Ecuadorians may not love their new president, but they voted for his 鈥榠ron fist鈥�
| Quito, Ecuador
Ang茅lica Herrera, a homemaker in her 40s, voted to elect Ecuador鈥檚 next president on Sunday not because she loves incumbent Daniel Noboa鈥檚 vision, but precisely because of how difficult she feels life in Ecuador has become.
鈥淚 had to choose the lesser evil,鈥� says Ms. Herrera, who over the past year has been exhausted by 14-hour blackouts and an escalating security crisis that has made her fearful of walking on her own in the formerly sleepy streets of Quito.
鈥淲e鈥檙e invaded by crime and drug terrorism. We鈥檙e not doing well,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e hope our country will change.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Ecuadorians are unhappy with their security and economic crises 鈥� and yet, they reelected President Daniel Noboa. It bucks an anti-incumbent trend, but is telling in a region cozying up to iron-fisted approaches to violence and crime.
Incumbents around the globe have聽 at the polls since the pandemic 鈥� and in Ecuador, no president has been reelected in more than a decade. And yet, Mr. Noboa secured 56% of the ballots in the second-round presidential vote April 13, with his opponent, leftist Luisa Gonz谩lez, winning 44%.
Mr. Noboa鈥檚 tough-on-crime policies, political alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump, and voter skepticism about Ms. Gonz谩lez鈥檚 ability to address Ecuador鈥檚 security and economic crises paved the way for his reelection. His victory could serve as a bellwether for upcoming elections across the region, where voters face rising insecurity and weigh how candidates navigate ties with Mr. Trump.
Three in 5 Ecuadorians say their personal security and economic situations have not improved under Mr. Noboa鈥檚 short first term in office. He was elected in 2023 snap elections, with less than a year and a half to prove himself before his reelection bid. And although insecurity has been on the rise under his watch 鈥� the first two months of 2025 were Ecuador鈥檚 most deadly on record 鈥� Mr. Noboa鈥檚 militarized approach to criminal organizations has earned him voter confidence.
His victory is in many ways a reflection of tensions playing out across the region. As crime and violence grow, electorates from the Southern Cone to Central America are leaning into models that create calm through mano dura, or 鈥渋ron fist,鈥� security policies. These policies often restrict citizen rights in the name of being tough on crime. In Ecuador, Mr. Noboa has brought 鈥渟tate of emergency鈥� decrees, which restrict freedom of movement, squarely into his聽crime-fighting toolbox. He declared one in seven states the day before his reelection.
鈥淭he vote was not objective; it was emotional,鈥� says Renato Rivera, director of the Ecuadorian Observatory on Organized Crime. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not that citizens have confidence in Noboa鈥檚 security strategy or that it has worked, but it鈥檚 a reflection of鈥� the desire for it to work, he says of the growing popularity of hard-line security policies here and regionwide.
Popular security strategy 鈥� without results?
In October 2023, Mr. Noboa became Ecuador鈥檚 youngest elected president after conservative President Guillermo Lasso dissolved parliament amid impeachment charges. A relatively unknown son of a banana tycoon, Mr. Noboa won with 51.8% of the vote to Ms. Gonz谩lez鈥檚 48.1%, just weeks after another presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was murdered on the campaign trail, underscoring growing insecurity.
Ecuador, once among the region鈥檚 most peaceful countries, saw its homicide rate soar from 6.9 per 100,000 in 2019, to 45.1 in 2023 鈥� more than a sixfold increase, driven partly by expanding drug trafficking routes.
Over his first term of 18 months, Mr. Noboa weathered bloody prison riots, more than a dozen masked men storming a public television channel waving guns and explosives during a live broadcast, a sluggish economy with debt amounting to聽 of the gross domestic product, and an electricity crisis due to a drought that emptied hydroelectric dams last year.
Security was voters鈥� top concern Sunday.
Mr. Noboa鈥檚 security strategy 鈥渉as not worked,鈥� says Mr. Rivera, from the security think tank. Homicides may have dropped 18% between 2023 and 2024, which some attribute to Mr. Noboa鈥檚 crackdown on gangs, but Mr. Rivera says that had more to do with the consolidation of criminal groups than with policy. Meanwhile, kidnappings and extortion have surged. And the first two months this year were the bloodiest in Ecuador鈥檚 history, with more than one person killed every hour, according to data from Ecuador鈥檚 Ministry of Interior.
Mr. Noboa has proposed constitutional changes to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, laying the groundwork for the United States to lend a hand in fighting insecurity here. And a week before the vote, Mr. Noboa hosted Erik Prince, the founder of U.S. security contractor Blackwater to potentially assist law enforcement. He declared a 60-day state of emergency on the eve of the election in seven of 24 provinces, suspending legal protections against warrantless search and entry of homes, limiting public gatherings, and imposing a nightly curfew in some cities.
鈥淏enefit of the doubt鈥�
Mr. Noboa is borrowing from the hard-line playbook of El Salvador鈥檚 President Nayib Bukele, who has won accolades for slashing some of the region鈥檚 worst homicide rates. But the Salvadoran president has locked up nearly 1.7% of the country鈥檚 adult population in the process, often without due process.
Ecuador鈥檚 population is nearly three times larger than that of El Salvador, and its criminal networks are more transnational. Leaders across the region are watching Ecuador鈥檚 mano dura experiment closely: In neighboring Colombia violence is spiraling despite President Gustavo Petro鈥檚 promises of total peace, and next year鈥檚 presidential elections could replace a leftist former guerrilla with a right-wing tough-on-crime challenger.
Regional leaders are also watching Mr. Noboa鈥檚 rapport with U.S. President Trump. After a clash between Colombia鈥檚 leftist President Petro and Mr. Trump in January, which prompted threats of up to 50% tariffs and U.S. visa revocations, 鈥淓cuadorians were not willing to take that risk鈥� of seeing how a leftist leader like Ms. Gonz谩lez would manage relations with Mr. Trump, says Beatriz Garc铆a Nice, an Ecuador expert.
Mr. Noboa was one of the few Latin American leaders to attend Mr. Trump鈥檚 inauguration, and he visited him last month at his Mar-a-Lago resort. The U.S. president鈥檚 return to power has pushed voters in Latin America to prioritize geopolitical pragmatism over ideology, says Ms. Garc铆a Nice.
Typically, being in office when crises hit is a recipe for a political party to get booted from office, according to a global study by the Pew Research Center. But 鈥淰oters have given [Mr. Noboa] the benefit of the doubt,鈥� says Juan Rivadeneira, an Ecuadorian economist and political consultant.
Mr. Noboa promotes a 鈥渘ew Ecuador,鈥� which he contrasts with the opposition鈥檚 鈥渙ld Ecuador,鈥� full of corruption. He has a presence on Instagram and TikTok, and appeals to Ecuador鈥檚 young electorate, whose average age is just 28.
鈥淣oboa managed to engage and connect with young people. He and his wife [a wellness influencer] have created something for young people to aspire to,鈥� says Renato Solines, an Ecuadorian businessman.
But this election was also about what voters want to avoid. Mr. Noboa 鈥渕obilized fear,鈥� says Mr. Rivadeneira 鈥� around not only security threats, but also more quotidian issues, such as Ecuador鈥檚 dollarized economy.
But Mr. Noboa鈥檚 path ahead will be steep. Even if he can rein in crime or revive the economy, voters may boot him out in four years, as with other incumbents in the region.
