Ecuador's elections: Who are the contenders?
A version of this post ran on the聽聽site. The views expressed are the author's own.
On Feb. 19, Ecuadoreans head to the polls for general elections to choose the president and vice president, along with all 137 seats in the country鈥檚 unicameral legislature and five representatives to the Andean Congress. An expected presidential runoff is slated for April 2. The country鈥檚 National Electoral Council said about聽聽of the country鈥檚 16 million citizens will be eligible to vote this year, including some聽. Voting is mandatory in Ecuador; turnout in the last general elections in 2013 was just over聽.
For聽the first time in more than a decade, current President Rafael Correa will not be on the ballot. Although Congress did聽聽in a December 2015 reform package, the new amendment will not go into effect until after the next president is sworn in 鈥� a concession Mr. Correa made to congressional opposition leaders in order to get the amendment passed.聽That said, he鈥檚 hinted several times he鈥檇 be game to return to the presidential residence. 鈥淚f they keep bugging me, I鈥檒l run in 2021 and we鈥檒l beat them again,鈥� he said in a聽.
But the last few years of his decade in office have left his legacy in doubt. After years of high oil revenues and infrastructure expansions, the聽聽cut billions from the聽country鈥檚 budget. Among other measures, Correa responded by increasing taxes and government spending;聽, the size of government as a percent of GDP doubled during Correa鈥檚 tenure from 21 percent to 43 percent. So, while government workers feel financially secure, the private sector and entrepreneurs face a more difficult economic environment. The International Monetary Fund projects Ecuador's economy will 聽in 2017, after a 2.3 percent contraction 鈥� and 7.8 magnitude earthquake 鈥� in 2016 put the economy on its heels.聽
A majority of Ecuadoreans in聽December 2016, a blow for the president who enjoyed聽聽ratings for much of his presidency.
The candidates
Correa鈥檚 popularity will have the most direct implications for聽Len铆n Moreno, the president鈥檚 former vice president and chosen successor on his PAIS Alliance party ticket, who currently has a healthy lead in polls but could face a tight runoff. Mr. Moreno鈥檚 running mate, Jorge Glas, is Correa鈥檚 current vice president and at the heart of a 聽involving the state oil company and alleged bribes from the Brazilian firm Odebrecht.聽Still, Moreno has the full backing of the political machine and, if he鈥檚 able to pick up more support after the first round, he could be hard to beat. Moreno has promised to continue many of Correa鈥檚 projects, and his platform focuses on health, education, jobs, social security, and developing Ecuador as an聽听诲别蝉迟颈苍补迟颈辞苍.
His closest competitor in the polls is former banker聽Guillermo Lasso, from the Creating Opportunities party. Mr. Lasso was the runner-up in the 2013 presidential race, losing by more than聽聽when Correa won a third term.聽At the heart of his platform is a list of 14 taxes he says he鈥檇 eliminate on day one, including a hot-button capital gains tax 鈥撀燼 pet project of Correa鈥檚聽鈥� along with聽聽on rural lands, cars, and soda in an effort to stop capital flight. His viability in the runoff, if he makes it, will hinge on his ability to channel anti-肠辞谤谤别铆蝉尘辞, and to that effect, he鈥檚 been eager to keep Mr. Glas in the spotlight of corruption issues,聽naming him聽鈥�.鈥�
Cynthia Viteri, from the Social 海角大神 Party, is a conservative former congresswoman. The only woman presidential candidate, her聽聽focuses not just on stimulating the economy but also on reinforcing the country鈥檚 democratic institutions after ten years of Correa鈥檚 centralization of power. While some polls show her neck and neck with Lasso for second place, her support tends to be limited to the urban centers of Quito and Guayaquil.
The last of the major candidates is the retired general and former mayor of Quito聽Paco Moncayo, from the National Agreement for Change party. His聽聽addresses a host of social programs while also making the simple promise, 鈥淣o more taxes.鈥�
A handful of other minor candidates round out the聽.
Close to 90 percent of Ecuadorean voters say the country needs change 鈥� and聽聽say it needs big ones.聽The economic crisis and high prices due to inflation are the聽top concerns, followed closely by unemployment and corruption. While government statistics place the unemployment rate around 5 percent, the rate of聽聽5 points in 2016 to just under 20 percent of workers.聽In the December聽, three in five of those polled said someone in their family lost his or her job in the last three months.
The presidential candidates held a debate on Feb. 5 and, while it was officially the聽聽of the campaign season, it was the first with all eight candidates as聽聽the first one, held on Jan. 25.聽Corruption, democratic freedoms, and the economy were front and center in the second debate, though some聽聽said they didn鈥檛 understand the various platforms the candidates presented at the debates.
Holly K. Sonneland is editorial manager for聽, the website of the Americas Society and Council of the Americas.
