Is Latin America shifting to the political right? Peru may offer another story.
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
The lead in Peru鈥檚 statistically tied presidential election swung from right to left Monday 鈥� leaving the country facing days, if not weeks, of uncertainty before a winner is declared.
Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori held an ultra slim advantage Monday morning, but by the afternoon, leftist candidate Roberto S谩nchez had eked out a minuscule lead 鈥� two-tenths of a percentage point, with 94% of votes counted. Election officials foresee additional moves in the top spot as final votes roll in.
Much clearer is what the virtual 50-50 split between Ms. Fujimori and Mr. S谩nchez says about Peru鈥檚 political landscape 鈥� and Latin America more broadly.
Why We Wrote This
Many predicted a rightward political shift in Peru's presidential runoff. But the statistically tied preliminary results underscore a deep polarization that reaches across the region.
More than the rightward shift that some in Peru had predicted, the results underscore a deeply polarized electorate and an enduring right-left political divide. In Peru鈥檚 case, that bitter standoff has been an underlying factor in the political instability that has given the country nine presidents in 10 years.
The preliminary results of Sunday鈥檚 runoff election are nearly identical to those of Peru鈥檚 2021 contest. In that vote, leftist Pedro Castillo 鈥� Mr. S谩nchez鈥檚 political mentor 鈥� bested Ms. Fujimori by less than one percentage point. Ms. Fujimori鈥檚 political party, Popular Force, went on to play a pivotal role in Mr. Castillo鈥檚 removal from office in December 2022.
The results in Peru might also suggest a hardening and tightening right-left divide across the region.
Ahead of Sunday鈥檚 runoff, observers predicted that Peru was about to join other Latin American countries from Chile to Ecuador in a rightward political shift. But the results don鈥檛 confirm that. If anything, they more closely mirror elections such as those in Honduras, where only after weeks of ballot counting and recounting (and accusations of fraud) following last year鈥檚 vote was the conservative candidate Nasry Asfura declared the winner.
Peru鈥檚 election might also prove to be a bellwether for how the wider region navigates the challenging international atmosphere created by U.S. President Donald Trump. His aggressive 鈥淒onroe Doctrine鈥� proclaims American dominance in the hemisphere and demands that brakes be applied to China鈥檚 growing regional influence.
Mr. S谩nchez, who served as trade and tourism minister under President Castillo, offered assurances during the campaign that, under his leadership, Peru would continue to welcome business and investment relationships with all global trade powers. He avoided demonizing Mr. Trump or promoting the growing anti-yanqui sentiments within some of his allied leftist groups.
At the same time, Ms. Fujimori 鈥� widely seen as the more business-friendly of the two contenders 鈥� underscored in her campaign that she would maintain an open door to all investors and powers.
鈥淣either is likely to turn their back on China as a major trading partner, nor embrace the more hostile elements of Trump鈥檚 Latin American and immigration policies,鈥� said Cynthia Sanborn, director of the Center for China and the Asia-Pacific at Peru鈥檚 Universidad del Pacifico, in a post-election commentary for Americas Quarterly.
鈥淏oth focus on Peru being a hub to the Pacific,鈥� she said.
Indeed, Ms. Fujimori鈥檚 apparent refusal to take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry in her country and the region might explain why Mr. Trump did not endorse her, as he did Mr. Asfura in Honduras and other right-wing candidates in recent Latin American elections.
If Ms. Fujimori ultimately wins the presidency, it would be a remarkable capstone to a political career that has kept her in the limelight for decades. In 1994, she began serving as Peru鈥檚 first lady after her father, President Alberto Fujimori, offered her the job when she was just 19 years old.
Sunday鈥檚 election marked Ms. Fujimori鈥檚 fourth try at following in her disgraced father鈥檚 footsteps. Early in the campaign, Ms. Fujimori was seen as distancing herself from her father鈥檚 controversial rule: Mr. Fujimori is credited with defeating Peru鈥檚 virulent terrorism of the 1990s, but is also disdained for turning increasingly dictatorial and corrupt.
But as public opinion surveys showed voters listing crime, public order, and political instability as their top issues, in recent weeks, Ms. Fujimori shifted to a full embrace of her father鈥檚 anti-terrorism mantle.
It might turn out to be the shift that brought Keiko Fujimori back to the presidential palace that once, as first lady, she had painted pink. Or maybe she won't return there at all.
