Task for Venezuela's new 'president': make it more than a title
| Caracas, Venezuela, and Mexico City
Juan Guaid贸, leader of Venezuela鈥檚 National Assembly and until last week a relative unknown, stood in front of hundreds of thousands of opposition protesters Wednesday to swear in Venezuela鈥檚 new president: himself.
that Venezuela鈥檚 presidential election last year wasn鈥檛 valid, unrecognized by many nations, so his country is now without a president. It鈥檚 the job of the National Assembly to appoint an acting president and hold a new vote when that鈥檚 the case, according to the Constitution.
The interim presidency was quickly recognized by the United States, and later backed by a growing list of nations including Canada, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile. Nicol谩s Maduro, who was sworn in for his second presidential term earlier this month despite his widely disputed May victory, responded by ending diplomatic relations with the US.
Why We Wrote This
For years, people inside and outside Venezuela have debated how to halt its spiraling crises. Will a young politician declaring himself acting president prove the answer, or a high-stakes complication?
Venezuela has suffered a pile-up of political, economic, and humanitarian crises in recent years, inducing hyperinflation and severe shortages. An estimated 3 million people have fled the country.听Guaid贸 called for nationwide protests Jan. 23, marking the 61st anniversary of Venezuelan democracy. It wasn鈥檛 the first time Maduro has faced vocal opposition. Guaid贸鈥檚 unifying message for the opposition has ushered Venezuela to this moment. But a confluence of events 鈥� including citizens鈥� struggles, protests in former government strongholds, lagging oil production, and increasing international isolation 鈥� have laid the groundwork for someone like him to challenge Mr. Maduro鈥檚 legitimacy.
鈥淓verything synced in place for this to happen,鈥� says Guillermo Zubillaga, head of the Venezuela Working Group at the America鈥檚 Society/Council of the Americas. 鈥淭he crisis is a driver and an impetus for everyone to want something different: hyperinflation makes salaries worthless in a week, people are cooking with wood, and the trash isn鈥檛 collected,鈥� he says.
Now that the international community has overwhelmingly rallied behind Guaid贸, the question is what Maduro 鈥� and perhaps more important the armed forces 鈥� will do next. From sham elections to a 2017 attempt to dissolve the National Assembly, the only opposition-run branch of the government, Maduro has aimed to consolidate his grip on power. Top of mind now is where the armed forces, who were deeply loyal to Maduro鈥檚 predecessor, will fall: Splitting their support between two self-declared leaders, desert the shell of the project once known as 21st Century Socialism, or step in line behind Maduro.
Who is Juan Guaid贸?
Opposition leaders have for decades been their own worst enemies when it comes to winning over the public. Aside from the 2015 National Assembly elections, which gave the opposition majority control, the opposition has largely been defined by its infighting, and its upper-class leaders鈥� failure to connect with Venezuelan voters.
Guaid贸 doesn鈥檛 fit that mold. He grew up in a large,听middle-class family from coastal Vargas state. In 1999, the same year Hugo Ch谩vez became president, his family survived one of the worst natural disasters in Venezuela鈥檚 recent history: a mudslide that killed thousands, and left countless others homeless.
Those who know Guaid贸 well say the landslides marked his life and gave him a sense of social responsibility. The 35-year-old industrial engineer graduated from Andr茅s Bello听Catholic University, where he was part of a student movement protesting then-President Ch谩vez in 2007. At the end of 2006, Ch谩vez had ordered the closure of one of the most important television stations in the country, and called for a referendum to change the constitution and allow for unlimited reelection. It was his first and only electoral defeat in what would become a 14-year presidency.
鈥淛uan was one of the main organizers [of the student protests],鈥� says a former engineering classmate, who requested anonymity for his personal security. 鈥淭hat awoke his political conscience. He was always thinking about helping,鈥� he says, describing Guaid贸 as honest and methodical. 鈥淎s a good engineer, he always seeks to improve the process.鈥�
During his foray into student politics, he fell in with opposition leader Leopoldo L贸pez, a large part of why he was picked to lead the National Assembly this year.听
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how to say this politely, but [Guaid贸] is where he is because he is Leopoldo L贸pez鈥檚 guy in liberty,鈥� says Francisco Toro, a Venezuelan journalist and founder of the Caracas Chronicles. Mr. Lopez was sentenced to almost 14 years in prison in 2015 and has been under house arrest for the past nearly two years.
鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 do much that [Lopez] doesn鈥檛 agree with,鈥� Mr. Toro says. 鈥淥n the other hand, he鈥檚 a talented young guy, dynamic, and handling himself well.鈥�
Aside from his family鈥檚 socioeconomic background, Guaid贸 has another key thing going for him: his age.听He was a young teen when Ch谩vez came to power, which makes it harder to peg him as part of the old guard blamed for the extreme inequality that helped thrust Ch谩vez to power in the first place. He was also too young to play a part in the 2002 coup attempt and other events that long tarnished politicians looking to defeat Chavismo.
鈥淗e really carries no baggage that could discredit a politician,鈥� says Mr. Zubillaga, and has a unifying 鈥渕essage of peaceful transition.鈥� He鈥檚 talked about allowing for humanitarian aid to start entering the country, called for fresh elections within two months, and he鈥檚 offered amnesty to the military, another key group he鈥檚 appealed to via his own family鈥檚 military past.
Last year, Venezuela鈥檚 opposition was so decimated that few believed anyone could revitalize its image. The splintered parties allowed Maduro to run essentially unopposed, with part of the opposition sitting the election out and another portion putting forth a candidate at the last moment.
鈥淲e were living a period of low credibility and lots of internal conflicts,鈥� says Freddy Guevara, the former vice president of the National Assembly, who is currently exiled in the Chilean embassy in Caracas.
One country, two presidents?
Guaid贸鈥檚 offering a 鈥渂reath of fresh air鈥� to the opposition, Mr. Guevara says. To the international community, his movement also presents an opportunity to do something about the increasingly dire economic and humanitarian situation听in recent years.
From neighboring nations dealing with the brunt of the Venezuelan exodus, to the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil (the US), the global community jumped at the opportunity to back Guaid贸鈥檚 announcement.听For years, outside players have vacillated between issuing harshly worded statements against government repression or encouraging dialogue, hands tied by听the overwhelming anti-interventionist tendencies in the region.
The White House said its decision to back Guaid贸 was based on the Inter-American Democratic Charter听that all Western Hemisphere nations other than Cuba signed on to in 2001. In a press briefing it said the US has only begun to 鈥渟cratch the surface鈥� of economic measures it could use to pressure Maduro into accepting a democratic transition.
Venezuela could find itself with two parallel governments 鈥� one run by the opposition and recognized internationally, but without control over state functions.听
A lot now comes down to key players like the military 鈥� and which leader they choose听to back.
Maduro鈥檚 defense minister Vladimir Padrino L贸pez tweeted a rejection of Guaid贸鈥檚 maneuver yesterday, but stopped short of overtly backing Maduro.
鈥淭he soldiers of this nation won鈥檛 accept a president imposed in the shadows or self-proclaimed unlawfully. The National Armed Forces defend the constitution and guarantee national sovereignty,鈥� he tweeted.
鈥淣o one wants to be the first to jump鈥� away from Maduro, says Toro. 鈥淭he troops and midranking officers, of course they want to jump, they just don鈥檛 want to go to jail for it,鈥� he says of soldiers鈥� disenchantment with the status quo. One of the worst-case scenarios Toro envisions is the possibility that only听鈥減art of the armed forces will jump 鈥� that鈥檚 how civil wars start,鈥� he says.
On Wednesday, seas of Venezuelans decked out in the yellow, blue, and red of the听flag filled city streets across the country at Guaid贸鈥檚 behest. Hands waved in the air as their new interim leader raised his own to be sworn in. 鈥淲e have a new president! We have a new president!鈥� people shouted immediately. Videos of tearful reactions of Venezuelans abroad spread quickly across social media.
鈥淚鈥檓 so glad I never gave up on Venezuela,鈥� says Maria Jos茅 Vicentini, a retiree in the Caracas crowd. 鈥淣ow, I can really see the light at the end of the tunnel.鈥�
Howard LaFranchi contributed reporting from Washington.
