Nicaragua's prisoner release: A win or loss for human rights?
| Mexico City
Ulises Mendieta, a young Nicaraguan journalist, knows something about exile 鈥� particularly what can and cannot be accomplished living in it.
For nearly three years, he has helped build a Nicaraguan news site, collaborating with sources back home to cover national politics and share information beyond President Daniel Ortega鈥檚 party line. It鈥檚 work that puts sources 鈥� and his loved ones still in Nicaragua 鈥� at risk, but it allows him to push for a 鈥渇ree鈥� Nicaragua, he says.
Now, many more will be faced with navigating how to advocate for democracy and freedom of information in the increasingly authoritarian Central American nation when living abroad. On Feb. 9, 222 Nicaraguans, including high-profile politicians, journalists, activists, and students, were sent into exile after months and sometimes years behind bars on often sham or trumped-up charges brought by Mr. Ortega鈥檚 repressive government. They were put on a U.S. charter flight to Washington, D.C.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onPolitical exiles navigate two currents: the relief of safety against the loss of home. Prisoners released from Nicaragua to the U.S. must confront the limitations of what they can accomplish from afar.
As these individuals face the complicated duality of exile 鈥� relief in personal safety, or in some cases reuniting with family, contrasting with the challenge of losing a home and leaving others behind 鈥撀爐hey are also likely to confront limitations in democracy-building with Mr. Ortega鈥檚 power consolidated.
鈥淭he release of the 222 people who were living under terrible circumstances for a prolonged period of time is a huge humanitarian gain,鈥� says Richard Feinberg, professor emeritus of international political economy at the University of California, San Diego. 鈥淏ut, if you鈥檙e looking at the politics ... I think Daniel Ortega has rid himself of the leadership of the opposition; strengthening, not weakening, his authoritarian grasp on Nicaraguan politics.鈥�
There鈥檚 鈥渘o counterweight to the local government,鈥� explains one Nicaraguan academic, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the repercussions for critiquing Mr. Ortega鈥檚 government. 鈥淓ven compared to other dictatorships in Latin America,聽local resistance is extremely weak in Nicaragua,鈥� he says, adding that this weakness restricts how successfully Nicaraguans can push for democratic change from outside the country鈥檚 borders.
Mr. Ortega, a former revolutionary, rose to fame in the 1970s and 鈥�80s after helping the Sandinista Revolution topple a decadeslong dictatorship. He went on to lead for 11 years following the 1979 overthrow. But since 2006, when he won the presidency once again, he has centralized power (even making his wife his vice president), chipped away at free expression, shuttered media outlets and nongovernmental organizations, and cracked down on political dissent,聽especially since anti-government protests erupted in the spring of 2018.
Many of the political prisoners released last week were arrested and charged in the lead-up to the widely discredited 2021 presidential vote. The broad arrests 鈥� and the exodus of many objectors 鈥� eliminated any semblance of competition for Mr. Ortega, ushering in his fourth consecutive term.
The U.S. has responded to the human rights violations by imposing sanctions on Mr. Ortega and his family, as well as against high-ranking government officials and the mining and gold sectors.
Many foresee a difficult year ahead, with economic growth projected at less than 2% amid growing inflation. Nearly 604,500 Nicaraguans fled between 2018 and 2022, half of that in 2022 alone, according to Nicaraguan news site聽Confidencial.
A win for human rights?
In this month鈥檚 prisoner release, as soon as they arrived in the U.S. the Ortega government stripped them of their Nicaraguan citizenship. Spain offered citizenship, and the U.S. has granted the individuals two years of humanitarian parole, allowing them to remain in the U.S. and apply for asylum, if they choose.
In a statement Feb. 9, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the release as a step 鈥渢oward addressing human rights abuses鈥� in Nicaragua. But back home Mr. Ortega echoed a long-touted idea that anyone opposing his government was in the pocket of the U.S., saying Washington should 鈥渢ake their mercenaries.鈥� Over the weekend, hundreds of thousands marched in Nicaragua, celebrating the 鈥渟overeignty of their country鈥� and the expulsion of 鈥渢he terrorists,鈥� as state-run news sites referred to the former prisoners, parroting Mr. Ortega.
鈥淭his is a moment of great uncertainty,鈥� says the Nicaraguan academic. 鈥淚t would be a mistake to assume this is the first step to some great opening or loosening of the police state. It could just as well be the opposite; [Mr. Ortega] taking this as a first step toward tightening things further.鈥�
The release took everyone by surprise, with relatives of former political prisoners in the U.S. rushing to Washington to embrace their loved ones. Many had believed they would never see their family again. Amid the relief and elation are questions around what happens next.
Few are hopeful for positive change inside Nicaragua in the short term. The government has spent the past several years 鈥渂uilding out their security apparatus鈥� control throughout the entire country, adding to their networks of informants within Nicaragua,鈥� says Kai Thaler, an assistant professor focusing on authoritarianism at the University of California, Santa Barbara. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really, really hard to organize or engage in new protests, because people now know, 鈥榓lright, even if I鈥檓 not a very prominent person, I can still wind up in jail, facing torture and mistreatment,鈥欌�� he says.
On top of that, the government has all but erased civil society, closing more than 400 NGOs since the 2018 protests.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really bittersweet,鈥� says Mr. Mendieta, the journalist, now with asylum in Costa Rica. 鈥淭here鈥檚 the joy from the news of the political prisoners鈥� release, but at the same time, the realization that the regime has created an environment of self-censorship, and everyone feels its weight. You can鈥檛 say anything on social media, you can鈥檛 say anything to your neighbors. Even if Ortega were to go tomorrow, it will be hard to re-create a culture of freedom of expression and respect for human rights.鈥�
For some, that is where the released prisoners and other Nicaraguans living abroad come in.
Activism in exile
Some are already speaking out. Jos茅 Ricardo Mu帽oz L贸pez, a young political activist involved with the Nicaraguan Democratic Force who was imprisoned for four months, told聽聽he plans to hold demonstrations against Mr. Ortega鈥檚 repression globally, demanding the release of remaining political prisoners in Nicaragua. But once his humanitarian parole expires in two years, he wants to 鈥渞eturn to Nicaragua, to defend social justice,鈥� he said.
鈥淭here is always diaspora activism and activism in exile. The problem for Nicaragua鈥檚 opposition for a while has been unity,鈥� says Dr. Thaler. 鈥淣ow the challenge is going to be, if they鈥檙e going to continue speaking out in exile, how that is coordinated, or what people see as potential options for still achieving political change inside Nicaragua.鈥�
Mr. Mendieta says he doesn鈥檛 expect everyone who was exiled to commit to publicly fighting for Nicaragua鈥檚 future. Although he was never imprisoned, his journey out of Nicaragua came with its share of challenges. 鈥淭hey are in a vulnerable situation, and they need to first take care of themselves and their loved ones,鈥� he says.
But 鈥淣icaraguans have heart鈥� and those forced to leave home 鈥渨ill always want a free Nicaragua,鈥� he says. He expects that anyone, whether they鈥檙e exiled or make the difficult choice to leave, is going to 鈥渇ight in his or her own way, to do what they can for the future of Nicaragua,鈥� he says, 鈥渆ven if they aren鈥檛 super visible.鈥�
