has for years worked to undercut and defang Hong Kong's entire independent bookseller industry.

鈥淭he impact of this one incident is minimal compared to everything else that has been going on the last ten years,鈥� says Bao in a telephone interview from Hong Kong. 鈥淭hey have pretty much wiped us out.鈥�

Hong Kong has been rocked this month by the Mighty Current disappearances. One, a Swedish national named Gui Minhai, vanished from his Bangkok apartment in October. Soon after, another, British passport holder Lee Bo, went missing in Hong Kong, with his wife saying he had been abducted.聽

Who might be next?聽

鈥淭his has really struck fear into people in Hong Kong,鈥� said William Nee, China researcher for Amnesty International, based in Hong Kong. 鈥淧eople may be overreacting, but they don鈥檛 know if they could be next.鈥�

China鈥檚 recent confirmation that it is holding Mr. Gui and Mr. Lee hasn鈥檛 diminished concerns of supporters.

Gui鈥檚 whereabouts, for example, became clear when state television in China ran a tearful public confession by him of 12-year-old drunk driving charges. 鈥淭he video [confession of Gui] certainly raises more questions than answers,鈥� said Bao. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 address how he got to China. There are obvious discrepancies.鈥�

Lee鈥檚 wife, Sophie Choi, told Hong Kong media this week that she met her husband聽Saturday聽at an undisclosed location on the mainland. She said he was acting as a witness for an investigation and repeated what she said were Lee鈥檚 wishes that media stop paying attention to his case.

Bao said he feels empathy for anyone who finds themselves in Beijing鈥檚 crosshairs.

In 1989, he was a young protester in Tiananmen Square. His father, Bao Tong, was a top aide to Communist Party chief Zhao Ziyang. Both leaders refused to crack down on the pro-democracy protests and were purged; Bao Tong later spent seven years in prison.聽

Following his father鈥檚 arrest, Bao Pu fled to the US and thence to Hong Kong, founding New Century Press in 2005. He specializes in political memoirs by party leaders, including a blockbuster diary by Zhao Ziyang on the party鈥檚 handling of the Tiananmen crisis.聽

Bao Pu acknowledges that he is not a fan of Mighty Current鈥檚 publications. While the two businesses cater to a similar audience 鈥� Chinese tourists eager to buy banned political books 鈥� the two publishing houses are worlds apart.聽

New Century Press publishes only a few titles a year, mostly careful insider accounts of party dealings. Mighty Current mass-produces tabloid-style books that critics say are based largely on rumor and innuendo.聽

Such books, said Bao Pu, have lowered the publishing standard in Hong Kong and made it harder for legitimate publishers to survive.

鈥淵es, it is a big market,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut the valuable books are buried by hundreds of books that have a sensational title, and made-up facts. There are hundreds of those, unfortunately.鈥�

Speculation abounds on why Mighty Current was targeted at this time. Sources have told the 海角大神 Science Monitor that Gui was preparing to publish a book on the former lovers of Chinese President Xi Jinping. That claim has not been confirmed.聽

Speculations on Jiang Zemin's status

One of Mighty Current鈥檚 recent books reported that former Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin had been under house arrest since May of 2015, for opposing Xi鈥檚 anti-corruption campaign. Soon after it was published, Jiang appeared with Xi at China鈥檚 grandiose military parade in September.

In Hong Kong independent publishers and journalists point to a pattern of harassment, even violence, that dates back years.

In February 2014, two men with knives attacked Kevin Lau, a former editor-in-chief of Ming Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper often critical of Beijng.聽

More recently, some Hong Kong bookstores have pulled books from their shelves that are banned on the mainland. In May, police in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong, arrested two journalists for 鈥渙perating illegal publications鈥� in the city. There have also been reports of Shenzhen border guards stepping up their searches of cars entering from Hong Kong to confiscate banned books.

Mr. Nee, the Amnesty researcher, said there鈥檚 little doubt that Beijing is undermining free speech in Hong Kong. Last April, he noted, the Cyberspace Administration of China published a report calling for a 鈥渟weep-out鈥� of illegal publications that promoted 鈥渞eactionism鈥� through 鈥渃ontent relating to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and 鈥榝oreign harmful culture.'鈥�

The report called, in part, to 鈥渢horoughly cleanse and strike down all kind of illegal harmful information and create a clear and orderly online ecosystem.鈥澛�