Attendance of Kim Jong-un at North Korean conference uncertain
| Seoul, South Korea
Excitement surrounding the first North Korea鈥檚 Workers鈥� Party conference in 44 years is building to what analysts expect will be a climax Tuesday of rhetoric and celebrations in Pyongyang.
Still, It seems few people know what actually will happen on an occasion that the North Korean media has said will be 鈥渉istoric.鈥�
The most that Suh Jae-jean, president of the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification, can surmise is that 鈥渋t seems there is a policy shift in North Korean leadership鈥� and 鈥渢he politburo鈥� of the party 鈥渨ill be reinforced.鈥�
Mr. Suh offers that forecast as a hedge against widespread reports that the sole purpose of the conference is to promote 20-something Kim Jong-un as the chosen successor of his father, Kim Jong-il, who came to power in July 1994 after the death of his father, the long-ruling Kim Il-sung.
鈥淭here will be uncertainty,鈥� says Suh, avoiding a specific forecast. 鈥淭he political shift that鈥檚 coming will open a Pandora鈥檚 box. We should be fully prepared for what鈥檚 happening on the Korean peninsula.鈥�
Suh sees North Korea submerged under problems ranging from the failing economy to the aftermath of the sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette the Cheonan in March. Pyongyang denied any role in the sinking, which a South Korean investigation blamed on a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine, but Suh believes the episode has caused serious problems for the regime.
It鈥檚 鈥渃reated a lot of tension with South Korea and the United States and even with China,鈥� he says, even though China steadfastly refuses to endorse the South Korean investigation. 鈥淚t鈥檚 brought a lot of shame from the international community.鈥�
The sinking has also resulted in major South Korean and American military war games. This week, 10 United States and South Korean warships, including two American destroyers and a submarine, are staging antisubmarine exercises in the Yellow Sea near where the Cheonan went down.
The North Korean media denounce the exercises as 鈥減rovocations鈥� and 鈥減reparations for war,鈥� but the need for a party conference suggests to analysts the dire straits into which the country is falling.
Whether Kim Jong-un will be introduced in public, whether he will be seen in a lineup of new members of the politburo or the party central committee, or whether his name will appear in the North Korean media seems to be anyone鈥檚 guess. He鈥檚 said to have been mentioned in a message that North Korea鈥檚 Foreign Ministry sent to North Korean diplomatic missions, and mid-level military officers are believed to have been told of his importance, but none of that guarantees his public debut.
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鈥淢aybe we will hear his name,鈥� says Choi Jin-wook, a senior research fellow at the Korean Institute of National Unification. Mr. Choi is more confident about chances for seeing Kim Jong-un's father at the conference. 鈥淜im Jong-il will show up tomorrow,鈥� he says, even though the Dear Leader is reportedly suffering from a number of ailments.
Banners are flying high in Pyongyang proclaiming the conference, and a parade may be in the offing, according to Daily NK, an Internet service here, but there is more to resolve than just Kim Jong-un鈥檚 succession. Whether he makes an appearance, in fact, may not be nearly so important as concern over the meaning of the conference in terms of North Korea鈥檚 worsening economic and social problems.
鈥淭he system is weaker and more unstable,鈥� says Lee Yoo-jin, professor at Sookmyung University here. 鈥淲e are talking more and more about preparing for collapse of the regime.鈥� Still, he adds, 鈥淎s long as China supports North Korea, it will muddle through.鈥�
