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How will newly sworn-in Lula lead a polarized Brazil?

鈥淏ack then, he could talk about Brazil being united. Now it is divided and won鈥檛 heal soon,鈥 said Lula voter Cla煤dio Arantes.

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Andre Penner/AP
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, far left, rides in an open car to Congress for his swearing-in ceremony, in Brasilia, Brazil, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023.

Brazil鈥檚 Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva was sworn in as president on Sunday, assuming office for the third time after thwarting far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro鈥檚 reelection bid.

His return to power marks the culmination of a聽political comeback聽that is both thrilling supporters and enraging opponents in a聽fiercely polarized nation.

鈥淥ur message to Brazil is one of hope and reconstruction,鈥 the president, known popularly as Lula, said in a speech in Congress鈥 Lower House after signing the document that formally instates him as president. 鈥淭he great edifice of rights, sovereignty and development that this nation built has been systematically demolished in recent years. And to re-erect this edifice, we are going to direct all our efforts.鈥

Sunday afternoon in Brasilia's main esplanade, the party was on. Tens of thousands of supporters decked out in the red of Lula鈥檚 Workers鈥 Party cheered after his swearing in. They also celebrated when the president said he would send a report about the Bolsonaro presidency to authorities that could investigate the far-right leader based on their findings.

Lula鈥檚 presidency is unlikely to be like his previous two mandates, coming after the tightest presidential race in more than three decades in Brazil and聽resistance to his taking office聽by some of his opponents, political analysts say.

The leftist defeated Mr. Bolsonaro in the Oct. 30 vote by less than 2 percentage points. For months, Mr. Bolsonaro had sown doubts about the reliability of Brazil鈥檚 electronic vote and his loyal supporters were loath to accept the loss.

Many have gathered outside military barracks since, questioning results and pleading with the armed forces to prevent Lula from taking office.

His most die-hard backers resorted to what some authorities and incoming members of Lula鈥檚 administration labeled acts of terrorism 鈥 something the country had not seen since the early 1980s, and which has prompted security concerns about inauguration day events.

鈥淚n 2003, the ceremony was very beautiful. There wasn鈥檛 this bad, heavy climate,鈥 said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, referring to the year Lula first took office. 鈥淭oday, it鈥檚 a climate of terror.鈥

Lula has made it his mission to heal the divided nation. But he will have to do so while navigating more challenging economic conditions than he enjoyed in his first two terms, when the global commodities boom proved a windfall for Brazil.

At the time, his administration's flagship welfare program helped lift tens of millions of impoverished people聽into the middle class. Many Brazilians traveled abroad for the first time. He left office with a personal approval rating of 83%.

In the intervening years, Brazil鈥檚 economy plunged into two deep recessions 鈥 first, during the tenure of his handpicked successor, and then during the pandemic 鈥 and ordinary Brazilians suffered greatly.

Lula has said his priorities are fighting poverty, and investing in education and health. He has also said he will聽bring illegal deforestation of the Amazon to a halt. He sought support from political moderates to form a broad front and defeat Mr. Bolsonaro,聽then tapped some聽of them to聽serve in his Cabinet.

Cla煤dio Arantes, a pensioner, carried an old Lula campaign flag on his way to the esplanade. The lifelong Lula supporter attended his 2003 inauguration, and agreed that this time feels different.

鈥淏ack then, he could talk about Brazil being united. Now it is divided and won鈥檛 heal soon,鈥 Mr. Arantes said. 鈥淚 trust his intelligence to make this national unity administration work so we never have a Bolsonaro again.鈥

Given the nation鈥檚 political fault lines, it is highly unlikely Lula ever reattains the popularity he once enjoyed, or even sees his approval rating rise above 50%, said Maur铆cio Santoro, a political science professor at Rio de Janeiro鈥檚 State University.

Furthermore, Santoro said, the credibility of Lula and his Workers鈥 Party were assailed by a sprawling corruption investigation. Party officials were jailed, including Lula 鈥 until his convictions were annulled on procedural grounds. The Supreme Court then ruled that the judge presiding over the case had colluded with prosecutors to secure a conviction.

Lula and his supporters have maintained he was railroaded. Others were willing to look past possible malfeasance as a means to unseat Mr. Bolsonaro and bring the nation back together.

But Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 backers refuse to accept someone they view as a criminal returning to the highest office. And with tensions running hot, a series of events has prompted fear that violence could erupt on inauguration day.

On Dec. 12, dozens of people聽tried to invade a federal police building聽in Brasilia, and burned cars and buses in other areas of the city. Then on Christmas Eve, police arrested a 54-year-old man who admitted to making a bomb that was found on a fuel truck headed to Brasilia鈥檚 airport.

He had been camped outside Brasilia鈥檚 army headquarters with hundreds of other Bolsonaro supporters since Nov. 12. He told police he was ready for war against communism, and planned the attack with people he had met at the protests, according to excerpts of his deposition released by local media. The next day, police found explosive devices and several bulletproof vests in a forested area on the federal district鈥檚 outskirts.

Lula鈥檚 incoming Justice Minister, Fl谩vio Dino, this week called for federal authorities to put an end to the 鈥渁ntidemocratic鈥 protests, calling them 鈥渋ncubators of terrorists.鈥

In response to a request from Lula鈥檚 team, the current justice minister authorized deployment of the national guard until Jan. 2, and Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes banned people from carrying firearms in Brasilia during these days.

鈥淭his is the fruit of political polarization, of political extremism,鈥 said Nara Pav茫o, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco. Ms. Pav茫o stressed that Mr. Bolsonaro, who mostly vanished from the political scene since he lost his reelection bid, was slow to disavow recent incidents.

鈥淗is silence is strategic: Bolsonaro needs to keep Bolsonarismo alive,鈥 Ms. Pav茫o said.

Mr. Bolsonaro finally condemned the bomb plot in a Dec. 30 farewell address on social media,聽hours before flying to the United States.

Lawyer Eduardo Coutinho will be there. He bought a flight to Brasilia as a Christmas present to himself.

鈥淚 wish I were here when Bolsonaro鈥檚 plane took off, that is the only thing that makes me almost as happy as tomorrow鈥檚 event,鈥 Mr. Coutinho said after singing Lula campaign jingles on the plane. 鈥淚鈥檓 not usually so over-the-top, but we need to let it out and I came here just to do that. Brazil needs this to move on.鈥

This story was reported by The Associated Press.聽AP writer Diane Jeantet contributed from Rio de Janeiro.

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