Mexican president survives recall: Democracy at work or populist stunt?
| MEXICO CITY
President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador survived a recall vote over the weekend with nearly 92%聽of those who voted saying he should 鈥渃ontinue in the presidency of the Republic until his term ends.鈥�
It was Mexico鈥檚 first-ever recall vote, and the president, with his approval polling at 60%, was never seriously at risk of being booted from office. In fact, Mr. L贸pez Obrador was one of the biggest proponents of the vote, known as the 谤别惫辞肠补肠颈贸苍 de mandato.
Partly for that reason, turnout among Mexican voters did not even reach 18%. So what was the point?
Why We Wrote This
Carrying out a presidential recall vote would seem to ensure that the popular will 鈥� and democracy 鈥� are protected. But if there鈥檚 no real clamor for a vote, can it become another tool of power?
For some, including the president, the recall was a new, important democratic tool that puts power in the hands of the people as Mexico鈥檚 two-decade-old democracy matures. But for critics, the vote was an unnecessary populist publicity stunt designed either to feed the president鈥檚 ego or to allow him to promote himself and his party and garner ammunition to defend future policy moves.
鈥淒emocracy needs to become a habit,鈥� President L贸pez Obrador, often referred to by his initials, AMLO, said after casting his ballot Sunday morning. 鈥淭hat way no one on any scale is going to feel absolute.鈥�
He expanded on the theme at his Monday morning press conference. 鈥淲e are in a new stage, not only of representative democracy, but of participative democracy,鈥� he said.
Introducing a recall that could take place halfway through a president鈥檚 six-year term was one of Mr. L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 campaign promises before his election as president in 2018. Instruments of direct democracy have played a central role in his presidency and earlier, when he was mayor of Mexico City.
Yet the recall cost upward of $78 million at a time the government is imposing austerity measures. A February poll indicated that some 50% of Mexicans didn鈥檛 think it was necessary.
AMLO鈥檚 declaration of victory, despite turnout not reaching the 40% participation threshold required to make the vote binding, raises questions about what his 鈥渨in鈥� truly means 鈥� for the rest of his administration and the future of Mexican democracy.
In celebrating his victory at his press conference, the president聽said the required participation to make a referendum binding should be lowered to 20% or 30%.
Mr. L贸pez Obrador won in 2018 on a platform of bold promises to transform Mexico 鈥� root out corruption, lift up poor people, create more jobs, and change the country鈥檚 approach to fighting violence. But halfway through his term, he hasn鈥檛 delivered on many of these pledges. Amid the pandemic, poverty still rankles Mexico and violence hasn鈥檛 abated.
鈥淚n a way he won just by getting to hold the recall,鈥� says Jeffrey Weldon, a political science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico in Mexico City. 鈥淗e is someone who really needs to have love shown to him.鈥�
What will it change?
On Sunday morning, Erika Ramos, an administrative assistant in Mexico City, waited for a hair appointment outside a salon instead of voting in the recall.
鈥淲hy bother? It won鈥檛 change anything,鈥� she says, adding that she voted for Mr. L贸pez Obrador for president but now describes her support as 鈥渓ukewarm.鈥�
While the opposition vocally criticized the recall, there was no organized effort to take advantage of the vote to try to push AMLO from office. Many told voters merely to boycott the procedure.
鈥淭hey expected, in a sense, that they wouldn鈥檛 win. So why spend the money and time to just give [AMLO] a better showing鈥� via high turnout, says Joshua Spivak, a global expert in recall votes and author of 鈥淩ecall Elections: From Alexander Hamilton to Gavin Newsom.鈥�
Turnout was low compared with most elections, but higher than what many observers expected. Only 7% of voters turned up for the last referendum vote, which took place in 2021, on whether former presidents should face justice for alleged misdeeds while in office.
Leading up to the vote, some critics feared that low turnout could be used to discredit the National Electoral Institute, and potentially undermine the results of future elections. The country鈥檚 electoral watchdog set up the recall vote with nearly half the budget typically allotted for an election, and Mr. L贸pez Obrador has spent the past several months attacking the organization and its arrangements.
The recall may serve as a bump for AMLO, but analysts like Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of Mexico-based Integralia Consultores, say the introduction of a recall could change the rules of the game for future presidents.
鈥淩ight now we have a very popular president, his mandate is not in jeopardy, but what about ... when the next 谤别惫辞肠补肠颈贸苍聽de mandato may take place?鈥� Mr. Ugalde asked in a Wilson Center on the recall last week.
鈥淥f course, this can be an instrument of the people. But let鈥檚 be clear, the civic culture in Mexico is small,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his could be an instrument for instability.鈥�
It could also change how future presidents plan their policy approach, he says. The six-year term suddenly 鈥渂ecomes four years and a plus of two additional years if you pass the 谤别惫辞肠补肠颈贸苍,鈥� Mr. Ugalde said. 鈥淚 think it will change forever how the logic of presidential politics work in Mexico.鈥�
Governments around the world may have legal pathways for pushing an unpopular leader out of office, but they鈥檙e typically limited to state or local politicians 鈥� not commonly for presidents.
In introducing this recall tool, which can only be tapped halfway through a president鈥檚 term and requires gathering some 2.75 million signatures to put into action, Mexico joins the ranks of some of the poster children of democratic struggles in the region, like Venezuela and Bolivia, both of which have held recall votes.
鈥淲hen he sent this bill to Congress in 2019, AMLO thought that there would be huge numbers of people demanding his removal from office, that the opposition would be mobilizing Mexicans to do that,鈥� Professor Weldon says, calling the vote 鈥渋rrelevant.鈥�
鈥淗e has a lot of critics, but very few are demanding that he leave office.鈥�
Missed chance for debate
Some warn that Mr. L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 victory could cloud an important missed opportunity to publicly dissect his record during the first half of his term.
鈥淭he real danger is that everybody will forget [his win] except him, who will push it,鈥� says Mr. Spivak. 鈥溾�橳he voters gave me a stamp, they verified my policies, they like it. Let鈥檚 do more!鈥欌��
Indeed, in a recorded victory speech late Sunday night, AMLO said as much. 鈥淢ore than 15 million Mexicans are happy and want me to continue,鈥� he said. 鈥淚鈥檓 staying, and we are going to continue transforming our country.鈥�
The vote was presented as a chance to 鈥渞atify AMLO, instead of looking at what he鈥檚 actually done,鈥� adds Professor Weldon. 鈥淗e will use this to continue his path of polarization.鈥� As a populist president, AMLO 鈥渘eeds this gasoline to keep his base alive,鈥� he says.
But Rafa Flores, an engineer in the northern city of Monterrey, disagrees. He voted to keep AMLO in office and is thrilled that Mexicans will have a new tool in their arsenal to further develop democratic participation.
鈥淪ome people see it as useless, egotistical, a waste of money,鈥� says Mr. Flores by phone. 鈥淭his is part of a maturing democracy. I hope that people will get used to being consulted on how their government is doing and delivering.鈥�
