What do Venezuela's regional election results say about the opposition's future?
鈥�听David Smilde is the moderator of WOLA's blog:听.听The views expressed are the author's own.
is a summary of [yesterday's regional election] results in Venezuela.
Opposition
- Hold:听Miranda, Lara,听Amazonas
- Gain:听None
PSUV
- Hold: Anzoategui, Apure, Aragua, Barinas, Bol铆var, Cojedes, Delta Amacuro, Falc贸n, Gu谩rico, M茅rida, Portuguesa, Sucre, Trujillo, Vargas, Yaracuy
- Gain: Carabobo, Monagas, Nueva Esparta, T谩chira, Zulia.
Taken as a referendum on Ch谩vez鈥檚 legacy and the carryover of his charisma to other candidates, this result provides clear reason for celebration for the Ch谩vez coalition. It is, of course, a brutal result for the opposition which lost opposition strongholds such as Zulia, Carabobo, and T谩chira 鈥� the last two by large margins 鈥� and gained none. However, it was not a fatal result insofar as Henrique Capriles听squeaked听out a win in Miranda.
Taken as a primary, the vote provided some clarity for the opposition. Capriles won on a night that most other opposition candidates lost, including his most viable rival, Pablo P茅rez. The only other opposition candidates to win are 鈥渄issidents鈥� who were pro-Ch谩vez only a couple of years ago. Thus there is little chance that they could be viable national leaders within the opposition coalition.
The elections show that Ch谩vez鈥檚 charisma can indeed carry-over to other politicians in his coalition, at least in the short term. It is important to remember how compressed this time frame has been. In the week immediately preceding the elections, Ch谩vez announced the recurrence of his cancer, designated a successor, and underwent surgery. This wave of attention and emotion clearly had a significant impact on the elections.
It is likely that if, in the coming month or two, Ch谩vez were incapacitated and had to step aside this same transfer of charisma could deliver the presidency to Nicol谩s Maduro. However, if Ch谩vez鈥檚 health crisis were to extend and he did not step aside for another three or four or six months, the situation could be quite different. The government has a number of issues it needs to confront in 2013, most importantly the economy, and doing so will surely spend some of its political capital. So while their performance in [yesterday]鈥檚 elections certainly makes the PSUV the odds on favorite if new presidential elections were to be called, there are a lot of intervening variables that keep the future less than certain.
One last note. Ch谩vez鈥檚 designation of Nicol谩s Maduro as successor has been rightly seen as a big plus for the civilian over the military wing of the Ch谩vez coalition. However, it should be pointed out that tonight four of the five states that flipped to the PSUV had former military officers as candidates: Arias Cardenas in Zulia, Francisco Ameliach in Carabobo, Jose Vielma Mora in T谩chira, and Carlos Mata Figueroa in Nueva Esparta. And five of the states the PSUV held were won by former or current military officers as candidates: Ram贸n Carrizalez in Apure, Henry Rangel Silva in Trujillo, Jorge Garc铆a Carneiro in Vargas, Wilmar Castro in Portuguesa, and Francisco Rangel G贸mez in Bol铆var.
鈥� 听David Smilde is the moderator of WOLA's blog:听.
