Venezuelan election: key takeaways from a Ch谩vez victory
鈥�听David Smilde is the moderator of WOLA's blog:听.听The views expressed are the author's own.
A couple of hours after the results were announced, here are my initial reactions. Winning by 9.5 percent represents a real decline from the three previous presidential elections which Hugo Ch谩vez has won by 15 to 20 percent. However it is still a decisive victory that President Ch谩vez accepted with grace. While previous victories have led to vitriolic triumphalism, [Sunday night] Ch谩vez was more circumspect in his celebration.
Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles recognized the electoral defeat quickly and gave no encouragement to the 鈥減lan B鈥� of saying the electoral playing field was unfair. Indeed he actively discouraged the 鈥渃reative radicalism鈥� of some elements of the opposition. This would seem to reinforce the predominance of the new generation of opposition politicians represented by Mr. Capriles and campaign manager Armando Briquet. However, the fact that Capriles did not make any reference to the December regional elections suggests to me that not all is settled in the opposition camp. If Capriles had lost by 5 percent or less, his dominance in the opposition coalition would have been ensured. But losing by almost 10 percent means there could well be a struggle for leadership.
It will be interesting to see what this electoral result will mean in the international community. While some in Washington recently revealed 鈥�,鈥� and announced that 鈥�,鈥� Capriles accepted the electoral loss without qualification.听
Of course it would have been difficult for him to do otherwise. During this electoral process, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) allowed for more audits of the electronic platform than ever before. The opposition participated in, and approved all of them. Arguing that the government dominated the media also became difficult when both the CNE and the听, in separate studies, found that Capriles had received more media coverage than Ch谩vez. And focusing on voter intimidation certainly became more difficult when turnout exceeded 80 percent.
Former Ambassador Patrick Duddy鈥檚 recent听 had one important suggestion that has not received enough attention. In the opening section he argues:听鈥淚f Ch谩vez is reelected in a process judged acceptably free and fair, the United States should seek to reset the bilateral relationship with an eye toward the eventual renewal of high-level communication on areas of mutual interest.鈥� [Sunday night's] results and the candidates鈥� acceptance of them suggest that it鈥檚 time for Washington to think through Duddy鈥檚 suggestion.
鈥� 听David Smilde is the moderator of WOLA's blog:听.
