海角大神

Donning a black suit and a red, green, and white presidential sash, the man raised his right hand and swore his allegiance to the Mexican people as their 鈥渓egitimate president.鈥� A crowd of tens of thousands of supporters packed into the historic Z贸calo plaza to hear him.

The problem? He had lost the election months earlier.

Perhaps one of the most infamous cases of a defeated presidential candidate claiming fraud and refusing to concede, for nearly two months in 2006 Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador organized protests and encampments in downtown Mexico City, driving the capital to a halt and feeding distrust in the electoral system. He鈥檇 lost by just a 0.56 percentage point, and his request for a total recount was denied by the top electoral court. Voter confidence in the electoral institute plummeted by nearly 20 percentage points to 43% by 2008.

But today, as political figures from Donald Trump in the United States to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil cast doubts on their electoral systems, Mexico鈥檚 National Electoral Institute, known as INE, is one of the most trusted civilian-run institutions in the country.

And in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection in the U.S. or threats from President Bolsonaro that he will not accept electoral results if he loses in Brazil鈥檚 Oct. 2 race, the aftermath of Mexico鈥檚 deeply contested 2006 vote may offer some important lessons on maintaining 鈥� or regaining 鈥� citizen trust in elections. Mr. L贸pez Obrador eventually backed down, running for president twice more and finally winning by a landslide in 2018. He鈥檚 halfway through his six-year term, and INE has nearly 70% public trust.

Mexico鈥檚 democracy isn鈥檛 often held up as an example to follow, especially 鈥済iven that it鈥檚 become one of the most violent democracies in the world,鈥� says Guillermo Trejo, professor of comparative politics at the University of Notre Dame. 鈥淏ut, on the electoral dimension, there are lessons for other countries.鈥�

鈥淥ne was to create an election management system that is really well-known, well-funded, and that works well,鈥� he says. 鈥淯ntil recently in the U.S., no one knew who was organizing elections, who was in charge. In Mexico, everyone knows.鈥�

Reforms at the top

For the past eight years, Lorenzo C贸rdova Vianello has been the one in charge.

On a recent morning, the president of INE ticks off the changes the body has undergone in an effort to regain voter trust 鈥� from a more proactive communications approach that includes combating fake news to a sophisticated identification card system that most citizens rely on 鈥� to avoid a repeat of 2006.

Whitney Eulich

Lorenzo C贸rdova Vianello, president of Mexico鈥檚 National Electoral Institute, stands in his office on Sept. 12, 2022.

Widespread reforms to the electoral institute in 2007 and 2014 turned it into a national body with centralized control over all elections, including electoral training, voter registration, and auditing campaign spending. The reforms also prohibited anyone 鈥� parties, citizens, private companies, and others 鈥� from buying radio and TV airtime (parties get free government-regulated time on radio and TV) in an effort to address allegations that 鈥渢hird parties鈥� were spreading misinformation about President L贸pez Obrador in the lead-up to the 2006 vote.

But regaining citizen trust went beyond legal reforms, Dr. C贸rdova says. 鈥淭he INE is present in the wallets and the bags of all Mexicans over the age of 18,鈥� he says, referring to the voter ID card that serves as one of the most commonly used forms of identification in the country. The name recognition 鈥� and confidence that personal, biometric data is kept safe by INE 鈥� translates to a baseline comfort with the institute that exists before anyone even walks into a polling booth on election day, he says.

INE also struck deals with major social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter to monitor and correct misinformation.

鈥淚f the [U.S.] electoral system is founded on trust,鈥� says Dr. C贸rdova, whose nine-year, congressionally appointed term ends next year, 鈥渢he Mexican electoral system is based on mistrust.鈥�

Mexico has a long history of political control by one party, the PRI. Incidents like a 1988 election where an opposition candidate was in the lead 鈥� until the power went out 鈥� are etched in the nation鈥檚 collective memory as evidence that corrupt people in power have always been able to manipulate results for their own benefit.

鈥淎ll these numerous rules, conditions, prohibitions, they have been demanded to combat the distrust,鈥� Mr. C贸rdova says.

Counting ballots together

Marco Fern谩ndez was selected through the INE lottery system to serve as a citizen poll worker during the June 2021 midterm elections. That meant attending training sessions in the lead-up to the vote, setting up the polling station with a handful of neighbors, and overseeing and assisting the voting process 鈥� including counting ballots 鈥� on election day. The professor in the school of government at Tec de Monterrey says this tradition of having citizens run polling stations, which began in the late 1990s as a response to earlier threats to democracy, is one of the aspects of Mexican elections that continues to build the most trust.

鈥淯ndoubtedly Mexicans trust their peers more than their leadership,鈥� says Dr. Fern谩ndez, the anti-corruption program coordinator at the think tank M茅xico Eval煤a.

As political polarization grows, Dr. Trejo says having neighbors with different political beliefs randomly selected to work together to help their community vote could serve as an antidote. 鈥淢aybe they get to know each other a little better. Maybe they鈥檙e able to put some of their differences aside, organize an election by the book, and contribute, in a way, to mitigate polarization,鈥� he says. Being tapped to run a polling station is something he sees as a point of pride for Mexicans, bringing the population together in a way you rarely see, except, perhaps, following natural disasters. 鈥淵ou see levels of citizen engagement and duty to community,鈥� Dr. Trejo says.

鈥淎nything could happen鈥�

Valeria Metz, who runs a boutique PR firm in Mexico City, voted in her first presidential election in 2006, casting her ballot for Mr. L贸pez Obrador. When he took to the Z贸calo calling for every ballot in every voting station to be recounted, she and her mother eagerly joined the protests, walking through the crowds and feeling a sense of civic duty.

But by the time he backed down, she was so disillusioned that she didn鈥檛 even bother voting in 2012. By 2018, her vote helped Mr. L贸pez Obrador clinch a landslide presidential victory.聽鈥淭he INE has changed and improved鈥� since 2006, Ms. Metz explains. 鈥淏ut Mexicans, we know anything could happen. We鈥檝e seen candidates killed, elections robbed, organized crime influencing politics,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e are a country of impunity, and that鈥檚 our biggest problem.鈥�

President L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 2018 victory 鈥� as well as the many victories of his Morena party on the national and local stages in the years since 鈥� has given the INE an added boost of legitimacy among former critics.

But the president himself still distrusts the body. He rails against the election authority in his daily press conferences and last spring proposed a handful of amendments that he claims would end electoral fraud and finally transform the country into a 鈥渢rue democracy.鈥�

The reform would politicize INE, essentially doing away with the current setup to create a smaller, centralized body with a shoestring budget. Senior leadership would be elected by popular vote, instead of by Congress, and the electoral court would become part of the Supreme Court. The reforms aren鈥檛 expected to pass, but the proposals could damage trust.

鈥淭hirty years ago it was common to analyze democracies by groups: young democracies, like those in Latin America vs. established democracies鈥� like the U.S., says Dr. C贸rdova. 鈥淭oday, the problems faced by democracies are global 鈥� like fake news, disinformation, lack of credibility in political parties, the concentration of power in the executive.鈥�

鈥淏uilding confidence is a slow process, measured in small increments,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut loss of trust can happen in an instant 鈥� and it鈥檚 measured in kilometers.鈥�