海角大神

Amid all the hype surrounding Thursday鈥檚 opening of the ruling Communist Party鈥檚 18th Congress, the headlines declaring it 鈥渃rucial鈥� to China鈥檚 future, and the crush of more than 1,000 foreign reporters accredited to cover the confab, it is sometimes hard to remember that the week-long meeting is not actually going to decide anything.

The only question of interest to anyone outside the Great Hall of the People is who will emerge from the congress at the top of the Communist Party. And that will have been decided in much smaller conclaves before the delegates take their seats.

The congress 鈥渋s a show for mass consumption,鈥� says Zheng Yongnian, head of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore. 鈥淏ut it matters because it is very symbolic, and the new leaders who have been selected have to go through the formal procedures.鈥�

The 2,270 delegates will in fact elect only the 300 or so members and alternate members of the party鈥檚 Central Committee. It is they, meeting next week once the congress is over, who will elect the two dozen members of the decisionmaking Politburo, who in turn will name a handful of men 鈥� either seven or nine, rumors vary 鈥� to the Politburo Standing Committee at the summit of the pyramid.

鈥淏ut 95 percent of the election results have been fixed before the congress,鈥� says Li Datong, a former editor of Freezing Point, a Communist Party youth magazine. 鈥淭he congress has meaning only as propaganda, showing off the achievements of the past 10 years鈥� since outgoing party General Secretary Hu Jintao took the top job.

'Sailing the broad sea'

The slogans are indeed self-congratulatory. 鈥淲elcome the successful 18th聽Party Congress Marking Great Achievements鈥� reads an electronic signboard splashing party propaganda across Tiananmen Square.

鈥淪ailing the broad sea under a boundless sky鈥� proclaimed a headline in Tuesday鈥檚 People鈥檚 Daily, the official party organ, above a dense page-long account of accomplishments such as the launching of space rockets, the planting of trees, record grain harvests, and the construction of high-speed railways.

The tasks that the congress has supposedly set itself are equally portentous.

鈥淭he party needs to figure out how it will draw on past invaluable experience, open up a path of innovation, meet the people鈥檚 needs, solve problems concerning the people鈥檚 vital interests, and introduce more suitable policies at the macro and micro levels for improving the people鈥檚 living standards,鈥� according to another article in the People鈥檚 Daily.

Bold moves?

Delegates will do no such thing, say analysts who point out that the Communist Party鈥檚 congress, which meets every five years, is not a deliberative body. The meeting will listen to President Hu鈥檚 report on his last five years in office, but nobody is expecting his successor, Xi Jinping, to announce any bold moves.

When a new generation of leaders takes charge in China, says David Kelly, an analyst with China Policy, a Beijing-based consultancy, 鈥渁 few years go by in which the new incumbent settles his political debts, promotes his supporters, pays his respects to his predecessors, and builds enough political capital to launch his own directives.鈥�

鈥淐ongresses are a time for political continuity, not political change,鈥� agrees Professor Zheng. 鈥淭he new leaders have been chosen by the old leaders, and they select people to continue their policies. It is the faces that change at congresses, not policies.鈥澛犅�

Still, party congresses are important, says Dr. Kelly, because behind the headline event 鈥� the transition to a new generation of leaders 鈥� 鈥渁 lot must go on. New people who have been bumped up the totem pole will meet for the first time, and new alignments and alliances will be formed.鈥�

Those new alliances will have a lot of challenges to deal with; economic growth is slowing amid other signs that China will have to fundamentally reorient its policies away from cheap exports; popular unrest is growing, to judge by the rising number of spontaneous protests that break out more than a thousand times a week in one part or another of the country; and the ruling party is nervous enough about its future to have allowed public discussion recently of its crisis of legitimacy.

Against that background, argues Kelly, the congress that opens on Thursday has particular significance. 鈥淭he party has a greater stake than ever in renewing its claim to legitimacy through this leadership transition,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he congress is a source of that legitimacy, because it shows that something has been renewed.鈥�