海角大神

While world leaders have expressed shock and bewilderment over Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa鈥檚 decision to raid Mexico鈥檚 embassy April 5, the extraordinarily unusual move 鈥� and Mr. Noboa鈥檚 relative silence about it 鈥� is unlikely to hurt him with his constituents. In fact, it鈥檚 exactly the sort of no-holds-barred crimefighting they expect and voted for.

Ecuadorians were looking for their action man last election, fed up with widespread corruption and the robberies, kidnappings, extortions, and murders fueled by the growing presence of international drug cartels. Mr. Noboa, often sporting bulletproof vests, sunglasses, and leather jackets as well as the occasional smart-casual white T-shirt, so far seems to be fulfilling that role. If stopping lawbreakers in their tracks means breaching an embassy, then so be it, Ecuadorians interviewed over the weekend told The Associated Press.

鈥淧resident Noboa has given a strong message to the nation,鈥� said Carlos Galecio, a political communications consultant and coordinator of the communications program at Ecuador鈥檚 Casa Grande University. 鈥淸It鈥檚] a very powerful image boost.鈥�

Mr. Noboa, the heir to one of Ecuador鈥檚 largest fortunes, was sworn in as president in November after unexpectedly winning a special election in August. He defeated the protege of leftist ex-President Rafael Correa, who avoided serving a prison sentence related to a corruption conviction by moving to Belgium and securing asylum there.

Mr. Noboa inherited a country where people no longer leave home unless absolutely necessary, almost everyone knows a crime victim, and many consider migrating. Statistics back those decisions and experiences: Last year was Ecuador鈥檚 bloodiest on record, with more than 7,600 homicides 鈥� up from 4,600 the prior year.

The causes for the spike are complex but largely revolve around cocaine. Cartel-aided gangs are battling for control of the streets, prisons, and drug routes to the Pacific. Dwindling state coffers, soaring debts, political infighting, and corruption created funding gaps in social and law-enforcement programs. And the COVID-19 pandemic turned hungry children and unemployed adults into easy recruits for criminal groups.

Mr. Noboa has responded by promising more equipment for police and the armed forces and the construction of prisons similar to those President Nayib Bukele built in El Salvador, with high-security, maximum-security, and supermax units. He also issued a decree labeling more than 20 criminal groups as terrorist organizations and scheduled an April referendum to ask voters to extend the powers of the military to patrol the streets and control prisons.

Recent survey results from Ecuador-based public opinion firm Cedatos showed that more than two-thirds of respondents approve of Mr. Noboa鈥檚 presidency and more than half support his decision to summon voters to the polls.

Police entered the Mexican embassy in Quito, the capital, to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted criminal and fugitive who had been living there since December. In his first comments on the operation, Mr. Noboa said April 8 he has made 鈥渆xceptional decisions to protect national security, the rule of law and the dignity of a population that rejects any type of impunity for criminals, corrupt people or narco-terrorists.鈥�

鈥淢y obligation is to comply with the rulings of the justice system, and we could not allow sentenced criminals involved in very serious crimes to be given asylum,鈥� which, Mr. Noboa argued, would violate the Vienna Convention and other international accords. In a statement posted on the social platform X, Mr. Noboa did not mention Mr. Glas by name but suggested he was in 鈥渋mminent flight risk.鈥�

Diplomatic premises are considered foreign soil and 鈥渋nviolable鈥� under the Vienna treaties and host country law enforcement agencies are not allowed to enter without permission from the ambassador. Mexico plans to challenge the raid at the World Court in The Hague.

Still, Mr. Noboa鈥檚 display of force quickly earned him praise at home.

鈥淚 am in favor of President Noboa鈥檚 actions. I think it is a courageous act ... and I think it is going to strengthen him,鈥� college professor Gabriela Sandoval said. 鈥淭he priority is to clean, sanitize, continue with a process as important as President Noboa鈥檚 to put the house in order.鈥�

Ecuadorians will vote for president in February. Mr. Noboa is eligible to run for reelection.

Confidence in Mr. Noboa is such that business groups think the global condemnation of the raid will not impact commerce or the already thorny trade agreement negotiations between Ecuador and Mexico, which represent a key barrier to Ecuador鈥檚 interest in joining Latin America鈥檚 Pacific Alliance trade bloc.

鈥淭hese political and current issues will somehow pass, and then, relations will go back to normal,鈥� said Roberto Aspiazu, vice president of the Binational Ecuador-Mexico Chamber. 鈥淪ooner or later, that trade agreement is also going to be a reality because the negotiation is there and must be resumed at some point.鈥�

Still, the timing of the diplomatic breakdown with Mexico could be particularly unfortunate for Ecuador and counterproductive for Mr. Noboa鈥檚 crimefighting ambitions, said Will Freeman, a fellow of Latin American studies at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Ecuador was one of the calmest countries in Latin America until about four years ago, when Mexican and Colombian cartels expanded their established Ecuadorian operations, settling into coastal cities and exploiting world-class ports to ship hundreds of millions of dollars of cocaine produced in neighboring Colombia and Peru.

鈥淓cuadorian gangs are criminal powers in their own right, but they have brokered alliances with Mexico鈥檚 Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel cartels,鈥� Mr. Freeman said. 鈥淚n an ideal world, Noboa would seek out the Mexican government鈥檚 cooperation to combat the gangs and their international partners, but clearly, with the break in diplomatic relations, that鈥檚 not happening.鈥�

And though it remains unclear whether Mr. Noboa expected the global pushback his decision received, some of that criticism might weigh more heavily than others.

The U.S., which during Mr. Noboa鈥檚 administration has supplied Ecuador with crucial equipment and training to combat the drug cartels, reiterated the importance of complying with international law following last week鈥檚 raid.

鈥淭he United States takes very seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect diplomatic missions,鈥� said Brian Nichols, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. 鈥淲e encourage Ecuador and Mexico to resolve their difference amicably.鈥�

This story was reported by The Associated Press. Garcia Cano reported from Mexico City.